Prison population projections, 2006-2013: England and Wales

Author(s):  
Nisha de Silva ◽  
Paul Cowell ◽  
Terence Chow ◽  
Paul Worthington
1969 ◽  
Vol 1 (S1) ◽  
pp. 119-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean Thompson

SummaryThe age structure of the immigrant female population as shown by the 1961 Census was heavily biased towards the young adult age groups, where fertility rates are highest. The birth rate for such a population could be expected considerably to exceed the average for this country as a whole, due to differences in age structure alone. The Census also showed marked differences betwen the fertility rates of different groups of immigrants but suggested that for the most important groups —from the Irish Republic, the Indian sub-continent and the Caribbean—they then amounted to a completed family size of roughly ½ child above the England and Wales average. There were also marked differences in 1961 between the socio-economic structure of immigrant groups; such evidence as there is points to socio-economic factors as playing an important part in explaining the fertility of immigrants, and its possible change over time.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (27) ◽  
pp. 1-116
Author(s):  
Katrina Forsyth ◽  
Leanne Heathcote ◽  
Jane Senior ◽  
Baber Malik ◽  
Rachel Meacock ◽  
...  

Background People aged ≥ 50 years constitute the fastest-growing group in the prison population of England and Wales. This population has complex health and social care needs. There is currently no national strategy to guide the development of the many-faceted services required for this vulnerable population; therefore, prisons are responding to the issue with a range of local initiatives that are untested and often susceptible to failure if they are not fully embedded in and securely funded as part of commissioned services. Objectives The objectives were to establish the prevalence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in prisoners in England and Wales and their health and social care needs; validate the six-item cognitive impairment test for routine use in prisons to aid early and consistent identification of older prisoners with possible dementia or mild cognitive impairment; identify gaps in current service provision; understand the first-hand experiences of prisoners living with dementia and mild cognitive impairment; develop a care pathway for prisoners with dementia and mild cognitive impairment; develop dementia and mild cognitive impairment training packages for staff and prisoners; and produce health economic costings for the care pathway and training packages. Design This was a mixed-methods study. Setting The study setting was prisons in England and Wales. Participants Prisoners aged ≥ 50 years and multiagency staff working in prison discipline and health and social care services took part. Results Quantitative research estimated that the prevalence rate of suspected dementia and mild cognitive impairment in the prison population of England and Wales is 8%. This equates to 1090 individuals. Only two people (3%) in our sample had a relevant diagnosis in their health-care notes, suggesting current under-recognition of these conditions. The prevalence rate in prisons was approximately two times higher among individuals aged 60–69 years and four times higher among those aged ≥ 70 years than among those in the same age groups living in the community. The Montreal Cognitive Assessment screening test was found to be more effective than the six-item cognitive impairment test assessment in the older prisoner population. Qualitative research determined that staff and prisoners lacked training in knowledge and awareness of dementia and mild cognitive impairment, and this leads to problematic behaviour being viewed as a disciplinary issue rather than a health issue. Local initiatives to improve the lives of prisoners with dementia and mild cognitive impairment are often disadvantaged by not being part of commissioned services, making them difficult to sustain. Multidisciplinary working is hampered by agencies continuing to work in silos, with inadequate communication across professional boundaries. A step-by-step care pathway for prisoners with dementia and mild cognitive impairment was developed, and two tiers of training materials were produced for staff and prisoners. Limitations Our prevalence rate was based on the results of a standardised assessment tool, rather than on clinical diagnosis by a mental health professional, and therefore it may represent an overestimation. Furthermore, we were unable to distinguish subcategories of dementia. We were also unable to distinguish between a likely diagnosis of dementia and other conditions presenting with mild cognitive impairment, including learning disability, severe depression and hearing impairment. Questionnaires regarding current service provision were collected over an extended period of time, so they do not reflect a ‘snapshot’ of service provision at a particular point. Conclusions We hypothesise that implementing the step-by-step care pathway and the training resources developed in this study will improve the care of older prisoners with dementia and mild cognitive impairment. Future work The care pathway and training materials should be evaluated in situ. Alternatives to prison for those with dementia or mild cognitive impairment should be developed and evaluated. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 27. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.


2021 ◽  
pp. 174889582110374
Author(s):  
Matthew Cracknell

As part of the Transforming Rehabilitation reforms, 70 ‘local’ prisons in England and Wales were re-designated as resettlement prisons, in order to provide additional through-the-gate support to individuals serving short sentences. Drawing on staff and prisoner interviews in one case study resettlement prison, this article considers what challenges were involved with implementing a resettlement culture in a local prison. Findings first outline factors inhibiting the resettlement status of the prison; these include a tension between attempts to implement a more expansive resettlement remit into the prison, while also fulfilling more long-standing core institutional duties; the size and churn of the prison population; wide-scale apathy caused by change fatigue; and government austerity policies which caused significant difficulties in the day-to-day staffing of the prison. This article then turns to practitioner responses to the re-designation, finding that practitioners interpreted resettlement in two limited ways: top-down managerial attempts to instil a wider resettlement culture into the prison, and resistance from prison officers who felt unwilling or unable to expand their roles beyond custodial and security concerns. This article concludes by outlining how this set of inter-related barriers frustrated staff and prisoners alike, eroding a sense of hope and purpose and impeding true cultural change.


This paper gives details of a model for forecasting aids, developed for actuarial purposes, but used also for population projections. The model is only appropriate for homosexual transmission, but it is age-specific, and it allows variation in the transition intensities by age, duration in certain states and calendar year. The differential equations controlling transitions between states are defined, the method of numerical solution is outlined, and the parameters used in five different Bases of projection are given in detail. Numerical results for the population of England and Wales are shown.


1960 ◽  
Vol 16 (02) ◽  
pp. 85-111
Author(s):  
J. R. Ford ◽  
C. M. Stewart

In 1944 the Royal Commission on Population was set up in order to determine the probable consequences of population trends then current. In order to do this they prepared a range of sixteen separate population projections for Great Britain based on various combinations of assumptions as to mortality, fertility (and marriage), and migration. The method used, in which each component of population change i.e. birth, death and migration receives separate treatment, is generally known as the component method. This distinguishes it from cruder methods based on the assumption that the total numbers in a population follow some mathematical formula.Since the Royal Commission reported, this method has continued to be used in preparing what may perhaps be described as the ‘official’ projections of the population of England and Wales.


1992 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 369-391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tony Fabelo

This article examines the responses of the Texas political system to judicially mandated reforms since 1980 and the shifting political coalitions that have shaped correctional policies in the state. It discusses how information generated through policy research has been critical in Texas to channel narrow constituencies into more pragmatic and compromising policies leading to systemic reforms. Policy research, impact statements and prison population projections have made the need for systemic reform “obvious” and reforms possible. Policy research is essential to generate information to explicitly establish accountability in the political arena for the allocation of criminal justice resources.


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