Optimal parameter and uncertainty estimation of a land surface model: Sensitivity to parameter ranges and model complexities

Abstract. This study presents a simple and efficient scheme for Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in soil moisture simulation by a Land Surface Model (LSM). The scheme is assessed within a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation framework based on the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. A primary limitation of using the GLUE method is the prohibitive computational burden imposed by uniform random sampling of the model's parameter distributions. Sampling is improved in the proposed scheme by stochastic modeling of the parameters' response surface that recognizes the non-linear deterministic behavior between soil moisture and land surface parameters. Uncertainty in soil moisture simulation (model output) is approximated through a Hermite polynomial chaos expansion of normal random variables that represent the model's parameter (model input) uncertainty. The unknown coefficients of the polynomial are calculated using limited number of model simulation runs. The calibrated polynomial is then used as a fast-running proxy to the slower-running LSM to predict the degree of representativeness of a randomly sampled model parameter set. An evaluation of the scheme's efficiency in sampling is made through comparison with the fully random MC sampling (the norm for GLUE) and the nearest-neighborhood sampling technique. The scheme was able to reduce computational burden of random MC sampling for GLUE in the ranges of 10%-70%. The scheme was also found to be about 10% more efficient than the nearest-neighborhood sampling method in predicting a sampled parameter set's degree of representativeness. The GLUE based on the proposed sampling scheme did not alter the essential features of the uncertainty structure in soil moisture simulation. The scheme can potentially make GLUE uncertainty estimation for any LSM more efficient as it does not impose any additional structural or distributional assumptions.

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Multidataset Study of Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation of a Land Surface Model with Bayesian Stochastic Inversion and Multicriteria Method

Journal of Applied Meteorology ◽

10.1175/jam2145.1 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 43 (10) ◽

pp. 1477-1497 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Youlong Xia ◽

Mrinal K. Sen ◽

Charles S. Jackson ◽

Paul L. Stoffa

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Root Zone ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Optimal Parameter ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Heat Fluxes ◽

Surface Model ◽

Optimal Parameters ◽

Stochastic Inversion ◽

The Impact

Abstract This study evaluates the ability of Bayesian stochastic inversion (BSI) and multicriteria (MC) methods to search for the optimal parameter sets of the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM) using prescribed forcing to simulate observed sensible and latent heat fluxes from seven measurement sites representative of six biomes including temperate coniferous forests, tropical forests, temperate and tropical grasslands, temperate crops, and semiarid grasslands. Calibration results with the BSI and MC show that estimated optimal values are very similar for the important parameters that are specific to the CHASM model. The model simulations based on estimated optimal parameter sets perform much better than the default parameter sets. Cross-validations for two tropical forest sites show that the calibrated parameters for one site can be transferred to another site within the same biome. The uncertainties of optimal parameters are obtained through BSI, which estimates a multidimensional posterior probability density function (PPD). Marginal PPD analyses show that nonoptimal choices of stomatal resistance would contribute most to model simulation errors at all sites, followed by ground and vegetation roughness length at six of seven sites. The impact of initial root-zone soil moisture and nonmosaic approach on estimation of optimal parameters and their uncertainties is discussed.

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Simulation of Surface Ozone Pollution in the Central Gulf Coast Region Using WRF/Chem Model: Sensitivity to PBL and Land Surface Physics

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2010/319138 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 2010 ◽

pp. 1-24 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Anjaneyulu Yerramilli ◽

Venkata Srinivas Challa ◽

Venkata Bhaskar Rao Dodla ◽

Hari Prasad Dasari ◽

John H. Young ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Gulf Coast ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Mixed Layer Depth ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Surface Model ◽

Model Sensitivity ◽

Emission Data ◽

Study Region ◽

Diurnal Range

The fully coupled WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry) model is used to simulate air quality in the Mississippi Gulf coastal region at a high resolution (4 km) for a moderately severe summer ozone episode between 18 CST 7 and 18 CST 10 June 2006. The model sensitivity is studied for meteorological and gaseous criteria pollutants (O3, NO2) using three Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and four land surface model (LSM) schemes and comparison of model results with monitoring station observations. Results indicated that a few combinations of PBL and LSMs could reasonably produce realistic meteorological fields and that the combination of Yonsei University (YSU) PBL and NOAH LSM provides best predictions for winds, temperature, humidity and mixed layer depth in the study region for the period of study. The diurnal range in ozone concentration is better estimated by the YSU PBL in association with either 5-layer or NOAH land surface model. The model seems to underestimate the ozone concentrations in the study domain because of underestimation of temperatures and overestimation of winds. The underestimation of NO2by model suggests the necessity of examining the emission data in respect of its accurate representation at model resolution. Quantitative analysis for most monitoring stations indicates that the combination of YSU PBL with NOAH LSM provides the best results for various chemical species with minimum BIAS, RMSE, and high correlation values.

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Using scientific workflows to calibrate an Australian land surface model (AWRA-L)

Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R.S. and Boland J. (eds) MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation ◽

10.36334/modsim.2013.j9.vleeshouwer ◽

2013 ◽

Keyword(s):

Land Surface ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Scientific Workflows ◽

Surface Model

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L'apport de la télédétection spatiale à la modélisation des surfaces continentales

La Météorologie ◽

10.37053/lameteorologie-2020-0016 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 052

Author(s):

Jean-Christophe Calvet ◽

Jean-Louis Champeaux

Keyword(s):

Satellite Data ◽

Land Surface ◽

Land Surface Model ◽

Static Model ◽

Geographic Information ◽

Surface Model ◽

Model Parameters

Cet article présente les différentes étapes des développements réalisés au CNRM des années 1990 à nos jours pour spatialiser à diverses échelles les simulations du modèle Isba des surfaces terrestres. Une attention particulière est portée sur l'intégration, dans le modèle, de données satellitaires permettant de caractériser la végétation. Deux façons complémentaires d'introduire de l'information géographique dans Isba sont présentées : cartographie de paramètres statiques et intégration au fil de l'eau dans le modèle de variables observables depuis l'espace. This paper presents successive steps in developments made at CNRM from the 1990s to the present-day in order to spatialize the simulations of the Isba land surface model at various scales. The focus is on the integration in the model of satellite data informative about vegetation. Two complementary ways to integrate geographic information in Isba are presented: mapping of static model parameters and sequential assimilation of variables observable from space.

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