scholarly journals Assessing Recovery from Acidification of European Surface Waters in the Year 2010: Evaluation of Projections Made with the MAGIC Model in 1995

2014 ◽  
Vol 48 (22) ◽  
pp. 13280-13288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel C. Helliwell ◽  
Richard F. Wright ◽  
Leah A. Jackson-Blake ◽  
Robert C. Ferrier ◽  
Julian Aherne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
Magic Model ◽  
Recovery From Acidification

scholarly journals A modelling assessment of acidification and recovery of European surface waters

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 447-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Jenkins ◽  
L. Camarero ◽  
B. J. Cosby ◽  
R. C. Ferrier ◽  
M. Forsius ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Base Cation ◽  
N Deposition ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Significant Deterioration ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Magic Model ◽  
Recovery From Acidification ◽  
Recovery Protocols

Abstract. The increase in emission of sulphur oxides and nitrogen (both oxidised and reduced forms) since the mid-1800s caused a severe decline in pH and ANC in acid-sensitive surface waters across Europe. Since c.1980, these emissions have declined and trends towards recovery from acidification have been widely observed in time-series of water chemistry data. In this paper, the MAGIC model was applied to 10 regions (the SMART model to one) in Europe to address the question of future recovery under the most recently agreed emission protocols (the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol). The models were calibrated using best available data and driven using S and N deposition sequences for Europe derived from EMEP data. The wide extent and the severity of water acidification in 1980 in many regions were illustrated by model simulations which showed significant deterioration in ANC away from the pre-acidification conditions. The simulations also captured the recovery to 2000 in response to the existing emission reductions. Predictions to 2016 indicated further significant recovery towards pre-acidification chemistry in all regions except Central England (S Pennines), S Alps, S Norway and S Sweden. In these areas it is clear that further emission reductions will be required and that the recovery of surface waters will take several decades as soils slowly replenish their depleted base cation pools. Chemical recovery may not, however, ensure biological recovery and further reductions may also be required to enable these waters to achieve the "good ecological status" as required by the EU Water Framework Directive. Keywords: Europe, acid-sensitive, waters, predictions, recovery, protocols

scholarly journals Land use influences on acidification and recovery of freshwaters in Galloway, south-west Scotland

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 451-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. C. Helliwell ◽  
R. C. Ferrier ◽  
L. Johnston ◽  
J. Goodwin ◽  
R. Doughty
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Dry Period ◽  
Sulphur Deposition ◽  
South West ◽  
Recovery From Acidification ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Acid Status ◽  
Annual Discharge

Abstract. The long term response of surface waters to changes in sulphur deposition and afforestation is investigated for three upland river systems in the Galloway region of south-west Scotland. From 1984-1999, these rivers exhibited a statistically significant decline in non-marine sulphate concentrations in response to reduced acid deposition. This reduction in non-marine sulphate was, however, insufficient to induce a pH recovery over the period. A statistically significant increase in river pH was observed between 1956-1970 (0.05 yr-1) when subsidised agricultural lime payments were at a maximum. In 1976, this subsidy ceased and surface waters have progressively acidified. In addition, climatic change is found to influence long-term trends in pH. Mean annual pH was greatest during a dry period between 1969-1973 when total annual discharge was low. Thereafter, pH declined gradually in response to higher rainfall and increased total annual discharge. Overall, surface waters draining the afforested catchments of the Rivers Cree and Bladnoch are more acid than those draining the moorland catchment of the Luce. These results indicate that in afforested catchments, current reductions in sulphur emissions have not led to an observed improvement in the acid status of surface waters. Forestry, therefore, represents a confounding factor with regard to chemical recovery from acidification in this region. Keywords: acidification, afforestation, deposition, rivers, lochs, non-marine sulphate, pH

scholarly journals Predicting regional recovery from acidification; the MAGIC model applied to Scotland, England and Wales

1998 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 543-554 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. D. Evans ◽  
A. Jenkins ◽  
R. C. Helliwell ◽  
R. Ferrier
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Surface Water Chemistry ◽  
Surface Water Acidification ◽  
Magic Model ◽  
Recovery From Acidification ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Physical And Chemical

