Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Sports ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Dylan Mernagh ◽  
Anthony Weldon ◽  
Josh Wass ◽  
John Phillips ◽  
Nimai Parmar ◽  
...  

This is the first study to report the whole match, ball-in-play (BiP), ball-out-of-play (BoP), and Max BiP (worst case scenario phases of play) demands of professional soccer players competing in the English Championship. Effective playing time per soccer game is typically <60 min. When the ball is out of play, players spend time repositioning themselves, which is likely less physically demanding. Consequently, reporting whole match demands may under-report the physical requirements of soccer players. Twenty professional soccer players, categorized by position (defenders, midfielders, and forwards), participated in this study. A repeated measures design was used to collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data over eight professional soccer matches in the English Championship. Data were divided into whole match and BiP data, and BiP data were further sub-divided into different time points (30–60 s, 60–90 s, and >90 s), providing peak match demands. Whole match demands recorded were compared to BiP and Max BiP, with BiP data excluding all match stoppages, providing a more precise analysis of match demands. Whole match metrics were significantly lower than BiP metrics (p < 0.05), and Max BiP for 30–60 s was significantly higher than periods between 60–90 s and >90 s. No significant differences were found between positions. BiP analysis allows for a more accurate representation of the game and physical demands imposed on professional soccer players. Through having a clearer understanding of maximum game demands in professional soccer, practitioners can design more specific training methods to better prepare players for worst case scenario passages of play.


2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathias M. Siems

Law has to be able to respond to new or changing circumstances. This ‘legal adaptability’ may be more important than details in the ‘law as such’. However, its meaning and its significance have not yet been analysed in detail. Thus, legal adaptability will be examined in this article. It looks at the worst case scenario by discussing a fictional country (Elbonia) where legal adaptability is poor, and identifies the main adaptability criteria. By using empirical data from the three Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), it also provides an example of how to ascertain the degree of legal adaptability of particular countries.


2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naji Arwashan

Abstract The Forming Limit Diagram is used in circle grid analysis to check the safety of a formed panel. The shape of the Forming Limit Diagram for steel is always the same, it is only the vertical position of the diagram that varies depending on the value of FLD0. For steel, FLD0 is widely accepted to be dependent on the thickness and n value which are both inherently indeterministic, and can exhibit variations, small or large, depending on the manufacturing process. To account for this variability in determining the safety of a formed panel, the engineering practice in many companies is to use a minimum value for FLD0 called Worst Case Scenario, because it is calculated using minimum values for both t and n. This paper presents a different and better approach to calculate the minimum value of FLD0. The approach is based on probabilistic concepts, and allows the calculation of a minimum value for FLD0 that is related to a certain probability of occurrence. The derivation technique used in the paper is borrowed from Reliability Analysis and tailored to solve our problem. The derivation leads to a simple formula that can be easily used. The minimum value of FLD0 calculated according to the paper is more accurate than the Worst Case Scenario, and provides better cost saving since it is always greater than the Worst Case Scenario value.


Author(s):  
Barbara Bernhardt ◽  
Julia B. Rauch

The focus, depth, and use of genetic family histories vary depending on the agency purpose and the client's presenting problem. Failure to obtain genetic family histories can result in inaccurate assessment and incomplete or misdirected services. In the worst-case scenario, failure to obtain such information and to advise clients of available genetic services are potential grounds for malpractice and wrongful-adoption suits. The authors discuss approaches to obtaining and recording genetic family histories and present criteria for referral to genetic services. The authors recommend that agency administrators consider consulting with a genetic professional to determine the appropriate focus of genetic family histories within the agency, design a protocol, and arrange in-service training in use of the protocol.


Author(s):  
Joel M. Stager ◽  
Andrew C. Cornett ◽  
Hiroki Naganobori

Electronics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhensen Tang ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Yaqing Chi ◽  
Liang Fang

In this paper, the dependence of sensing currents on various device parameters is comprehensively studied by simulating the complete crossbar array rather than its equivalent analytical model. The worst-case scenario for read operation is strictly analyzed and defined in terms of selected location and data pattern, respectively, based on the effect of parasitic sneak paths and interconnection resistance. It is shown that the worst-case data pattern depends on the trade-off between the shunting effect of the parasitic sneak paths and the current injection effect of the parasitic sneak leakage, thus requiring specific analysis in practical simulations. In dealing with that, we propose a concept of the threshold array size incorporating the trade-off to define the parameter-dependent worst-case data pattern. This figure-of-merit provides guidelines for the worst-case scenario analysis of the crossbar array read operations.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document