Phylogenetic analysis of the major causative agents of hand, foot and mouth disease in Suzhou city, Jiangsu province, China, in 2012–2013

Abstract Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a rising public health problem and has attracted considerable attention worldwide. The purpose of this study was to develop an optimal model with meteorological factors to predict the epidemic of HFMD. Methods Two types of methods, back propagation neural networks (BP) and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), were employed to develop forecasting models, based on the monthly HFMD incidences and meteorological factors during 2009–2016 in Jiangsu province, China. Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were employed to select model and evaluate the performance of the models. Results Four models were constructed. The multivariate BP model was constructed using the HFMD incidences lagged from 1 to 4 months, mean temperature, rainfall and their one order lagged terms as inputs. The other BP model was fitted just using the lagged HFMD incidences as inputs. The univariate ARIMA model was specified as ARIMA (1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 (AIC = 1132.12, BIC = 1440.43). And the multivariate ARIMAX with one order lagged temperature as external predictor was fitted based on this ARIMA model (AIC = 1132.37, BIC = 1142.76). The multivariate BP model performed the best in both model fitting stage and prospective forecasting stage, with a MAPE no more than 20%. The performance of the multivariate ARIMAX model was similar to that of the univariate ARIMA model. Both performed much worse than the two BP models, with a high MAPE near to 40%. Conclusion The multivariate BP model effectively integrated the autocorrelation of the HFMD incidence series. Meanwhile, it also comprehensively combined the climatic variables and their hysteresis effects. The introduction of the climate terms significantly improved the prediction accuracy of the BP model. This model could be an ideal method to predict the epidemic level of HFMD, which is of great importance for the public health authorities.

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Epidemiological and genetic analysis concerning the non-enterovirus 71 and non-coxsackievirus A16 causative agents related to hand, foot and mouth disease in Anyang city, Henan Province, China, from 2011 to 2015

Journal of Medical Virology ◽

10.1002/jmv.24847 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 89 (10) ◽

pp. 1749-1758 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Yang Li ◽

Honghong Bao ◽

Xiangping Zhang ◽

Mingqiang Zhai ◽

Xiaobing Bao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Genetic Analysis ◽

Enterovirus 71 ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Henan Province ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Coxsackievirus A16 ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Causative Agents

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Molecular epidemiology and phylogenetic analysis of foot and mouth disease virus type ‘O’ and evaluation of its carrier state in cattle of Assam by Real time PCR

Indian Journal of Animal Research ◽

10.18805/ijar.b-3670 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Sangeeta Baro ◽

Krishna Sharma ◽

Biswajyoti Sharma ◽

Shantanu Tamuly ◽

P. Deka ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Phylogenetic Analysis ◽

Real Time ◽

Disease Virus ◽

Real Time Pcr ◽

Sandwich Elisa ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Carrier State ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease Virus ◽

Foot And Mouth

The molecular epidemiological study of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) has been carried out from different outbreaks in Assam the present study is based on the nucleotide sequencingof circulating FMDV serotype. The samples were subjected to sandwich ELISA, multiplex-PCR and molecular phylogeny to identify the type species. The phylogenetic analysis of virus sequence revealed similarity with theBangladesh isolates in the major branching pattern. The serotype ‘O’has found to be dominant and responsible for most of the recentoutbreaks.Thepersistence of serotype ‘O’ and cytokines expression of IL-1á, IL-1â, IFN-á, TNF-á in blood of recovered animals were done by Real time PCR. The findings indicated that IL-1á, IFN-á and TNF-á genes were up-regulated upto 3 months post infection but IL-1â found to be down regulated with progression of recovery. The present study thus supports that real-time PCR is a powerful technique for reliable detection of persistent FMDV in recovered animals.

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Emergence, Circulation, and Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis of Coxsackievirus A6- and Coxsackievirus A10-Associated Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Infections from 2008 to 2012 in Shenzhen, China

Journal of Clinical Microbiology ◽

10.1128/jcm.01231-13 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 51 (11) ◽

pp. 3560-3566 ◽

Cited By ~ 81

Author(s):

Ya-Qing He ◽

Long Chen ◽

Wen-Bo Xu ◽

Hong Yang ◽

Han-Zhong Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Phylogenetic Analysis ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Coxsackievirus A6 ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Egypt during 2013-2014: Molecular characterization of serotypes A, O, and SAT2

Veterinary World ◽

10.14202/vetworld.2019.190-197 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 190-197 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Emad Diab ◽

Abdel-Hamid I. Bazid ◽

Mohamed Fawzy ◽

Wagdy R. El-Ashmawy ◽

Adel A. Fayed ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Phylogenetic Analysis ◽

Vaccine Strain ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Rt Pcr ◽

Serotype A ◽

Serotype O ◽

Fmdv Serotypes ◽

Mouth Disease Virus ◽

Foot And Mouth

Background and Aim: Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotypes A, O and South African Territories (SAT2) are endemic in Egypt; each is presented by a number of partially related topotypes and lineages, depending on their geographical origin. Continuous mutations and the emergence of new topotypes that lead to occasional vaccination failures were frequently recorded, so this study aimed to genetically characterize the circulating FMD virus strains in Egypt during 2013 and 2014 outbreaks, focusing on amino acids variations in VP1 region. Materials and Methods: A total of 51 oral tissue samples were collected from cattle and buffaloes in 13 farms, and 38 individual cases showed clinical signs suspected to be FMD in six Egyptian Governorates (Cairo, Giza, Qaliubia, Fayoum, Sharquia, and Assiut). FMDV in collected samples was characterized by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) amplification of full VP1 region, sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. Results: Out of 51 samples, 44 (86.27%) were positive by RT-PCR using universal primers. Serotype O was predominant and detected in 31 samples (70.45%), serotype A was detected in 9 samples (20.45%), and then serotype SAT2 was identified in 4 samples (9.10%). Sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of VP1 demonstrated clustering of serotype O, A, and SAT2 in EA-3 topotype, ASIA topotype, and topotype VII, respectively. Serotype O is closely related to O/SUD/8/2008 with 94.6% identity but showed 14.6% differences from vaccine strain (O/PanAsia-2) of ME-SA topotype. Furthermore, Serotype A and SAT2 were closely related to recent circulating Egyptian isolates and vaccine strains type A/EGY/1/2012 (Asia topotype, lineage Iran-05) with identity 96.4% and vaccine strain of SAT2/EGY/A/2012 (topotype VII, lineage SAT2/VII/ALX-12) with identity 95.3%, respectively. Conclusion: The present study recommended further studies of serotype O to determine the immunogenic relationship between the vaccine strain and the new strains to attain maximum protection against circulating viruses.

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