scholarly journals Record warming in the South Pacific and western Antarctica associated with the strong central-Pacific El Niño in 2009-10

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (19) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Tong Lee ◽  
William R. Hobbs ◽  
Joshua K. Willis ◽  
Daria Halkides ◽  
Ichiro Fukumori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño

scholarly journals Research Spotlight: Record warming in South Pacific associated with central Pacific El Niño

Eos ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 91 (46) ◽  
pp. 440-440
Author(s):  
Mohi Kumar ◽  
Ernie Tretkoff
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño

scholarly journals Characterization of the Variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone Using Satellite and Reanalysis Wind Products

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1717-1732 ◽  
Author(s):  
Autumn Kidwell ◽  
Tong Lee ◽  
Young-Heon Jo ◽  
Xiao-Hai Yan
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Multiple Time Scales ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
The South ◽  
Central Pacific

Abstract The variability of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is evaluated using ocean surface wind products derived from the atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim for the period of 1981–2014 and QuickSCAT for the period of 1999–2009. From these products, indices were developed to represent the SPCZ strength, area, and centroid location. Excellent agreement is found between the indices derived from the two wind products during the QuikSCAT period in terms of the spatiotemporal structures of the SPCZ. The longer ERA-Interim product is used to study the variations of SPCZ properties on intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales. The SPCZ strength, area, and centroid latitude have a dominant seasonal cycle. In contrast, the SPCZ centroid longitude is dominated by intraseasonal variability due to MJO influence. The SPCZ indices are all correlated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation indices. Interannual and intraseasonal variations of SPCZ strength during strong El Niño are approximately twice as large as the respective seasonal variations. SPCZ strength depends more on the intensity of El Niño rather than the central-Pacific versus eastern-Pacific type. The change from positive to negative Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) around 1999 results in a westward shift of the SPCZ centroid longitude, a much smaller interannual swing in centroid latitude, and a decrease in SPCZ area. This study improves the understanding of the variations of the SPCZ on multiple time scales and reveals the variations of SPCZ strength not reported previously. The diagnostics analyses can be used to evaluate climate models to gauge their fidelity.

scholarly journals Two-year consecutive concurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Central Pacific El Niño preconditioned the 2019/2020 Australian “black summer” bushfires

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guojian Wang ◽  
Wenju Cai
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

Abstract The 2019/20 Australian black summer bushfires were particularly severe in many respects, including its early commencement, large spatial coverage, and large number of burning days, preceded by record dry and hot anomalies. Determining whether greenhouse warming has played a role is an important issue. Here, we examine known modes of tropical climate variability that contribute to droughts in Australia to provide a gauge. We find that a two-year consecutive concurrence of the 2018 and 2019 positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the 2018 and 2019 Central Pacific El Niño, with the former affecting Southeast Australia, and the latter influencing eastern and northeastern Australia, may explain many characteristics of the fires. Such consecutive events occurred only once in the observations since 1911. Using two generations of state-of-the-art climate models under historical and a business-as-usual emission scenario, we show that the frequency of such consecutive concurrences increases slightly, but rainfall anomalies during such events are stronger in the future climate, and there are drying trends across Australia. The impact of the stronger rainfall anomalies during such events under drying trends is likely to be exacerbated by greenhouse warming-induced rise in temperatures, making such events in the future even more extreme.

scholarly journals ENSO flavors in a tree-ring δ<sup>18</sup>O record of <i>Tectona grandis</i> from Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1325-1333 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Schollaen ◽  
C. Karamperidou ◽  
P. Krusic ◽  
E. Cook ◽  
G. Helle
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. Indonesia's climate is dominated by the equatorial monsoon system, and has been linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events that often result in extensive droughts and floods over the Indonesian archipelago. In this study we investigate ENSO-related signals in a tree-ring δ18O record (1900–2007) of Javanese teak. Our results reveal a clear influence of Warm Pool (central Pacific) El Niño events on Javanese tree-ring δ18O, and no clear signal of Cold Tongue (eastern Pacific) El Niño events. These results are consistent with the distinct impacts of the two ENSO flavors on Javanese precipitation, and illustrate the importance of considering ENSO flavors when interpreting palaeoclimate proxy records in the tropics, as well as the potential of palaeoclimate proxy records from appropriately selected tropical regions for reconstructing past variability of. ENSO flavors.

scholarly journals Extreme swings of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and the different types of El Niño events

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (13) ◽  
pp. 4695-4703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Borlace ◽  
Agus Santoso ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Matt Collins
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
The South ◽  
Different Types ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

scholarly journals Predictability of Persistent Thailand Rainfall during the Mature Monsoon Season in 2011 Using Statistical Downscaling of CGCM Seasonal Prediction

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (4) ◽  
pp. 1166-1178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Shinjiro Kanae ◽  
Masahide Kimoto ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Masayoshi Ishii
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Local Rainfall

Abstract Predictability of above-normal rainfall over Thailand during the rainy season of 2011 was investigated with a one-tier seasonal prediction system based on an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model (CGCM) combined with a statistical downscaling method. The statistical relationship was derived using singular value decomposition analysis (SVDA) between observed regional rainfall and the hindcast of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the seasonal prediction system, which has an ability to forecast oceanic variability for lead times up to several months. The downscaled product of 2011 local rainfall was obtained by combining rainfall patterns derived from significant modes of SVDA. This method has the advantage in terms of flexibility that phenomenon-based statistical relationships, such as teleconnections associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), or the newly recognized central Pacific El Niño, are considered separately in each SVDA mode. The downscaled prediction initialized from 1 August 2011 reproduced the anomalously intense precipitation pattern over Indochina including northern Thailand during the latter half of the rainy season, even though the direct hindcast from the CGCM failed to predict the local rainfall distribution and intensity. Further analysis revealed that this method is applicable to the other recent events such as heavy rainfall during the rainy seasons of 2002 and 2008 in Indochina.

The Contribution of Boreal Spring South Pacific Atmospheric Variability to El Niño Occurrence

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8301-8313
Author(s):  
Qingye Min ◽  
Renhe Zhang
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

AbstractDespite the fact that great efforts have been made to improve the prediction of El Niño events, it remains challenging because of limited understanding of El Niño and its precursors. This research focuses on the influence of South Pacific atmospheric variability on the development of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific. It is found that as early as in the boreal spring of El Niño years, the sea level pressure anomaly (SLPA) shows a configuration characterized by two significant negative anomaly centers in the north and a positive anomaly center in the south between the subtropics and high latitudes in South Pacific. Such an anomalous SLPA pattern becomes stronger in the following late boreal spring and summer associated with the strengthening of westerly anomalies in the tropical Pacific, weakening the southeasterly trade winds and promoting the warming of tropical eastern Pacific, which is conducive to the development of El Niño events. It is demonstrated that the SLPA pattern in boreal spring revealed in this study is closely associated with boreal summer South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) and South Pacific meridional mode (SPMM). As a precursor in boreal spring, the prediction skill of the South Pacific SLPA in boreal spring for the SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific is better than that of the SPMM. This study is helpful to deepen our understanding of the contribution of South Pacific extratropical atmospheric variability to El Niño occurrence.

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