scholarly journals Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Rignot ◽  
I. Velicogna ◽  
M. R. van den Broeke ◽  
A. Monaghan ◽  
J. T. M. Lenaerts
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheets

Long-term future projections for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets with the model SICOPOLIS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Christopher Chambers ◽  
Reinhard Calov ◽  
Takashi Obase ◽  
Fuyuki Saito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Mass Losses ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Sensitive Experiment ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheets

<p>The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is a major international climate modelling initiative. As part of it, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets until the year 2100. This was achieved by defining a set of future climate scenarios by evaluating results of CMIP5 and CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs, including MIROC) over and surrounding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. These scenarios were used as forcings for a variety of ice-sheet models operated by different working groups worldwide (Goelzer et al. 2020, doi: 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020; Seroussi et al. 2020, doi: 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020).</p><p>Here, we use the model SICOPOLIS to carry out extended versions of the ISMIP6 future climate experiments for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets until the year 3000. For the atmospheric forcing (anomalies of surface mass balance and temperature) beyond 2100, we sample randomly the ten-year interval 2091-2100, while the oceanic forcing beyond 2100 is kept fixed at 2100 conditions. We conduct experiments for the pessimistic, "business as usual" pathway RCP8.5 (CMIP5) / SSP5-8.5 (CMIP6), and for the optimistic RCP2.6 (CMIP5) / SSP1-2.6 (CMIP6) pathway that represents substantial emissions reductions. For the unforced, constant-climate control runs, both ice sheets are stable until the year 3000. For RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, they suffer massive mass losses: For Greenland, ~1.7 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the 12-experiment mean, and ~3.5 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. For Antarctica, ~3.3 m SLE for the 14-experiment mean, and ~5.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. For RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the mass losses are limited to a two-experiment mean of ~0.26 m SLE for Greenland, and a three-experiment mean of ~0.25 m SLE for Antarctica. Climate-change mitigation during the next decades will therefore be an efficient means for limiting the contribution of the ice sheets to sea-level rise in the long term.</p>

Automated mapping of supraglacial hydrology using Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diarmuid Corr ◽  
Amber Leeson ◽  
Malcolm McMillan ◽  
Ce Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Sentinel 2 ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheets

<p>Mass loss from Greenlandic and Antarctic ice sheets are predicted to be the dominant contribution to global sea level rise in coming years. Supraglacial lakes and channels are thought to play a significant role in ice sheet mass balance by causing the speed-up of grounded ice and weakening, floating ice shelves to the point of collapse. Identifying the location, distribution and life cycle of these hydrological features on both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is therefore important in understanding their present and future contribution to global sea level rise. Supraglacial hydrological features can be easily identified by eye in optical satellite imagery. However, given that there are many thousands of these features, and they appear in many hundreds of satellite images, automated approaches to mapping these features in such images are urgently needed.</p><p> </p><p>Current automated approaches in mapping supraglacial hydrology tend to have high false positive and false negative rates, which are often followed by manual corrections and quality control processes. Given the scale of the data however, methods such as those that require manual post-processing are not feasible for repeat monitoring of surface hydrology at continental scale. Here, we present initial results from our work conducted as part of the 4D Greenland and 4D Antarctica projects, which increases the accuracy of supraglacial lake and channel delineation using Sentinel-2 and Landsat-7/8 imagery, while reducing the need for manual intervention. We use Machine Learning approaches including a Random Forest algorithm trained to recognise water, ice, cloud, rock, shadow, blue-ice and crevassed regions. Both labelled optical imagery and auxiliary data (e.g. digital elevation models) are used in our approach. Our methods are trained and validated using data covering a range of glaciological and climatological conditions, including images of both ice sheets and those acquired at different points during the melt-season. The workflow, developed under Google Cloud Platform, which hosts the entire archive of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 data, allows for large-scale application over Greenlandic and Antarctic ice sheets, and is intended for repeated use throughout future melt-seasons.</p>

Relative control of bedrock roughness versus topography on global glacier bed friction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Gagliardini ◽  
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
Florent Gimbert
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Inverse Method ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Grid Resolution ◽  
Classical Approach ◽  
Bed Topography ◽  
Bed Friction

