Future Property Risk Estimation For Wildfire In Louisiana, USA

Background: Wildfire is an important but understudied natural hazard. As with other natural hazards, wildfire research is all too often conducted at too broad a spatial scale to identify local or regional patterns. This study addresses these gaps by examining the current and future wildfire property risk at the census-block level in Louisiana, a U.S. state with relatively dense population and substantial vulnerability to loss from this hazard, despite its wet climate. Here wildfire risk is defined as the product of exposure and vulnerability to the hazard, where exposure is a function of the historical and anticipated future wildfire frequency and extent, and the latter is a function of population, structure and content property value, damage probability, and percent of property damaged. Results: Historical (1992−2015) average annual statewide property loss due to wildfire was $5,556,389 (2010$), with the greatest risk to wildfire in southwestern inland, east-central, extreme northwestern, and coastal southwestern Louisiana. Based on existing climate and environmental model output, this research projects that wildfire will increase by 25 percent by 2050 in Louisiana from current values. When combined with projections of population and property value, it is determined that the geographic distribution of risk by 2050 will remain similar to that today – with highest risk in southwestern inland Louisiana and east-central Louisiana. However, the magnitude of risk will increase across the state, especially in those areas. Projected annual loss will be $11,167,496 by 2050 (2010$) due to population growth, intensification of development at the wildland-urban interface, and climate change. The wildfire-induced property damage is notable because it is projected to increase by 101 percent. These values do not include crop, forestry, or indirect losses (e.g., cost of evacuation and missed time at work), which are likely to be substantial. Conclusions: The results suggest that increased efforts are needed to contain wildfires, to reduce the future risk. Otherwise, wildfire managers, environmental planners, actuaries, community leaders, and individual property owners in Louisiana will need to anticipate and budget for additional efforts to mitigate the economic (and presumably other) impacts associated with a substantial and increasing hazard that often goes underestimated.

Innovative Pulses for Western European Temperate Regions: A Review

In Europe, there is an increasing interest in pulses both for their beneficial effects in cropping systems and for human health. However, despite these advantages, the acreage dedicated to pulses has been declining and their diversity has reduced, particularly in European temperate regions, due to several social and economic factors. This decline has stimulated a political debate in the EU on the development of plant proteins. By contrast, in Southern countries, a large panel of minor pulses is still cropped in regional patterns of production and consumption. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential for cultivation of minor pulses in European temperate regions as a complement to common pulses. Our assumption is that some of these crops could adapt to different pedoclimatic conditions, given their physiological adaptation capacity, and that these pulses might be of interest for the development of innovative local food chains in an EU policy context targeting protein autonomy. The research is based on a systematic review of 269 papers retrieved in the Scopus database (1974–2019), which allowed us to identify 41 pulses as candidate species with protein content higher than 20% that are already consumed as food. For each species, the main agronomic (e.g., temperature or water requirements) and nutritional characteristics (e.g., proteins or antinutritional contents) were identified in their growing regions. Following their agronomic characteristics, the candidate crops were confronted with variability in the annual growing conditions for spring crops in Western European temperate areas to determine the earliest potential sowing and latest harvest dates. Subsequently, the potential sum of temperatures was calculated with the Agri4cast database to establish the potential climatic suitability. For the first time, 21 minor pulses were selected to be grown in these temperate areas and appear worthy of investigation in terms of yield potential, nutritional characteristics or best management practices.

New Dimensions of Global Feminist Influence: Tracking Feminist Mobilization Worldwide, 1975–2015

Feminist mobilization, crucial for advancing women's human rights, has increased in all world regions since 1975. However, we do not know enough about the global impact of this mobilization because we lack adequate databases to explore the ways that feminist mobilization interacts with other factors that enhance and limit women's rights, such as democracy, intergovernmental processes, and transnational, regional organizing. Our ability to explore these questions is obstructed by a lack of data on the global south and measures that focus on formal organizations. This project remedies these gaps, developing an improved measure of feminist mobilization that encompasses autonomous, domestic feminist mobilization in 126 countries, 1975–2015, enabling us to track global and regional trends. Using regional comparisons and statistical analysis, we use this new measure to reveal new patterns and complexities in feminist mobilization. We discern distinct regional patterns in such organizing that defy facile predictions of global convergence and suggest a central role for UN processes advancing women's rights. Our analysis also points to the importance of transnational feminist networks and democratization as factors enabling and strengthening feminist mobilization. We conclude by suggesting some fruitful avenues for exploring relationships between feminist movements, international institutions, and democracy.

Regional Patterns of Access and Participation in Non-Formal Cultural Education in Germany

(1) Background: The equality of life chances in Germany is often assessed along the lines of a west/east and urban/rural differentiation in which the latter usually perform worse. One currently popular proposal for addressing these inequalities is to strengthen cultural and arts education. The question arises to what extent regional characteristics genuinely influence participation opportunities and to what extent individual resources still play a decisive role. (2) Methods: Using descriptive analyses and multilevel logistic regression modelling, we investigate the distribution of and participation in non-formal cultural education amongst German youth. (3) Results: We find that differences are more complex than a simple west/east or urban/rural divides. Rather, cultural activities must be considered in terms of their character in order to assess the mechanisms at play. There seem to be differences in the dependency on district funding between very peripheral and very central districts that frame the cultural infrastructure. (4) Conclusions: Regional discrepancies are not uniformly distributed across different fields of education or infrastructure. Simplifying statements that classify peripheral regions the general losers can be refuted here. Simultaneously, more comprehensive data could yield significantly more results than we are currently able to produce.

