An Economic Ranking of the US Presidents, 1789–2009: A Data-Based Approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (04) ◽  
pp. 596-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Zachary Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Grade Point Average ◽  
The United States ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Grade Point ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
The Us ◽  
Presidential Performance

AbstractHow relatively good or bad were the economic performances of our past presidents? The answers to this question remain unclear. Most evaluations of presidential performance cloud the issue with partisan bias and subjective judgments or mix economics together with other policy areas. To address these shortcomings, this article uses new data from the Measuring Worth Project to calculate the relative economic rankings of the United States presidents who served from 1789 until 2009. It analyzes up to 220 years of data on economic growth, unemployment, inflation, government debt, balance of payments, income inequality, currency strength, interest rates, and stock market returns to estimate an economic grade point average for each president. Then, these estimates are used to test for correlations with other variables to generate hypotheses regarding the conditions for superior and inferior economic performance.

International Real Estate Review

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-409
Author(s):  
Yuen-Meng Wong ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Turn Of The Millennium ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
Market Capitalisation ◽  
Domestic Stock

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are a niche alternative investment class. Since their introduction in Asia at the turn of the millennium, the REIT market in the region has experienced phenomenal growth. In particular, the Malaysia REIT (M-REIT ) market capitalisation has seen a spectacular growth of close to 20 folds from its inception in 2005 until the end of 2013. This paper chronicles the development of the M-REIT market which is rather unique as it provides a common platform for the existence of both conventional and Islamic REITs. Empirical tests are also conducted to uncover the returns characteristics of the M-REIT market. M-REIT returns are significantly correlated with domestic stock markets but only weakly correlated with changes in interest rate, with long-term proxies having a stronger impact than short-term proxies. The results from a correlation analysis are further confirmed by regression testing which shows that M-REIT returns are most significantly driven by domestic stock market returns while only mildly by changes in interest rates and not significantly driven by returns in regional REIT markets. These findings possibly imply that M-REITs (i) subscribe more to the characteristics of equity than those of bonds, (ii) are not 'pure' yield-play instruments, (iii) are often regarded as long-term investment, and (iv) may not be fully integrated with global and regional REIT markets.

MULTIPLE GROUP THREAT AND MALLEABLE WHITE ATTITUDES TOWARDS ACADEMIC MERIT

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 233-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank L. Samson
Keyword(s):  
Grade Point Average ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public University ◽  
Minority Status ◽  
Dominant Group ◽  
University Admissions ◽  
Grade Point ◽  
Group Threat ◽  
Multiple Group ◽  
Group Position

AbstractAs the White populace in the United States moves toward numerical minority status by 2042, how might Whites respond to impending threat of losing their dominant group position? In particular, how will Whites react at selective, elite universities, where Asians are increasingly prominent and other non-Whites are maintaining or capturing a larger share of enrollments? Drawing on group position theory, I test White commitment to meritocracy as a public policy, using a survey-based experiment (599 California adult residents) to examine the importance grade point average should have in public university admissions. Whites decrease the importance that grade point average should have when Asian group threat is primed. However, White Californians increase the importance that grade point average should have when thinking about group threat from either Blacks or Blacks and Asians simultaneously. Ethnoracial outgroup threat shifts White support for meritocracy in different directions.

scholarly journals Opportunity or Crisis? Volatility and Leverage Effect in the World’s Largest Economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Amalendu Bhunia ◽  
Devrim Yaman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between asset volatility and leverage for the three largest economies (based on purchasing power parity) in the world; US, China, and India. Collectively, these economies represent Int$56,269 billion of economic power, making it important to understand the relationship among these economies that provide valuable investment opportunities for investors. We focus on a volatile period in economic history starting in 1997 when the Asian financial crisis began. Using autoregressive models, we find that Chinese stock markets have the highest volatility among the three stock markets while the US stock market has the highest average returns. The Chinese market is less efficient than the US and Indian stock markets since the impact of new information takes longer to be reflected in stock prices. Our results show that the unconditional correlation among these stock markets is significant and positive although the correlation values are low in magnitude. We also find that past market volatility is a good indicator of future market volatility in our sample. The results show that positive stock market returns result in lower volatility compared to negative stock market returns. These results demonstrate that the largest economies of the world are highly integrated and investors should consider volatility and leverage besides returns when investing in these countries.

scholarly journals Rule Britannia! British Stock Market Returns, 1825-1870

2009 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 1107-1137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme G. Acheson ◽  
Charles R. Hickson ◽  
John D. Turner ◽  
Qing Ye
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
British History ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Survivorship Bias ◽  
Real Returns ◽  
Modern Era

This article presents a new series of monthly equity returns for the British stock market for the period 1825-1870. In addition to calculating capital appreciation and dividend yields, the article also estimates the effect of survivorship bias on returns. Three notable findings emerge from this study. First, stock market returns in the 1825-1870 period are broadly similar for Britain and the United States, although the British market is less risky. Second, real returns in the 1825-1870 period are higher than in subsequent epochs of British history. Third, unlike the modern era, dividends are the most important component of returns.

