Interplay between Asian Monsoon and Tides Affects the Plume Dispersal of the New Hu-Wei River off the Coast of Midwest Taiwan

In the coupled estuary–shelf system, plumes originating from the New Hu-Wei and Choshui rivers, consisting of many terrestrial materials, could contaminate the water of the Mailiao industrial harbor. To determine the contribution of the two rivers to pollution, the interaction between river-forced, tide-generating, and monsoon-driven water motions in and around the Mailiao industrial zone harbor was examined by performing a series of numerical model experiments. We used a three-dimensional general circulation model to examine the interplay between Asian monsoon-driven, river-forced, and tide-induced water motions, one of which could primarily affect the plume. The model-derived results for different river discharges revealed that almost all of the ammonium entering the harbor had a slope-positive trend, with oscillations in response to flood–ebb tidal cycles. The ammonium increased with time and flux, except for the 10 m3/s flux. Although the river discharge flux exceeded 200 m3/s, the ammonium entering the harbor was the same as that of the 200 m3/s flux; the ammonium concentration did not increase significantly with time after the flux exceeded 200 m3/s. In addition, irrespective of flood or ebb tidal currents being suppressed by strong Asian monsoons, this mechanism avoided contaminating the water quality of the harbor while northeasterly winds prevailed. By contrast, the southwesterly monsoon drove the geostrophic current northward along the coast; concurrently, the coastal sea level increased to form the surface isobar slope up toward the coast, producing a secondary flow to accelerate geostrophic alongshore currents. The northward geostrophic currents compressed the plumes shoreward, forming a relatively narrow-band plume; the coupling model demonstrated that the southwesterly monsoon-driven current pushed plumes favorably along the west pier into the harbor.

Indian Ocean Dipole leads to Atlantic Niño

Atlantic Niño is the Atlantic equivalent of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and it has prominent impacts on regional and global climate. Existing studies suggest that the Atlantic Niño may arise from local atmosphere-ocean interaction and is sometimes triggered by the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), with overall weak ENSO contribution. By analyzing observational datasets and performing numerical model experiments, here we show that the Atlantic Niño can be induced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We find that the enhanced rainfall in the western tropical Indian Ocean during positive IOD weakens the easterly trade winds over the tropical Atlantic, causing warm anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic basin and therefore triggering the Atlantic Niño. Our finding suggests that the cross-basin impact from the tropical Indian Ocean plays a more important role in affecting interannual climate variability than previously thought.

Effect of Mid-Latitude Jet Stream on the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Affecting Korea: Observational Analysis and Implication from the Numerical Model Experiments of Typhoon Chaba (2016)

The effect of the jet stream on the changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) affecting Korea is discussed. We classified the TCs into three categories based on the decreasing rate of TC intensity in 24 h after TC passed 30° N. The TCs with a large intensity decrease had a more vigorous intensity when the TCs approached the mid-latitudes. The analysis of observational fields showed that the strong jet stream over Korea and Japan may intensify TCs by the secondary circulations of jet entrance but induces a large decrease in TC intensity in the mid-latitudes by the strong vertical wind shear. We also performed the numerical simulation for the effect of the jet stream on the intensity changes of Typhoon Chaba (2016). As a result, the stronger jet stream induced more low-level moisture convergence at the south of the jet stream entrance, enhancing the intensity when the TC approached Korea. Furthermore, it induced a rapid reduction in intensity when TC approached in the strong jet stream area. The results suggest that the upper-level jet stream is one of the critical factors modulating the intensity of TC affecting Korea in the vicinity of the mid-latitudes.

Evaluation of Operational Monsoon Moisture Surveillance and Severe Weather Prediction Utilizing COSMIC-2/FORMOSAT-7 Radio Occultation Observations

Operational monsoon moisture surveillance and severe weather prediction is essential for timely water resource management and disaster risk reduction. For these purposes, this study suggests a moisture indicator using the COSMIC-2/FORMOSAT-7 radio occultation (RO) observations and evaluates numerical model experiments with RO data assimilation. The RO data quality is validated by a comparison between sampled RO profiles and nearby radiosonde profiles around Taiwan prior to the experiments. The suggested moisture indicator accurately monitors daily moisture variations in the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal throughout the 2020 monsoon rainy season. For the numerical model experiments, the statistics of 152 moisture and rainfall forecasts for the 2020 Meiyu season in Taiwan show a neutral to slightly positive impact brought by RO data assimilation. A forecast sample with the most significant improvement reveals that both thermodynamic and dynamic fields are appropriately adjusted by model integration posterior to data assimilation. The statistics of 17 track forecasts for typhoon Hagupit (2020) also show the positive effect of RO data assimilation. A forecast sample reveals that the member with RO data assimilation simulates better typhoon structure and intensity than the member without, and the effect can be larger and faster via multi-cycle RO data assimilation.