<p>Friction at the base of ice-sheets has been shown to be one of the largest uncertainty of model projections for the contribution of ice-sheet to future sea level rise. On hard beds, most of the apparent friction is the result of ice flowing over the bumps that have a size smaller than described by the grid resolution of ice-sheet models. To account for this friction, the classical approach is to replace this under resolved roughness by an ad-hoc friction law. In an imaginary world of unlimited computing resource and highly resolved bedrock DEM, one should solve for all bed roughnesses assuming pure sliding at the bedrock-ice interface. If such solutions are not affordable at the scale of an ice-sheet or even at the scale of a glacier, the effect of small bumps can be inferred using synthetical periodic geometry. In this presentation,<span>  </span>beds are constructed using the superposition of up to five bed geometries made of sinusoidal bumps of decreasing wavelength and amplitudes. The contribution to the total friction of all five beds is evaluated by inverse methods using the most resolved solution as observation. It is shown that small features of few meters can contribute up to almost half of the total friction, depending on the wavelengths and amplitudes distribution. This work also confirms that the basal friction inferred using inverse method<span>  </span>is very sensitive to how the bed topography is described by the model grid, and therefore depends on the size of the model grid itself.<span> </span></p>

scholarly journals Brief communication: On calculating the sea-level contribution in marine ice-sheet models

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 833-840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Violaine Coulon ◽  
Frank Pattyn ◽  
Bas de Boer ◽  
Roderik van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ocean Water ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
The Common

Abstract. Estimating the contribution of marine ice sheets to sea-level rise is complicated by ice grounded below sea level that is replaced by ocean water when melted. The common approach is to only consider the ice volume above floatation, defined as the volume of ice to be removed from an ice column to become afloat. With isostatic adjustment of the bedrock and external sea-level forcing that is not a result of mass changes of the ice sheet under consideration, this approach breaks down, because ice volume above floatation can be modified without actual changes in the sea-level contribution. We discuss a consistent and generalised approach for estimating the sea-level contribution from marine ice sheets.

scholarly journals Spatial variations in the rate of sea level rise caused by the present-day melting of glaciers and ice sheets

1997 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 1503-1506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clinton P. Conrad ◽  
Bradford H. Hager
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Spatial Variations

ISMIP6 Future Projections for Antarctica performed using the AWI PISM ice sheet model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kleiner ◽  
Jeremie Schmiedel ◽  
Angelika Humbert
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Non Local ◽  
The Impact

<p>Ice sheets constitute the largest and most uncertain potential source of future sea-level rise. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) brings together a consortium of international ice sheet and climate models to explore the contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to future sea-level rise.</p> <p>We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM, pism-docs.org) to carry out spinup and projection simulations for the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our treatment of the ice-ocean boundary condition previously based on 3D ocean temperatures (initMIP-Antarctica) has been adopted to use the ISMIP6 parameterisation and 3D ocean forcing fields (temperature and salinity) according to the ISMIP6 protocol.</p> <p>In this study, we analyse the impact of the choices made during the model initialisation procedure on the initial state. We present the AWI PISM results of the ISMIP6 projection simulations and investigate the ice sheet response for individual basins. In the analysis, we distinguish between the local and non-local ice shelf basal melt parameterisation.</p>

Trends and projections in ice sheet mass balance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Shepherd ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Global Sea Level

<p>In recent decades, the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets have been major contributors to global sea-level rise and are expected to be so in the future. Although increases in glacier flow and surface melting have been driven by oceanic and atmospheric warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite records of changes in polar ice sheet volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of their mass balance. <strong>Since the early 1990’s, ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have caused global sea-levels to rise by 18.4 millimetres, on average, and there has been a sixfold increase in the volume of ice loss over time. Of this total, 41 % (7.6 millimetres) originates from Antarctica and 59 % (10.8 millimetres) is from Greenland. In this presentation, we compare our reconciled estimates of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass change to IPCC projection of sea level rise to assess the model skill in predicting changes in ice dynamics and surface mass balance.  </strong>Cumulative ice losses from both ice sheets have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario, which forecast an additional 170 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.</p>

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1934) ◽  
pp. 161-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Nicholls ◽  
Natasha Marinova ◽  
Jason A. Lowe ◽  
Sally Brown ◽  
Pier Vellinga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

Ice sheet mass balance and sea level

2009 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 413-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Allison ◽  
R.B. Alley ◽  
H.A. Fricker ◽  
R.H. Thomas ◽  
R.C. Warner
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Measurement Technology ◽  
Satellite Gravity ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ice Sheet Mass Balance

AbstractDetermining the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS) has long been a major challenge for polar science. But until recent advances in measurement technology, the uncertainty in ice sheet mass balance estimates was greater than any net contribution to sea level change. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4) was able, for the first time, to conclude that, taken together, the GIS and AIS have probably been contributing to sea level rise over the period 1993–2003 at an average rate estimated at 0.4 mm yr-1. Since the cut-off date for work included in AR4, a number of further studies of the mass balance of GIS and AIS have been made using satellite altimetry, satellite gravity measurements and estimates of mass influx and discharge using a variety of techniques. Overall, these studies reinforce the conclusion that the ice sheets are contributing to present sea level rise, and suggest that the rate of loss from GIS has recently increased. The largest unknown in the projections of sea level rise over the next century is the potential for rapid dynamic collapse of ice sheets.

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