Abstract. A dynamic, process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC, has been applied to over a thousand sites across the UK. The model is calibrated to surface water samples collected during a survey for the Critical Loads programme, and utilises the best available and consistent estimates of soil physical and chemical properties, rainfall and runoff volumes, and deposition chemistry. A total of 698 sites were calibrated successfully. At these sites, surface water chemistry was reconstructed from 1850 to the present day, and forecast to 2050 based on future decreases in sulphur (S) deposition in response to the Second S Protocol. Model outputs capture distinct regional patterns of acidification and recovery. the most acidic present-day conditions are found in acid-sensitive regions of Northern England (the Pennines, Lake District and North York Moors). Although a significant proportion of sites in these areas failed to calibrate, those that did are predicted to have experienced severe historic decreases in acidic neutralising capacity (ANC) in response to high levels of acidic deposition. The model also indicates significant acidification in the moderate deposition areas of Wales and Galloway, whereas in the low deposition region of northern Scotland, acidification has been minor even in areas of acid-sensitive geology. ANC is forecast to recover at virtually all sites, with the greatest recovery predicted for areas currently subject to high deposition. The model indicates that the Second S Protocol, however, will not be sufficient to produce full recovery, with average ANC increases to 2050 counteracting just 27% of the simulated decline from 1850 to present day. Acidic conditions (ANC < 0) are predicted to persist until 2050 at a significant number of sites in Northern England, Wales and Galloway.

scholarly journals Modelling acidification, recovery and target loads for headwater catchments in Nova Scotia, Canada

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 951-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Whitfield ◽  
J. Aherne ◽  
P. J. Dillon ◽  
S. A. Watmough
Keyword(s):  
Nova Scotia ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Aquatic Organisms ◽  
Good Prognosis ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Critical Limit ◽  
Headwater Catchments ◽  
Magic Model

Abstract. The response of twenty acid-sensitive headwater catchments in Nova Scotia to acidic deposition was investigated for the period 1850–2100 using a dynamic hydrochemical model (MAGIC: Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments). To ensure robust model simulation, MAGIC was calibrated to the long-term chemical trend in annual lake observations (13–20 years). Model simulations indicated that the surface waters of all twenty catchments acidified to the 1970s but showed subsequent recovery (increases in acid neutralising capacity (ANC) and pH) as sulphate deposition decreased. However, under proposed future emissions reductions (approximately 50% of current deposition) simulated ANC and pH will not return to estimated pre-industrial levels by 2100. An ANC of 20 μmolc L−1 and pH of 5.4 were defined as acceptable chemical thresholds (or critical chemical limits) for aquatic organisms in the current study. Under the proposed emissions reductions only one catchment is predicted to remain below the critical limit for ANC by 2100; three additional catchments are predicted to remain below the critical limit for pH. Dynamic models may be used to estimate target loads, i.e., the required deposition reductions to achieve recovery within a given time. Setting target loads at approximately 30% of current depositions would allow three of the four lakes to reach the chemical criteria by 2030. In contrast to the generally good prognosis for surface waters, soils lost an average of 32% of estimated initial base saturation and recovery is estimated to be very slow, averaging 23% lower than pre-acidification levels in 2100.

Calculating Critical Loads of Sulfur Deposition for 100 Surface Waters in China Using the Magic Model

2001 ◽  
pp. 1157-1162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiming Hao ◽  
Xuemei Ye ◽  
Lei Duan ◽  
Zhongping Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
Critical Loads ◽  
Sulfur Deposition ◽  
Magic Model

scholarly journals Modelling the effects of climate on long-term patterns of dissolved organic carbon concentrations in the surface waters of a boreal catchment

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 437-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. N. Futter ◽  
M. Starr ◽  
M. Forsius ◽  
M. Holmberg
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Dissolved Organic Carbon ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Organic Soils ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Recovery From Acidification ◽  
Carbon Concentrations ◽  
Process Based Models

Abstract. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations ([DOC]) in surface waters are increasing in many regions of Europe and North America. These increases are likely driven by a combination of changing climate, recovery from acidification and change in severity of winter storms in coastal areas. INCA-C, a process-based model of climate effects on surface water [DOC], was used to explore the mechanisms by which changing climate controls seasonal to inter-annual patterns of [DOC] in the lake and outflow stream of a small Finnish catchment between 1990 and 2003. Both production in the catchment and mineralization in the lake controlled [DOC] in the lake. Concentrations in the catchment outflow were controlled by rates of DOC production in the surrounding organic soils. The INCA-C simulation results were compared to those obtained using artificial neural networks (ANN). In general, "black box" ANN models provide better fits to observed data but process-based models can identify the mechanism responsible for the observed pattern. A statistically significant increase was observed in both INCA-C modelled and measured annual average [DOC] in the lake. This suggests that some of the observed increase in surface water [DOC] is caused by climate-related processes operating in the lake and catchment. However, a full understanding of surface water [DOC] dynamics can only come from catchment-scale process-based models linking the effects of changing climate and deposition on aquatic and terrestrial environments.