The Critical Role of Cloud–Infrared Radiation Feedback in Tropical Cyclone Development

<p>The deep convective clouds of developing tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly effective at trapping the infrared (or longwave) radiation welling up from the surface. This “cloud greenhouse effect” locally warms the lower–mid-troposphere relative to the TC’s surroundings – an effect that manifests in all stages of the TC lifecycle. While idealized studies suggest the importance of this feedback for TC formation, this issue has remained unexplored for TCs in nature, where non-zero background flow, wind shear, and synoptic-scale variability are known to greatly constrain TC development.</p><p>To address this gap, we examine the potential role of this cloud–infrared (or longwave) radiation feedback in the context of two archetypal storms: Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and Hurricane Maria (2017). We conduct a set of numerical model experiments for both storms with a convection-resolving model (WRF-ARW) from the very early stages of TC development. We examine sensitivity experiments wherein this cloud–radiation feedback is removed at various lead-times prior to TC genesis and the onset of rapid intensification (RI). In both storms, removing this cloud–radiation feedback at a lead-time of ~1 day or less leads to delayed and/or weaker intensification than in the control case. When this feedback is removed with a lead-time of two days or longer, however, the storms altogether fail to development and intensify. This local cloud greenhouse effect strengthens the thermally direct transverse circulation of the incipient storm, in turn both promoting saturation within its core and accelerating the spin-up of its surface tangential circulation via angular momentum convergence. These findings indicate that the cloud greenhouse effect plays a critical role in accelerating and promoting TC development in nature. Progress in the prediction of TC formation and intensification has been very limited in recent decades. Cloud–radiation feedback represents a large source of uncertainty in models, which hence manifests as uncertainty in the prediction of TC development. Our findings highlight the pressing need to better constrain this feedback in models. Doing so holds promise for advancing our ability to forecast TCs.</p>

Ocean Conditions and the Intensification of three Major Atlantic Hurricanes in 2017

Major Atlantic hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria of 2017 reached their peak intensity in September while traveling over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, where both atmospheric and ocean conditions were favorable for intensification. In-situ and satellite ocean observations revealed that conditions in these areas exhibited: (i) sea surface temperatures above 28°C; (ii) upper-ocean heat content above 60 kJ cm-2; and (iii) the presence of low-salinity barrier layers associated with a larger-than-usual extension of the Amazon and Orinoco riverine plumes. Proof-of-concept coupled ocean-hurricane numerical model experiments demonstrated that the accurate representation of such ocean conditions led to an improvement in the simulated intensity of Hurricane Maria for the 3 days preceding landfall in Puerto Rico, when compared to an experiment without the assimilation of ocean observations. Without the assimilation of ocean observations, upper-ocean thermal conditions were generally colder than observations, resulting in reduced air-sea enthalpy fluxes - enthalpy fluxes are more realistically simulated when the upper-ocean temperature and salinity structure is better represented in the model. Our results further showed that different components of the ocean observing system provide valuable information in support of improved TC simulations, and that assimilation of underwater glider observations alone provided the largest improvement of the total improvement over the 24-hour time frame before landfall. Our results therefore indicated that ocean conditions were relevant for more realistically simulating Hurricane Maria’s intensity. However, further research based on a comprehensive set of hurricane cases is required to confirm robust improvements to forecast systems.