Stock Market Returns and Suicide Rates: Evidence From the United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-102
Author(s):  
Sujung Choi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Emotional Factors ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Male Suicide

I investigated whether or not social mood is associated with the financial decisions of market participants in the United States, using the monthly suicide rate to represent the degree of negative social mood in a society. From monthly suicide data collected over the period from January 1981 through to December 2012, I found that suicide rates are associated with stock market returns, in aggregate. Specifically, suicide rates predicted future stock market returns, showing contemporaneous and lagged relationships with U.S. stock market returns. Furthermore, small-cap stocks were found to be more likely to be affected by suicide rates than were large-cap stocks. Female suicide rates had a stronger effect on market returns than male suicide rates did, suggesting that this suicide effect is not induced by economic reasons but, rather, is related to emotional factors (e.g., investor mood).

scholarly journals The Sensitivity of Central Bank Interest Rate on Commercial Banks’ Stock Market Returns in Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. p72
Author(s):  
Micah Odhiambo Nyamita ◽  
Martine Ogola Dima
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Panel Data Regression

Commercial banks occupy a significant position in the transmission of monetary policy through the financial market. Furthermore, commercial banks have assets and liabilities which are interest rate sensitive, and their stock returns are believed to be particularly responsive to changes in the central bank base lending rates. Therefore, this study investigated the sensitivity of central bank interest rate changes on stock returns of listed commercial banks in Kenya for nine year period, from 2006 to 2014. The study used a hybrid of cross sectional and longitudinal quantitative surveys method, applying GMM panel data regression model on the secondary data from the 11 listed commercial banks in Kenya. The study found out that there is a significant strong positive sensitivity of average annual changes in central bank interest rates (CBR) on the stock returns of the listed commercial banks in Kenya, from 2006 to 2014, measured using CAPM. Hence, listed commercial banks’ managers in Kenya should monitor, keenly, the changes in the central bank interest rates and make investor related decisions accordingly.

scholarly journals DETERMINANTS OF G7 AND CHINESE STOCK MARKET RETURNS DURING COVID-19 OUTBREAK

2020 ◽  
Vol S.I. (1) ◽  
pp. 256-266
Author(s):  
Ahmed JERIBI ◽  
◽  
Mohamed FAKHFEKH ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
The Us

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the determinants of G7, and Chinese stock market returns during the COVID-19 outbreak. We find that Bitcoin and Ethereum can generate benefits from portfolio diversification and hedging strategies for G7 financial investors in early 2020. Our result reveals that Gold is neither hedge nor haven during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the results indicated that the expected volatility of the US stock market has no effect on the Japanese and Chinese financial markets. Finally, our results suggest that the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths has an impact only on the US stock market.

scholarly journals Market expectation shifts in option-implied volatilities in the US and UK stock markets during the Brexit vote

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 366-379
Author(s):  
Artem Bielykh ◽  
Sergiy Pysarenko ◽  
Dong Meng Ren ◽  
Oleksandr Kubatko
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Market Expectations ◽  
Sharpe Ratios ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

This paper investigates the effect of the Brexit vote on the connection between UK stock market expectations and US stock market returns. To gauge UK stock market expectations, the option-implied volatilities of the FTSE 100 index are calculated in the period starting five months before and ending four months after the Brexit referendum. To keep the analysis “clean”, it stops right before the 2016 US presidential elections. It uses an OLS regression to estimate the change in the relationship between US and UK stock market expectations.The main findings show that the US and UK stock markets became somewhat less integrated four months after the Brexit referendum compared to the five months before it. The S&P 500 Index returns have a statistically significant impact on implied volatilities of the FTSE 100 only before the Brexit referendum. However, the British risk-free rate (LIBOR) became a statistically significant factor affecting FTSE 100 implied volatilities only after Brexit. This analysis may be used by decision-makers in the money management industry to act appropriately during Black Swan events. When UK citizens unexpectedly voted in favor of Brexit, the risk-free rate dropped, making it cheaper to invest, increasing the Sharpe ratios of equity portfolios. Coupled with increased uncertainty, this caused portfolio reallocations. In turn, expected volatility measured by options-implied volatility increased. AcknowledgmentThe authors would like to thank Olesia Verchenko for critique, a KSE M.A., external defense reviewer for helpful comments.

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