scholarly journals INVESTMENT, IRREVERSIBILITY, AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENERGY BEET–BASED ETHANOL

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
KASSU WAMISHO HOSSISO ◽  
DAVID RIPPLINGER
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Irreversible Investment ◽  
Energy Beet ◽  
Gross Margins ◽  
Entry Decisions

Abstract:This study evaluates optimal investment decision rules for an energy beet ethanol firm to exercise the option to invest, mothball, reactivate, and exit the ethanol market, considering uncertainty and volatility in the market price of ethanol, feedstock, and irreversible investment. A real options framework is used to compute gross margins of ethanol that trigger entry into and exit from the ethanol market. Results show that volatility in ethanol gross margins has much greater effects on exit and entry decisions than investment costs, and it also causes firms to wait longer before entering the ethanol market and, once active, to wait longer before exiting.

scholarly journals The Term Structure of Variance Swap Rates and Optimal Variance Swap Investments

2010 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 1279-1310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Egloff ◽  
Markus Leippold ◽  
Liuren Wu
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Structure Variation ◽  
Variance Swap ◽  
Variance Risk ◽  
Negative Estimate ◽  
Swap Rates

AbstractThis paper performs specification analysis on the term structure of variance swap rates on the S&P 500 index and studies the optimal investment decision on the variance swaps and the stock index. The analysis identifies 2 stochastic variance risk factors, which govern the short and long end of the variance swap term structure variation, respectively. The highly negative estimate for the market price of variance risk makes it optimal for an investor to take short positions in a short-term variance swap contract, long positions in a long-term variance swap contract, and short positions in the stock index.

Technological Innovation, Product Life Cycle and Market Power: A Real Options Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (01) ◽  
pp. 93-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnson T. S. Cheng ◽  
I-Ming Jiang ◽  
Yu-Hong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Market Power ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Product Life ◽  
Real Options Approach

This paper employs a real options approach to analyze optimal investment decisions. When investment projects have the characteristics of irreversibility, uncertainty and the option to wait or exit, the traditional net present value (NPV) method would underestimate the value of investment, since it neglects the values of timing and operational flexibility. The distinctive feature of this paper is that the effects of product life cycle (PLC) as well as market power are incorporated into the model. In addition, and different to the approach in Liao et al. [Optimal investment decision and product life cycle: A real options approach, Sun Yat-Sen Management Review 11(3) (2003) 1–36], we introduce the concept of technological innovation into the model. It is shown that the optimal waiting time for the investment is longer than both those in the American call options model of McDonald and Siegel [The value of waiting to invest, Quarterly Journal of Economics 101(4) (1986) 707–727], which does not incorporate dividend yield, and Liao et al. [Optimal investment decision and product life cycle: A real options approach, Sun Yat-Sen Management Review 11(3) (2003) 1–36], but is shorter than that in Dixit and Pindyck's [Investment under Uncertainty (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1994)] model, which incorporates dividend yield. Finally, a comparative static is used to analyze the determinants of optimal investment decisions. Our results indicate that the investment-ratio threshold will be higher, and thus the optimal entry time for an investment will be delayed, when (1) the PLC is longer, (2) the uncertainty is greater, (3) the discounting rate is higher, (4) market power is larger, (5) jump size intensity is stronger and (6) the payoff out ratio (R&D/revenue) is larger.

scholarly journals A model of firm behaviour with bankruptey costs and imperfectly informed lenders

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Rui Mazeda Gil
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
User Cost ◽  
Bankruptcy Costs ◽  
Default Rates ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
The Impact

Based on Greenwald and Stiglitz (1988, 1990), this work explores a simple model of microeconomic behaviour that incorporates the impact of asymmetric information in capital markets on firms’ optimal investment decision rules. Starting from a model of equity-constrained firms, where expected bankruptcy costs (reflecting each firm’s quality) imply a higher user cost of capital and, thus, a lower investment by each firm, we move to a context of adverse selection in the debt market, where banks offer a ‘onesize-fits-all’ contractual interest rate. This implies that ‘poor’ firms tend to invest more vis-à-vis ‘good’ firms, since they now take into account that higher expected default rates may not be matched by comparably higher contractual interest rates, therefore weakening the impact of bankruptcy costs on firms’ investment decisions.

scholarly journals European Option Based R&D Investment Decision Making under Uncertainties

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Qing Miao ◽  
Boyang Cao ◽  
Minghui Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Joint Venture ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
European Option ◽  
Project Investment ◽  
Research Joint Venture ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
D Investment

This paper establishes the payoff models of the European option for research and development (R&D) projects with two enterprises in a research joint venture (RJV). The models are used to assess the timing and payoffs of the R&D project investment under quantified uncertainties. After the option game, the two enterprises can make optimal investment decision for the R&D project investment in the RJV.

Research on the Real Options in Investment Decision of Waterway Infrastructure Construction

2013 ◽  
Vol 734-737 ◽  
pp. 1617-1620
Author(s):  
Wei Jin
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Energy Utilization ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Government ◽  
Real Option Method

Developing the waterway infrastructure construction can improve the efficiency of energy utilization, reduce the energy consumption intensity and carbon dioxide emissions. Till the year 2020, China plan to complete 19,000 kilometers high grade channel. Construction of water infrastructure construction requires a large capital investment. However, the main financial source of funding the construction of transportation infrastructure at present in China is special financial allocation of the government. The unitary financing structure as well as the funding pressure has leaded to some serious financing problems. This paper applied the real options theory to the waterway infrastructure construction financing, analyzed the limitations of the NPV method and the advantages of real option method in investment decision of waterway infrastructure construction, and took an example to show its feasibility.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document