Stratospheric influence on idealised baroclinic life cycles

<p>The importance of understanding the dynamical coupling of troposphere and stratosphere to make accurate weather and climate predictions is well-known. Over the past years and decades various signatures of such a<br>coupling have been discovered. A very robust result, for example, seems to be an equatorward shift of the tropospheric eddy driven jet following sudden stratospheric warming events, where the westerly winds of the stratospheric polar vortex weaken or even reverse. However, many aspects of this fundamental coupling are still not fully understood and research on how the state of the stratosphere can influence the tropospheric circulation and what dynamical processes are involved is still ongoing.</p><p><br>An important such process arises due to the interaction of a sharp, localised maximum in potential vorticity gradient near the tropopause with baroclinic eddies in the troposphere. Here, we analyse the sensitivity of baroclinic wave development and evolution to changes of various basic state characteristics, by performing a series of idealised baroclinic eddy life cycle experiments. Special attention is paid to sensitivities associated with the dynamical state of the stratosphere. We find that the final (steady) state of the life cycle simulations corresponds to an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet in cases where the initial conditions do not include a stratospheric polar vortex (such as following sudden warming events) compared to those that do. These results further support the idea that the stratospheric state can strongly influence tropospheric dynamics and, in particular, highlight the robustness of the jet shift response following sudden warmings, that can be seen in a range of observations and numerical model experiments.</p>

Arctic sea ice export as a driver of deglacial climate

A widespread theory in paleoclimatology suggests that changes in freshwater discharge to the Nordic (Greenland, Norwegian, and Icelandic) Seas from ice sheets and proglacial lakes over North America played a role in triggering episodes of abrupt climate change during deglaciation (21–8 ka) by slowing the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC). Yet, proving this link has been problematic, as climate models are unable to produce centennial-to-millennial–length reductions in overturning from short-lived outburst floods, while periods of iceberg discharge during Heinrich Event 1 (ca. 16 ka) may have occurred after the climate had already begun to cool. Here, results from a series of numerical model experiments are presented to show that prior to deglaciation, sea ice could have become tens of meters thick over large parts of the Arctic Basin, forming an enormous reservoir of freshwater independent from terrestrial sources. Our model then shows that deglacial sea-level rise, changes in atmospheric circulation, and terrestrial outburst floods caused this ice to be exported through Fram Strait, where its subsequent melt freshened the Nordic Seas enough to weaken the AMOC. Given that both the volume of ice stored in the Arctic Basin and the magnitude of the simulated export events exceed estimates of the volumes and fluxes of meltwater periodically discharged from proglacial Lake Agassiz, our results show that non-terrestrial freshwater sources played an important role in causing past abrupt climate change.

Assessment of Efficiency of Array of Wave Energy Converters using Mike21-Bw Model, Near Bhagvati Bandar

The world we live in is becoming more and more dependent on electrical energy and shortage of energy is bound to happen in the nearest future. India is the third largest in terms of power generation. Global warming and climate changes are the biggest challenge faced by mankind. Use of energy resources which are renewable and green that is producing low carbon emission is the need of the day. India has invested heavily on wind energy and solar energy. Ocean wave energy generation is renewable process with minimal carbon emission as well as less land requirement. India has a long coastline and has a tremendous scope for generation of wave energy along its coastline. Wave Energy Converter (WEC) is the device used in the wave energy extraction. For making the wave energy conversion feasible, the efficiency of a WEC is required to be assessed. For the design of WEC and assessment of its efficiency numerical models are very much useful giving the flexibility of assessing a number of alternatives at a relatively low cost. An attempt is made in this paper to estimate efficiency of an array of WECs using the Boussinesq Wave Model, namely the mathematical model MIKE21-BW. A site at Bhagvati Bandar, which is identified as hotspot for wave energy generation is considered for the installation of WECs. Numerical model experiments were carried out to find optimal configuration of an array of WECs and the findings are presented in this paper.

SEASONAL VARIATION OF TRANSPORTATION OF ASARI CLAM, RUDITAPES PHILIPPINARUM, LARVAE IN HIROSHIMA BAY

Hiroshima Bay is located in western part of the Seto Inland Sea, and there is high productivity of Asari clam. However, the landings amount of the clam was rapidly decreased and production areas came to be limited in the northern part (bay head). Here, the clam has the planktonic larval stage. Then, it is important to reveal the transportation process of larvae to clarify the habitat connectivity of the clam. Therefore, in this study, we try to clarify the transportation process of the clam larvae in the Hiroshima Bay by numerical model experiments. As a result of model experiments, in June (rainy and heating season), the larvae are transported to southward in western area of Hiroshima Bay. In November (dry and cooling season), distribution of larvae is limited in the northern area of Hiroshima Bay. These results are corresponding to the field observation results. In the Seto Inland Sea, it is said that there is spawning time of the clam twice a year (spring and autumn). However, in a recent Hiroshima Bay, the density of the larva in spring is very low than that in autumn. These facts suggest that the production of the clam is limited in the northern area of Hiroshima Bay because the density of the larva is low in spring when the larvae can extend to the south.