Complexities in barrier island response to sea level rise: Insights from numerical model experiments, North Carolina Outer Banks

Operational monsoon moisture surveillance and severe weather prediction is essential for timely water resource management and disaster risk reduction. For these purposes, this study suggests a moisture indicator using the COSMIC-2/FORMOSAT-7 radio occultation (RO) observations and evaluates numerical model experiments with RO data assimilation. The RO data quality is validated by a comparison between sampled RO profiles and nearby radiosonde profiles around Taiwan prior to the experiments. The suggested moisture indicator accurately monitors daily moisture variations in the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal throughout the 2020 monsoon rainy season. For the numerical model experiments, the statistics of 152 moisture and rainfall forecasts for the 2020 Meiyu season in Taiwan show a neutral to slightly positive impact brought by RO data assimilation. A forecast sample with the most significant improvement reveals that both thermodynamic and dynamic fields are appropriately adjusted by model integration posterior to data assimilation. The statistics of 17 track forecasts for typhoon Hagupit (2020) also show the positive effect of RO data assimilation. A forecast sample reveals that the member with RO data assimilation simulates better typhoon structure and intensity than the member without, and the effect can be larger and faster via multi-cycle RO data assimilation.

Download Full-text

Modeling vegetation community responses to sea-level rise on Barrier Island systems: A case study on the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex, Florida, USA

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0182605 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 12 (8) ◽

pp. e0182605 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Tammy E. Foster ◽

Eric D. Stolen ◽

Carlton R. Hall ◽

Ronald Schaub ◽

Brean W. Duncan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Barrier Island ◽

Community Responses ◽

Vegetation Community

Download Full-text

RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE EFFECTS AT THE MARAMBAIA BARRIER ISLAND AND GUARATIBA MANGROVE: SEPETIBA BAY (SE BRAZIL)

Journal of Sedimentary Environments ◽

10.12957/jse.2019.44397 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 249-262

Author(s):

Carolina Santana da Costa Santos ◽

Fábio Ferreira Dias ◽

Barbara Franz ◽

Paulo Roberto Alves dos Santos ◽

Thalita Da Fonseca Rodrigues ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Rio De Janeiro ◽

Central Area ◽

Barrier Island ◽

Aerial Images ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Sepetiba Bay ◽

Se Brazil ◽

Relative Sea Level Rise

Human activities change coastal ecosystems, but they are also altered by natural causes, such as the relative sea level rise. This work analyzes the influence of changes of the relative sea level at Guaratiba mangrove and Marambaia barrier island, in Sepetiba Bay, Rio de Janeiro State (SE, Brazil), based on photo interpretation. The objective of this study is to analyze the morphodynamics of Marambaia coastal sand barrier, estimating the rate of the shoreline change by mapping the vegetation line position, variations of dune extension and overwash processes. The Marambaia barrier island and Guaratiba mangrove are highly vulnerable to sea level rise. The mangrove is suffering pressure from the relative sea level rising and urbanization. The mangrove migration towards the continent is evident through the analyses of aerial images from 1976 to 2005. If the current erosion process continues in the Marambaia barrier island, a disruption in the central area of the sand bank should occur, which will create a new communication between Sepetiba Bay and the ocean. This break will change the present internal circulation of the bay and modify the ecosystems. Also considering the anthropic pressure, if the Marambaia barrier island breaks, the mangrove area will be reduced or disappear. The sea level rise and the sedimentation rate lowering will result in the migration and marine transgression in Marambaia barrier island and Guaratiba mangrove. EFEITOS DO AUMENTO RELATIVO DO NÍVEL DO MAR NA ILHA BARREIRA DE MARAMBAIA E DO MANGUEZAL DE GUARATIBA: BAÍA DE SEPETIBA (SE BRASIL) ResumoAs atividades humanas alteram os ecossistemas costeiros, mas estes também são alterados por causas naturais, como por exemplo, o aumento relativo do nível do mar. Este trabalho analisa a influência das mudanças relativas do nível do mar no manguezal de Guaratiba e na ilha barreira de Marambaia, na Baía de Sepetiba, localizada no Estado do Rio de Janeiro (SE, Brasil), com base na fotointerpretação. O objetivo deste estudo é analisar a morfodinâmica da barreira costeira de areia de Marambaia, estimando a taxa de variação da linha de costa, mapeando a posição da linha de vegetação, variações da extensão dunar e os processos de overwash. A ilha barreira de Marambaia e o manguezal de Guaratiba são altamente vulneráveis à elevação do nível do mar. O manguezal está sofrendo pressão do aumento relativo do nível do mar e da urbanização. A migração do manguezal para o continente é evidente através da análise de imagens aéreas de 1976 a 2005. Se continuar o processo atual de erosão na ilha barreira de Marambaia, deverá ocorrer uma ruptura na área central do banco de areia, o que dará origem a uma nova comunicação entre a Baía de Sepetiba e a oceano. Essa quebra vai mudar a atual circulação interna da baía e modificar os ecossistemas. Se a ilha barreira de Marambaia se romper, a área de manguezal irá ser reduzida ou desaparecerá. Este efeito é tanto mais provável se for considerada também a pressão antrópica. A elevação do nível do mar e a redução da taxa de sedimentação resultarão na migração e transgressão marinha na barreira de Marambaia e no mangue de Guaratiba. Palavras-chave: Ilha da Barreira. Manguezal. Elevação do nível relativo do mar. Erosão costeira. Galgamento oceânico.

Download Full-text