Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1‐CISM2.1

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) will be losing mass at an accelerating pace throughout the 21st century, with a direct link between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the magnitude of Greenland mass loss. Currently, approximately 60 % of the mass loss contribution comes from surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, while 40 % are due to ice calving. Where most of the surface melt occurs (in the ablation zone), most of the energy for the surface melt is provided by absorbed shortwave fluxes, which could be reduced by solar geoengineering measures. However, so far very little is known about the potential impacts of an artificial reduction of the incoming solar radiation on the GrIS surface energy budget and the subsequent change in meltwater production. By forcing the regional climate model MAR with the latest CMIP6 future scenarios ssp245, ssp585 and associated G6solar experiment from the Earth System Model CNRM-ESM2-1, we evaluate the local changes due to the reduction of the solar constant on the projected GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) decrease. Overall, our results show that even in case of low mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenario (ssp585), the Greenland surface mass loss can be brought in line with the medium mitigation emissions scenario (ssp245) by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by ~40 W/m2 or ~1.5 % (using the G6solar experiment). In addition to reduce Global Warming in line with ssp245, G6solar also decreases the efficiency of surface meltwater production over the Greenland ice sheet by damping the well-known positive melt-albedo feedback which mitigates the projected Greenland ice sheet surface melt increase by 6 %. However, only more constraining geoengineering experiments than G6solar allows to maintain positive SMB till the end of this century without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions.

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Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (6) ◽

pp. 3013-3019

Author(s):

Xavier Fettweis ◽

Stefan Hofer ◽

Roland Séférian ◽

Charles Amory ◽

Alison Delhasse ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Solar Constant ◽

Gas Emissions ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Solar Geoengineering ◽

Surface Melt

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) will be losing mass at an accelerating pace throughout the 21st century, with a direct link between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the magnitude of Greenland mass loss. Currently, approximately 60 % of the mass loss contribution comes from surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, while 40 % are due to ice calving. In the ablation zone covered by bare ice in summer, most of the surface melt energy is provided by absorbed shortwave fluxes, which could be reduced by solar geoengineering measures. However, so far very little is known about the potential impacts of an artificial reduction in the incoming solar radiation on the GrIS surface energy budget and the subsequent change in meltwater production. By forcing the regional climate model MAR with the latest CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) future emission scenarios (SSP245, SSP585) and associated G6solar experiment from the CNRM-ESM2-1 Earth system model, we estimate the local impact of a reduced solar constant on the projected GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) decrease. Overall, our results show that even in the case of a low-mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP585), the Greenland surface mass loss can be brought in line with the medium-mitigation emissions scenario (SSP245) by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by ∼ 40 W/m2 or ∼ 1.5 % (using the G6solar experiment). In addition to reducing global warming in line with SSP245, G6solar also decreases the efficiency of surface meltwater production over the Greenland ice sheet by damping the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback. With respect to a MAR simulation where the solar constant remains unchanged, decreasing the solar constant according to G6solar in the MAR radiative scheme mitigates the projected Greenland ice sheet surface melt increase by 6 %. However, only more constraining geoengineering experiments than G6solar would allow us to maintain a positive SMB until the end of this century without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions.

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Could climate engineering save the Greenland Ice Sheet?

Climanosco Research Articles - https://www.climanosco.org/collection/climate-change-and-its-impacts/ ◽

10.37207/cra.1.10 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Patrick J. Applegate ◽

K. Keller

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Sea Level ◽

Computer Model ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Upper Atmosphere ◽

Climate Engineering ◽

Air Temperatures

Engineering the climate through albedo modification (AM) could slow, but probably would not stop, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Albedo modification is a technology that could reduce surface air temperatures through putting reflective particles into the upper atmosphere. AM has never been tested, but it might reduce surface air temperatures faster and more cheaply than reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Some scientists claim that AM would also prevent or reverse sea-level rise. But, are these claims true? The Greenland Ice Sheet will melt faster at higher temperatures, adding to sea-level rise. However, it's not clear that reducing temperatures through AM will stop or reverse sea-level rise due to Greenland Ice Sheet melting. We used a computer model of the Greenland Ice Sheet to examine its contributions to future sea level rise, with and without AM. Our results show that AM would probably reduce the rate of sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet. However, sea-level rise would likely continue even with AM, and the ice sheet would not regrow quickly. Albedo modification might buy time to prepare for sea-level rise, but problems could arise if policymakers assume that AM will stop sea-level rise completely.

