The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy

2004 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilde C. Bjørnland
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Shock Absorber ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

scholarly journals A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Fanelli ◽  
Ludwig Straub
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Pecuniary Externality ◽  
Optimal Intervention ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Intervention Policy

Abstract We study a real small open economy with two key ingredients (1) partial segmentation of home and foreign bond markets and (2) a pecuniary externality that makes the real exchange rate excessively volatile in response to capital flows. Partial segmentation implies that, by intervening in the bond markets, the central bank can affect the exchange rate and the spread between home- and foreign-bond yields. Such interventions allow the central bank to address the pecuniary externality, but they are also costly, as foreigners make carry trade profits. We analytically characterize the optimal intervention policy that solves this trade-off: (1) the optimal policy leans against the wind, stabilizing the exchange rate; (2) it involves smooth spreads but allows exchange rates to jump; (3) it partly relies on “forward guidance,” with non-zero interventions even after the shock has subsided; (4) it requires credibility, in that central banks do not intervene without commitment. Finally, we shed light on the global consequences of widespread interventions, using a multi-country extension of our model. We find that, left to themselves, countries over-accumulate reserves, reducing welfare and leading to inefficiently low world interest rates.

scholarly journals PERANAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM MENJAGA STABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SEBAGAI RESPON TERHADAP FLUKTUASI PEREKONOMIAN DUNIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
M. Maulana Al Arif ◽  
Achmad Tohari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation.Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source.The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, SVARJEL Classification: E52, E32, C32, F41

scholarly journals Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoyuki Yoshino ◽  
Sahoko Kaji ◽  
Tamon Asonuma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Transition Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Exchange Rate

We propose a new dynamic transition analysis on the basis of a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our proposed analysis differs from existing static and conventional dynamic analyses in that shifts from a fixed exchange rate regime to a basket peg or a floating regime are explicitly explored. We apply quantitative analysis, using data from the People's Republic of China and Thailand, and find that both economies would be better off shifting from a dollar peg to a basket peg or a floating regime over the long run. Furthermore, the longer the transition period, the greater the benefits of shifting to a basket peg regime from a dollar peg regime owing to limited volatility in interest rates. Regarding sudden shifts to a desired regime, the welfare gains are larger under a shift to a basket peg if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly.

scholarly journals Were the Czech Hotels Able to Confront Current Appreciation of the Czech Currency Before the End of the Exchange Rate Commitment?

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 1925-1933 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Heryán
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper has focused on the issue of foreign exchange markets in relation to tourism and hotel industry in the small open economy such as the Czech Republic. After more than three years when the Czech National Bank (CNB) intervened on the foreign exchange market, everybody look forward to development of exchange rates after the end of the exchange rate commitment. The aim of this study is to show how Czech hotels were been able to confront current appreciation of the Czech koruna before the CNB had ended the exchange rate commitment. According to this aim it was necessary to investigate relations between exchange rates and turnover of Czech hotels as the first. Therefore, it has been obtained time series of the hotels’ profit and loss statements from Bureau van Dijk’s Amadeus international statistical database as well as exchange rates from the CNB online database. Other data is from the Eurostat and the World Bank online statistical database. As the main estimation method it is used the GMM approach with panel data for period from 2007 till 2014. After the estimation of those statistical significant relations it is essential to describe the ways, how were the hotels been able to face the exchange rate risk before the end of the commitment. Furthermore, it has been differentiated between natural hedging for smaller hotels and the usage of the financial derivatives for these bigger. Three types of hedging are described: (i) natural hedging, (ii) usage of a currency forward, and (iii) taking a loan in foreign currency.

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