Allowing for shocks in portfolio mortality models

The COVID-19 pandemic creates a challenge for actuaries analysing experience data that include mortality shocks. Without sufficient local flexibility in the time dimension, any analysis based on the most recent data will be biased by the temporarily higher mortality. Also, depending on where the shocks sit in the exposure period, any attempt to identify mortality trends will be distorted. We present a methodology for analysing portfolio mortality data that offer local flexibility in the time dimension. The approach permits the identification of seasonal variation, mortality shocks and occurred-but-not reported deaths (OBNR). The methodology also allows actuaries to measure portfolio-specific mortality improvements. Finally, the method assists actuaries in determining a representative mortality level for long-term applications like reserving and pricing, even in the presence of mortality shocks. Results are given for a mature annuity portfolio in the UK, which suggest that the Bayesian information criterion is better for actuarial model selection in this application than Akaike’s information criterion.

Decision analysis of the elderly participating in the housing reverse mortgage: Based on bequest motivation constraint

From the perspective of consumption preference and bequest preference, this paper constructs a financial actuarial model and studies thelifetime value change of senior citizens to participate in housing reverse mortgage(HRM). The research results are as follows: (1) The trade-off between changes in the value of consumption and inheritance is the main decision rule to participate in housing reverse mortgage(HRM), and the intensity of bequest motivation is an important constraint mechanism to the lifetime expectation value of the senior citizensparticipating in housing reverse mortgage(HRM); (2) When the bequest motivation of the elderly is relatively weak, the elderly have conversely strong consumption preference, and the elderly participating in the non-redemption HRM can obtain higher lifelong value change; (3) When the bequest motivation of the elderly is relatively strong, the elderly have correspondingly strong bequest preference. Participating in the HRM with redemption option can realize the option of retaining part of the heritage value and reduce the volatility of heritage loss. Therefore, the restriction of bequest motivation on the demand of the elderly can be reduced to a certain extent, which is more suitable for the retired residents with strong heritage motivation.

Financial Imbalance Risk and Its Control Strategy of China’s Pension Insurance Contribution Rate Reduction

Within the context of China’s Urban Employees’ Basic Pension Insurance (UEBPI), this paper constructs an actuarial model to analyze the financial imbalance risk of contribution rate reduction and to investigate the possibility of further reducing the contribution rate. It is found that the UEBPI fund would show financial imbalance risk in 2024 if the contribution rate is 16%, and no control strategy is introduced. In the case of single strategy (the collection system reform, delay of retirement age, or the introduction of external finance), the financial sustainability of the UEBPI fund could be improved to some extent, whereas the financial imbalance risk remains huge. In the case of a package of control strategies being implemented, the UEBPI fund could be able to continue its operation until 2060, and the contribution rate can be further reduced by 0–4 percentage. Therefore, the implementation of a package of control strategies presents a prerequisite for controlling the financial imbalance risk and further reducing the contribution rate.

Manual on The Simple Linear Actuarial Model

This Simple Linear Actuarial Model (SLAM) manual is the accompanying publication to An Actuarial Model for Costing Universal Health Coverage in Armenia. It provides detailed guidelines in using the Microsoft Excel for SLAM. As an actuarial model, the SLAM calculates and presents the actuarial projections and key financial indicators to support the management of the health insurance programs nationwide and at local levels in assessing the overall costs and financial sustainability of health insurance programs. The goal is to have an actuarial model that they could update themselves without frequent intervention of actuarial experts and use for day-to-day management and assessment of alternative policy configurations of the health insurance schemes.

Construction and Analysis of Actuarial Model of the Influence of Personal Tax Deferred Commercial Pension Insurance on Personal Pension Wealth in China

Taking mortality distribution, surrender value, and tax relief factors into consideration, the authors construct an actuarial model for the influence of personal income tax deferred commercial pension insurance on changes in personal pension wealth and adopts a numerical simulation to deliver the corresponding changes in personal pension wealth to different initial insured age and different initial insured annual salary. In order to better measure the security level of the commercial pension insurance, the model for the net replacement rate of pension of the commercial pension insurance was further constructed. The results show that the effect of participating in the personal income tax deferred commercial pension insurance on the present value of personal pension wealth depends on the combined action of the initial insured age and the initial annual salary. Under the same insured age, because men retire later and work longer than women, men can obtain a higher accumulation of personal pension wealth than women. For insured persons with different income levels, high-income groups can obtain higher personal pension wealth growth, and although low-income groups cannot obtain higher personal pension wealth growth, they can obtain a significant increase in the pension replacement rate by participating in the insurance, thereby better guaranteeing their living standards after retirement. Regardless of the income level, tax relief can be obtained once participating in the insurance, but the value may vary. The optimal tax-saving age for men is 23 years old, and for women 25 years old.

Mortality dynamics and the statutory retirement age proposal: an actuarial view

ABSTRACT This paper aimed to apply (dynamic and static) actuarial models to calculate the balanced contribution rates for the planned (at the minimum age) retirement benefit of the General Social Security System, based on the original and substitutive texts of the reform proposed by Michel Temer’s government. Even with the regular increases in life expectancy and the long-term nature of the analyses, national studies on social security are typically based on the static mortality hypothesis. The relevance of this study is evident due to the demographic changes, particularly the increase in life expectancy, experienced by the Brazilian population in recent decades and which put in question the sustainability of the national pension system. The use of dynamic actuarial models allows for more accurate discussions about the future of social security, besides contributing to the still scarce national literature. Static and dynamic actuarial models were applied to a representative individual, adjusting mortality tables from the United Nations covering 1950 to 2100. It was verified that the actuarially fair rates calculated by the dynamic actuarial model are typically higher than those obtained by the static model, especially for women. This difference is expected to increase as gains in life expectancy become more influenced by the reduction in mortality at more advanced ages. Moreover, if the social security reform is approved (in accordance with either the original or the substitutive text), there are indications from the dynamic model that the contributions rates currently charged would be excessive for men. In turn, these rates would be excessive for women considering the original text, and closer to the actuarially fair value considering the substitutive text. The development, disclosure, and regular updating of official dynamic tables (whether for mortality or other biometric assumptions) are also recommended.