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Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Science Advances ◽

10.1126/sciadv.1700584 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 3 (6) ◽

pp. e1700584 ◽

Cited By ~ 64

Author(s):

Stefan Hofer ◽

Andrew J. Tedstone ◽

Xavier Fettweis ◽

Jonathan L. Bamber

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet

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Acceleration of the Greenland ice sheet mass loss as observed by GRACE: Confidence and sensitivity

Earth and Planetary Science Letters ◽

10.1016/j.epsl.2012.12.010 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 364 ◽

pp. 24-29 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

P.L. Svendsen ◽

O.B. Andersen ◽

A.A. Nielsen

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet

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Monitoring southwest Greenland’s ice sheet melt with ambient seismic noise

Science Advances ◽

10.1126/sciadv.1501538 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 2 (5) ◽

pp. e1501538 ◽

Cited By ~ 39

Author(s):

Aurélien Mordret ◽

T. Dylan Mikesell ◽

Christopher Harig ◽

Bradley P. Lipovsky ◽

Germán A. Prieto

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level ◽

Seismic Noise ◽

Seismic Velocity ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Ice Sheet Mass Balance ◽

Velocity Changes

The Greenland ice sheet presently accounts for ~70% of global ice sheet mass loss. Because this mass loss is associated with sea-level rise at a rate of 0.7 mm/year, the development of improved monitoring techniques to observe ongoing changes in ice sheet mass balance is of paramount concern. Spaceborne mass balance techniques are commonly used; however, they are inadequate for many purposes because of their low spatial and/or temporal resolution. We demonstrate that small variations in seismic wave speed in Earth’s crust, as measured with the correlation of seismic noise, may be used to infer seasonal ice sheet mass balance. Seasonal loading and unloading of glacial mass induces strain in the crust, and these strains then result in seismic velocity changes due to poroelastic processes. Our method provides a new and independent way of monitoring (in near real time) ice sheet mass balance, yielding new constraints on ice sheet evolution and its contribution to global sea-level changes. An increased number of seismic stations in the vicinity of ice sheets will enhance our ability to create detailed space-time records of ice mass variations.

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On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 1933-1946 ◽

Cited By ~ 212

Author(s):

Michiel R. van den Broeke ◽

Ellyn M. Enderlin ◽

Ian M. Howat ◽

Peter Kuipers Munneke ◽

Brice P. Y. Noël ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level ◽

Pore Space ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

Recent Contribution ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Level Change

Abstract. We assess the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change. We use the mass budget method, which quantifies ice sheet mass balance (MB) as the difference between surface mass balance (SMB) and solid ice discharge across the grounding line (D). A comparison with independent gravity change observations from GRACE shows good agreement for the overlapping period 2002–2015, giving confidence in the partitioning of recent GrIS mass changes. The estimated 1995 value of D and the 1958–1995 average value of SMB are similar at 411 and 418 Gt yr−1, respectively, suggesting that ice flow in the mid-1990s was well adjusted to the average annual mass input, reminiscent of an ice sheet in approximate balance. Starting in the early to mid-1990s, SMB decreased while D increased, leading to quasi-persistent negative MB. About 60 % of the associated mass loss since 1991 is caused by changes in SMB and the remainder by D. The decrease in SMB is fully driven by an increase in surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, which is slightly compensated by a small ( <  3 %) increase in snowfall. The excess runoff originates from low-lying ( <  2000 m a.s.l.) parts of the ice sheet; higher up, increased refreezing prevents runoff of meltwater from occurring, at the expense of increased firn temperatures and depleted pore space. With a 1991–2015 average annual mass loss of ∼  0.47 ± 0.23 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) and a peak contribution of 1.2 mm SLE in 2012, the GrIS has recently become a major source of global mean sea level rise.