Recovery from Acidification in European Surface Waters: A View to the Future

AMBIO ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 170-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brit Lisa Skjelkvåle ◽  
Chris Evans ◽  
Thorjørn Larssen ◽  
Atle Hindar ◽  
Gunnar G. Raddum
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
The Future ◽  
Recovery From Acidification

scholarly journals Recovery from acidification in European surface waters

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 283-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. D. Evans ◽  
J. M. Cullen ◽  
C. Alewell ◽  
J. Kopácek ◽  
A. Marchetto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
Base Cations ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Water Quality Data ◽  
Large Spatial Scale ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Acid Neutralising Capacity ◽  
Recovery From Acidification ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Water quality data for 56 long-term monitoring sites in eight European countries are used to assess freshwater responses to reductions in acid deposition at a large spatial scale. In a consistent analysis of trends from 1980 onwards, the majority of surface waters (38 of 56) showed significant (p ≤0.05) decreasing trends in pollution-derived sulphate. Only two sites showed a significant increase. Nitrate, on the other hand, had a much weaker and more varied pattern, with no significant trend at 35 of 56 sites, decreases at some sites in Scandinavia and Central Europe, and increases at some sites in Italy and the UK. The general reduction in surface water acid anion concentrations has led to increases in acid neutralising capacity (significant at 27 of 56 sites) but has also been offset in part by decreases in base cations, particularly calcium (significant at 26 of 56 sites), indicating that much of the improvement in runoff quality to date has been the result of decreasing ionic strength. Increases in acid neutralising capacity have been accompanied by increases in pH and decreases in aluminium, although fewer trends were significant (pH 19 of 56, aluminium 13 of 53). Increases in pH appear to have been limited in some areas by rising concentrations of organic acids. Within a general trend towards recovery, some inter-regional variation is evident, with recovery strongest in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, moderate in Scandinavia and the United Kingdom, and apparently weakest in Germany. Keywords: acidification, recovery, European trends, sulphate, nitrate, acid neutralising capacity

scholarly journals Modelling acidification, recovery and target loads for headwater catchments in Nova Scotia, Canada

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 3595-3627 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Whitfield ◽  
J. Aherne ◽  
P. J. Dillon ◽  
S. A. Watmough
Keyword(s):  
Nova Scotia ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Aquatic Organisms ◽  
Good Prognosis ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Critical Limit ◽  
Headwater Catchments ◽  
Magic Model

Abstract. The response of twenty acid-sensitive headwater catchments in Nova Scotia to acidic deposition was investigated for the period 1850–2100 using a dynamic hydrochemical model (MAGIC: Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments). To ensure robust model simulation, MAGIC was calibrated to the long-term chemical trend in annual lake observations (13–20 years). Model simulations indicated that the surface waters of all twenty catchments acidified to the 1970s but showed subsequent recovery (increases in acid neutralising capacity (ANC) and pH) as sulphate deposition decreased. However, under proposed future emissions reductions (approximately 50% of current deposition) simulated ANC and pH will not return to estimated pre-industrial levels by 2100. An ANC of 20 μmolc L−1 and pH of 5.4 were defined as acceptable chemical thresholds (or critical chemical limits) for aquatic organisms in the current study. Under the proposed emissions reductions only one catchment is predicted to remain below the critical limit for ANC by 2100; three additional catchments are predicted to remain below the critical limit for pH. Dynamic models may be used to estimate target loads, i.e., the required deposition reductions to achieve recovery within a given time. Setting target loads at approximately 30% of current depositions would allow three of the four lakes to reach the chemical criteria by 2030. In contrast to the generally good prognosis for surface waters, soils lost an average of 32% of estimated initial base saturation and recovery is estimated to be very slow, averaging 23% lower than pre-acidification levels in 2100.

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