The Relationship Between Body Mass Index and Different Regional Patterns of Lymph Node Involvement in Papillary Thyroid Cancers

IntroductionLymph node (LN) metastasis is the first site of metastasis of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). LN status influences clinical management and the prognosis of patients. We explored the relationship between patient obesity and regional patterns of LN involvement in PTC.Materials and MethodsThis study retrospectively analyzed the data from 12,772 PTC patients. The rate of LN metastasis, number of LN metastasis, maximum diameter of positive LN, number of dissected LN, and LN ratios (LNR) were compared between normal-weight and obese patients. Statistical methods have been adjusted for the confounders in hypothesis testing.ResultsOverweight and obesity were independent risk factor for metastatic LNs (OR1 = 1.125, 95% CI 1.042-1.214, P1 = 0.003; OR2 = 1.554, 95% CI 1.339-1.802, P2<0.001). Obesity was an independent risk factor for the number of metastatic CLNs (OR=1.159, 95% CI 0.975-1.377, P=0.045), however not for number of metastatic lateral LNs (P=0.907). Furthermore, obesity was not an independent risk factor for number of CLNs when dissected more than five (P=0.653), still an independent risk factors for number of metastatic lateral LNs when more than six (OR=1.185, 95% CI 1.010-1.391, P=0.037). As for LNR, obesity was an independent risk factor for the central LNR when more than 0.12 (OR adjusted 1 = 1.099, 95% CI 1.011-1.194, P1 = 0.027; OR adjusted 2 = 1.177, 95% CI 1.003-1.381, P2 = 0.045), for the lateral LNR more than 0.05 (P2 = 0.283).ConclusionsObesity was associated with poor prognoses with PTC respecting LNs. Surgeons should be extreme caution when performing central neck dissection in obese patients.

Holocene climates of the Iberian Peninsula: pollen-based reconstructions of changes in the west-east gradient of temperature and moisture

The Iberian Peninsula is characterised by a steep west-east moisture gradient today, reflecting the dominance of maritime influences along the Atlantic coast and more Mediterranean-type climate further east. Holocene pollen records from the Peninsula suggest that this gradient was less steep during the early to mid-Holocene, possibly reflecting the impact of orbital changes on circulation and thus regional patterns in climate. Here we use 7121 pollen samples from 117 sites covering part or all of the last 12,000 years to reconstruct changes in seasonal temperature and in moisture across the Iberian Peninsula quantitatively. We show that there is an increasing trend in winter temperature at a regional scale, consistent with known changes in winter insolation. However, summer temperatures do not show the decreasing trend through the Holocene that would be expected if they were a direct response to insolation forcing. We show that summer temperature is strongly correlated with plant-available moisture (α), as measured by the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to equilibrium evapotranspiration, which declines through the Holocene. The reconstructions also confirm that the west-east gradient in moisture was considerably less steep than today during the early to mid-Holocene, indicating that atmospheric circulation changes (possibly driven by orbital changes) have been important determinants of the Holocene climate of the region.

Turnover of Lecanoroid Mycobionts and Their Trebouxia Photobionts Along an Elevation Gradient in Bolivia Highlights the Role of Environment in Structuring the Lichen Symbiosis

Shifts in climate along elevation gradients structure mycobiont–photobiont associations in lichens. We obtained mycobiont (lecanoroid Lecanoraceae) and photobiont (Trebouxia alga) DNA sequences from 89 lichen thalli collected in Bolivia from a ca. 4,700 m elevation gradient encompassing diverse natural communities and environmental conditions. The molecular dataset included six mycobiont loci (ITS, nrLSU, mtSSU, RPB1, RPB2, and MCM7) and two photobiont loci (ITS, rbcL); we designed new primers to amplify Lecanoraceae RPB1 and RPB2 with a nested PCR approach. Mycobionts belonged to Lecanora s.lat., Bryonora, Myriolecis, Protoparmeliopsis, the “Lecanora” polytropa group, and the “L.” saligna group. All of these clades except for Lecanora s.lat. occurred only at high elevation. No single species of Lecanoraceae was present along the entire elevation gradient, and individual clades were restricted to a subset of the gradient. Most Lecanoraceae samples represent species which have not previously been sequenced. Trebouxia clade C, which has not previously been recorded in association with species of Lecanoraceae, predominates at low- to mid-elevation sites. Photobionts from Trebouxia clade I occur at the upper extent of mid-elevation forest and at some open, high-elevation sites, while Trebouxia clades A and S dominate open habitats at high elevation. We did not find Trebouxia clade D. Several putative new species were found in Trebouxia clades A, C, and I. These included one putative species in clade A associated with Myriolecis species growing on limestone at high elevation and a novel lineage sister to the rest of clade C associated with Lecanora on bark in low-elevation grassland. Three different kinds of photobiont switching were observed, with certain mycobiont species associating with Trebouxia from different major clades, species within a major clade, or haplotypes within a species. Lecanoraceae mycobionts and Trebouxia photobionts exhibit species turnover along the elevation gradient, but with each partner having a different elevation threshold at which the community shifts completely. A phylogenetically defined sampling of a single diverse family of lichen-forming fungi may be sufficient to document regional patterns of Trebouxia diversity and distribution.