scholarly journals Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lena Reimann ◽  
Athanasios T. Vafeidis ◽  
Sally Brown ◽  
Jochen Hinkel ◽  
Richard S. J. Tol
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayed Hemeda

AbstractAlexandria is one of the Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage sites at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. The city’s position on the Mediterranean coast means it is especially vulnerable to rising sea levels. Alexandria is one of UNESCO sites in Egypt at risk from flooding. All the archaeological sites in the northern coast of Egypt are also said to be at risk from coastal erosion. The flood risk in Alexandria is expected to reach a tipping point by 2050. This research presents the numerical analysis of geotechnical and structural damage mechanism of Catacombs of Kom El-Shoqafa and El-Shatbi Necropolis; the sites have the lowest topography in Alexandria induced by the sea level rise and heavy rain due to the Climate Change, based on Finite Element PLAXIS Code. The purpose of the study was to investigate the behavior fully-saturated soft rock/ hard soil subjected to ground water intrusions. The main objective of this study is to very accurately record and analyze geotechnical problems and induced structural failure mechanisms that have been observed and accounted for in field, experimental and Numerical studies. The land area is also vulnerable to coastal flooding. It is widely expected that the numerical analysis of such geotechnical problems will contribute to the preservation of cultural heritage. The present research presents an attempt and experimental study to design a PLAXIS 2D FE model to simulate hard soil/hard rock problems, distortion and stress analysis of the complex structure of the catacombs. Plastic modeling or Mohr—Coulomb model was used in advanced soils during various stages of numerical analysis. Results are recorded and discussed regarding stress and volumetric behavior of soil/rocks. Groundwater infiltration into pores or fissures of rock and soil has a great influence on the engineering mechanical properties of rocks and soils.


Author(s):  
Kristian Breili ◽  
Matthew James Ross Simpson ◽  
Erlend Klokkervold ◽  
Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal

Abstract. Using new high accuracy Light Detection and Ranging elevation data we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Thus far, we have mapped ~ 80 % of the coast, for which we currently have data of sufficient accuracy to perform our analysis. Although Norway is generally at low risk from sea-level rise largely owing to its steep topography, the maps presented here show that on local scales, many parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. There is a considerable amount of infrastructure at risk along the relatively long and complicated coastline. Nationwide we identify a total area of 400 km2, 105,000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a 200 year storm-surge event at present. These numbers will increase to 610 km2, 137,000, and 1340 km with projected sea-level rise to 2090 (95th percentile of RCP8.5 as recommended in planning). We find that some of our results are likely biased high owing to erroneous mapping (at least for lower water levels close to the tidal datum which delineates the coastline). A comparison of control points from different terrain types indicates that the elevation model has a root mean square error of 0.26 m and is the largest source of uncertainty in our mapping method. The coastal flooding maps and associated statistics are freely available, and alongside the development of coastal climate services, will help communicate the risks of sea-level rise and storm surge to stakeholders. This will in turn aid coastal management and climate adaption work in Norway.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 673-694
Author(s):  
Kristian Breili ◽  
Matthew James Ross Simpson ◽  
Erlend Klokkervold ◽  
Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal

Abstract. Using new high-accuracy light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Thus far, we have mapped ∼80 % of the coast, for which we currently have data of sufficient accuracy to perform our analysis. Although Norway is generally at low risk from sea level rise largely owing to its steep topography and land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment, the maps presented here show that, on local scales, many parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. There is a considerable amount of infrastructure at risk along the relatively long and complicated coastline. Nationwide we identify a total area of 400 km2, 105 000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a 200-year storm surge event at present. These numbers will increase to 610 km2, 137 000, and 1340 km with projected sea level rise to 2090 (95th percentile of RCP8.5 as recommended in planning). We find that some of our results are likely biased high owing to erroneous mapping (at least for lower water levels close to the tidal datum which delineates the coastline). A comparison of control points from different terrain types indicates that the elevation model has a root-mean-square error of 0.26 m and is the largest source of uncertainty in our mapping method. The coastal flooding maps and associated statistics are freely available, and alongside the development of coastal climate services, will help communicate the risks of sea level rise and storm surge to stakeholders. This will in turn aid coastal management and climate adaptation work in Norway.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayed Hemeda

Abstract Alexandria is one of the Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage sites at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise.The city’s position on the Mediterranean coast means it is especially vulnerable to rising sea levels. Alexandria is one of UNESCO sites in Egypt at risk from flooding. All the archaeological sites in the northern coast of Egypt are also said to be at risk from coastal erosion. The flood risk in Alexandria is expected to reach a tipping point by 2050.This research presents the numerical analysis of geotechnical and structural damage mechanism of Catacombs of Kom El-Shoqafa and El-Shatbi Necropolis, the sites have the lowest topography in Alexandria induced by the sea level rise and heavy rain due to the Climate Change, based on Finite Element PLAXIS Code. The purpose of the study was to investigate the behavior fully-saturated soft rock/ hard soil subjected to ground water intrusions. The main objective of this study is to very accurately record and analyze geotechnical problems and induced structural failure mechanisms that have been observed and accounted for in field, experimental and Numerical studies. The land area is also vulnerable to coastal flooding. It is widely expected that the numerical analysis of such geotechnical problems will contribute to the preservation of cultural heritage. The present research presents an attempt and experimental study to design a PLAXIS 2D FE model to simulate hard soil/hard rock problems, distortion and stress analysis of the complex structure of the catacombs. Plastic modeling or Mohr - Coulomb model was used in advanced soils during various stages of numerical analysis. Results are recorded and discussed regarding stress and volumetric behavior of soil / rocks. Groundwater infiltration into pores or fissures of rock and soil has a great influence on the engineering mechanical properties of rocks and soils.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. e0118571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Neumann ◽  
Athanasios T. Vafeidis ◽  
Juliane Zimmermann ◽  
Robert J. Nicholls

2019 ◽  
Vol 653 ◽  
pp. 1522-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael J. Bergillos ◽  
Cristobal Rodriguez-Delgado ◽  
Gregorio Iglesias

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 3090
Author(s):  
Sergio B. Jiménez-Hernández ◽  
Ofelia Pérez Montero ◽  
Eustorgio Meza ◽  
Yunior R. Velázquez ◽  
Juan R. Castellanos ◽  
...  

This paper presents a coastal migration index (CMI) useful for decision-making in the current scenario of sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change. The CMI includes coastal human population density, degree of urbanization, and coastal-flooding penetration. Quantitative and qualitative statistical techniques and the geographic information system ArcGIS View 9.0 were used. Further, a panel of fifteen international experts in coastal management issues was consulted to establish and validate the CMI. Results led to three index components based on 22 indicators. CMI was applied in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico and in Santiago de Cuba province, Cuba. According to CMI estimates, the risk levels associated with SLR for human settlements analyzed in Mexico and Cuba were 5.3% and 11.0%, respectively. The most severely affected communities will require resettlement. Meanwhile, the CMI determined that 15.8% of the Mexican territory studied will be able to withstand the effects of SLR through the management of engineering works that will protect human settlements. The CMI determined that 79.0%, in the case of Tamaulipas, as well as 89.0% of the Cuban territory, will not require new policies or guidelines to promote conservation and protection of coastal natural resources. Lastly, the method used allowed for creation of a CMI stoplight map useful to coastal decision-makers to adopt sound management actions.


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