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Constraining GRACE-derived cryosphere-attributed signal to irregularly shaped ice-covered areas

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-7-1901-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 7 (6) ◽

pp. 1901-1914 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

W. Colgan ◽

S. Luthcke ◽

W. Abdalati ◽

M. Citterio

Keyword(s):

Monte Carlo ◽

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Spherical Harmonic ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Caps ◽

Ice Coverage ◽

Ice Sheet Mass Balance ◽

Harmonic Representation

Abstract. We use a Monte Carlo approach to invert a spherical harmonic representation of cryosphere-attributed mass change in order to infer the most likely underlying mass changes within irregularly shaped ice-covered areas at nominal 26 km resolution. By inverting a spherical harmonic representation through the incorporation of additional fractional ice coverage information, this approach seeks to eliminate signal leakage between non-ice-covered and ice-covered areas. The spherical harmonic representation suggests a Greenland mass loss of 251 ± 25 Gt a−1 over the December 2003 to December 2010 period. The inversion suggests 218 ± 20 Gt a−1 was due to the ice sheet proper, and 34 ± 5 Gt a−1 (or ~14%) was due to Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GrPGICs). This mass loss from GrPGICs exceeds that inferred from all ice masses on both Ellesmere and Devon islands combined. This partition therefore highlights that GRACE-derived "Greenland" mass loss cannot be taken as synonymous with "Greenland ice sheet" mass loss when making comparisons with estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from techniques that sample only the ice sheet proper.

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Heterogeneous CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> content of glacial meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet and implications for subglacial carbon processes

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-15-1627-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (3) ◽

pp. 1627-1644

Author(s):

Andrea J. Pain ◽

Jonathan B. Martin ◽

Ellen E. Martin ◽

Åsa K. Rennermalm ◽

Shaily Rahman

Keyword(s):

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Mineral Weathering ◽

Atmospheric Co2 ◽

The Arctic ◽

Co2 Concentrations ◽

Geochemical Models ◽

Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased freshwater delivery to the Arctic Ocean and amplified the need to understand the impact of Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater on Arctic greenhouse gas budgets. We evaluate subglacial discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations and δ13C values and use geochemical models to evaluate subglacial CH4 and CO2 sources and sinks. We compare discharge from southwest (a sub-catchment of the Isunnguata Glacier, sub-Isunnguata, and the Russell Glacier) and southern Greenland (Kiattut Sermiat). Meltwater CH4 concentrations vary by orders of magnitude between sites and are saturated with respect to atmospheric concentrations at Kiattut Sermiat. In contrast, meltwaters from southwest sites are supersaturated, even though oxidation reduces CH4 concentrations by up to 50 % during periods of low discharge. CO2 concentrations range from supersaturated at sub-Isunnguata to undersaturated at Kiattut Sermiat. CO2 is consumed by mineral weathering throughout the melt season at all sites; however, differences in the magnitude of subglacial CO2 sources result in meltwaters that are either sources or sinks of atmospheric CO2. At the sub-Isunnguata site, the predominant source of CO2 is organic matter (OM) remineralization. However, multiple or heterogeneous subglacial CO2 sources maintain atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Russell but not at Kiattut Sermiat, where CO2 is undersaturated. These results highlight a previously unrecognized degree of heterogeneity in greenhouse gas dynamics under the Greenland Ice Sheet. Future work should constrain the extent and controls of heterogeneity to improve our understanding of the impact of Greenland Ice Sheet melt on Arctic greenhouse gas budgets, as well as the role of continental ice sheets in greenhouse gas variations over glacial–interglacial timescales.

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