scholarly journals Optimal parameter and uncertainty estimation of a land surface model: A case study using data from Cabauw, Netherlands

2003 ◽  
Vol 108 (D18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Uncertainty Estimation ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Using Data

scholarly journals A non-linear and stochastic response surface method for Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in soil moisture simulation from a land surface model

2004 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 427-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Hossain ◽  
E. N. Anagnostou ◽  
K.-H. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Uncertainty Estimation ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Computational Burden ◽  
Nearest Neighborhood ◽  
Estimation Of Uncertainty

Abstract. This study presents a simple and efficient scheme for Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in soil moisture simulation by a Land Surface Model (LSM). The scheme is assessed within a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation framework based on the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. A primary limitation of using the GLUE method is the prohibitive computational burden imposed by uniform random sampling of the model's parameter distributions. Sampling is improved in the proposed scheme by stochastic modeling of the parameters' response surface that recognizes the non-linear deterministic behavior between soil moisture and land surface parameters. Uncertainty in soil moisture simulation (model output) is approximated through a Hermite polynomial chaos expansion of normal random variables that represent the model's parameter (model input) uncertainty. The unknown coefficients of the polynomial are calculated using limited number of model simulation runs. The calibrated polynomial is then used as a fast-running proxy to the slower-running LSM to predict the degree of representativeness of a randomly sampled model parameter set. An evaluation of the scheme's efficiency in sampling is made through comparison with the fully random MC sampling (the norm for GLUE) and the nearest-neighborhood sampling technique. The scheme was able to reduce computational burden of random MC sampling for GLUE in the ranges of 10%-70%. The scheme was also found to be about 10% more efficient than the nearest-neighborhood sampling method in predicting a sampled parameter set's degree of representativeness. The GLUE based on the proposed sampling scheme did not alter the essential features of the uncertainty structure in soil moisture simulation. The scheme can potentially make GLUE uncertainty estimation for any LSM more efficient as it does not impose any additional structural or distributional assumptions.

scholarly journals Land-surface parameter optimisation using data assimilation techniques: the adJULES system V1.0

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 2833-2852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina M. Raoult ◽  
Tim E. Jupp ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Catherine M. Luke
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Gross Primary Production ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Land Surface Parameter ◽  
Estimation System ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Land-surface models (LSMs) are crucial components of the Earth system models (ESMs) that are used to make coupled climate–carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used in the climate and weather forecast models of the UK Met Office. JULES is also extensively used offline as a land-surface impacts tool, forced with climatologies into the future. In this study, JULES is automatically differentiated with respect to JULES parameters using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or adjoint, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed to search for locally optimum parameters by calibrating against observations. This paper describes adJULES in a data assimilation framework and demonstrates its ability to improve the model–data fit using eddy-covariance measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. adJULES also has the ability to calibrate over multiple sites simultaneously. This feature is used to define new optimised parameter values for the five plant functional types (PFTs) in JULES. The optimised PFT-specific parameters improve the performance of JULES at over 85 % of the sites used in the study, at both the calibration and evaluation stages. The new improved parameters for JULES are presented along with the associated uncertainties for each parameter.

scholarly journals Multidataset Study of Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation of a Land Surface Model with Bayesian Stochastic Inversion and Multicriteria Method

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (10) ◽  
pp. 1477-1497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youlong Xia ◽  
Mrinal K. Sen ◽  
Charles S. Jackson ◽  
Paul L. Stoffa
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Optimal Parameters ◽  
Stochastic Inversion ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study evaluates the ability of Bayesian stochastic inversion (BSI) and multicriteria (MC) methods to search for the optimal parameter sets of the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM) using prescribed forcing to simulate observed sensible and latent heat fluxes from seven measurement sites representative of six biomes including temperate coniferous forests, tropical forests, temperate and tropical grasslands, temperate crops, and semiarid grasslands. Calibration results with the BSI and MC show that estimated optimal values are very similar for the important parameters that are specific to the CHASM model. The model simulations based on estimated optimal parameter sets perform much better than the default parameter sets. Cross-validations for two tropical forest sites show that the calibrated parameters for one site can be transferred to another site within the same biome. The uncertainties of optimal parameters are obtained through BSI, which estimates a multidimensional posterior probability density function (PPD). Marginal PPD analyses show that nonoptimal choices of stomatal resistance would contribute most to model simulation errors at all sites, followed by ground and vegetation roughness length at six of seven sites. The impact of initial root-zone soil moisture and nonmosaic approach on estimation of optimal parameters and their uncertainties is discussed.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Noah land-surface model using data from a fair-weather IHOP_2002 day with heterogeneous surface fluxes

2007 ◽  
Vol preprint (2008) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Margaret A. LeMone ◽  
Mukul Tewari ◽  
Fei Chen ◽  
Joseph G. Alfieri ◽  
Dev Niyogi
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Heterogeneous Surface ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Fair Weather ◽  
Noah Land Surface Model ◽  
Using Data

scholarly journals Analysis of WRF Model Performance over Subtropical Region of Delhi, India

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manju Mohan ◽  
Shweta Bhati
Keyword(s):  
Surface Layer ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Subtropical Region ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Current Availability

Model performance and sensitivity to model physics options are studied with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.1.1) over Delhi region in India for surface and upper air meteorological parameters in summer and winter seasons. A case study with the model has been performed with different configurations, and the best physics options suited for this region have been, determined. Comparison between estimated and observed data was carried out through standard statistical measures. Generally, the combination of Pleim-Xiu land surface model, Pleim surface layer scheme, and Asymmetric Convective Model has been found to produce better estimates of temperature and relative humidity for Delhi region. Wind speed and direction estimations were observed best for MM5 similarity surface layer along with Yonsei University boundary layer scheme. Nested domains with higher resolutions were not helpful in improving the simulation results as per the current availability of the data. Overall, the present case study shows that the model has performed reasonably well over the subtropical region of Delhi.

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