scholarly journals Coastal Migration Index for Coastal Flooding Events Increased by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change: Mexico and Cuba Case Studies

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 3090
Author(s):  
Sergio B. Jiménez-Hernández ◽  
Ofelia Pérez Montero ◽  
Eustorgio Meza ◽  
Yunior R. Velázquez ◽  
Juan R. Castellanos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Human Settlements ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Migration Index ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
New Policies

This paper presents a coastal migration index (CMI) useful for decision-making in the current scenario of sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change. The CMI includes coastal human population density, degree of urbanization, and coastal-flooding penetration. Quantitative and qualitative statistical techniques and the geographic information system ArcGIS View 9.0 were used. Further, a panel of fifteen international experts in coastal management issues was consulted to establish and validate the CMI. Results led to three index components based on 22 indicators. CMI was applied in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico and in Santiago de Cuba province, Cuba. According to CMI estimates, the risk levels associated with SLR for human settlements analyzed in Mexico and Cuba were 5.3% and 11.0%, respectively. The most severely affected communities will require resettlement. Meanwhile, the CMI determined that 15.8% of the Mexican territory studied will be able to withstand the effects of SLR through the management of engineering works that will protect human settlements. The CMI determined that 79.0%, in the case of Tamaulipas, as well as 89.0% of the Cuban territory, will not require new policies or guidelines to promote conservation and protection of coastal natural resources. Lastly, the method used allowed for creation of a CMI stoplight map useful to coastal decision-makers to adopt sound management actions.

scholarly journals Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

Coastal flooding in the Balearic Islands during the 21st century caused by sea level rise and extreme events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pau Luque Lozano ◽  
Lluís Gómez-Pujol ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Alejandro Orfila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Mean Sea Level

<p>Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. The eventual coastline retreat combined with the action of waves and storm surges will end in more severe damages over coastal areas. These effects are expected to be particularly significant over islands, where coastal zones represent a relatively larger area vulnerable to marine hazards.</p><p>Managing coastal flood risk at regional scales requires a prioritization of resources and socioeconomic activities along the coast. Stakeholders, such as regional authorities, coastal managers and private companies, need tools that help to address the evaluation of coastal risks and criteria to support decision-makers to clarify priorities and critical sites. For this reason, the regional Government of the Balearic Islands (Spain) in association with the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment has launched the Plan for Climate Change Coastal Adaptation. This framework integrates two levels of analysis. The first one relates with the identification of critical areas affected by coastal flooding and erosion under mean sea-level rise scenarios and the quantification of the extent of flooding, including marine extreme events. The second level assesses the impacts on infrastructures and assets from a socioeconomic perspective due to these hazards.</p><p>In this context, this paper quantifies the effects of sea-level rise and marine extreme events caused by storm surges and waves along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea) in terms of coastal flooding and potential erosion. Given the regional scale (~1500 km) of this study, the presented methodology adopts a compromise between accuracy, physical representativity and computational costs. We map the projected flooded coastal areas under two mean sea-level rise climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. To do so, we apply a corrected bathtub algorithm. Additionally, we compute the impact of extreme storm surges and waves using two 35-year hindcasts consistently forced by mean sea level pressure and surface winds from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Waves have been further propagated towards the nearshore to compute wave setup with higher accuracy. The 100-year return levels of joint storm surges and waves are used to map the spatial extent of flooding in more than 200 sandy beaches around the Balearic Islands by mid and late 21st century, using the hydrodynamical LISFLOOD-FP model and a high resolution (2 m) Digital Elevation Model.</p>

scholarly journals Coastal Flooding in the Maldives Induced by Mean Sea-Level Rise and Wind-Waves: From Global to Local Coastal Modelling

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angel Amores ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Rodrigo Pedreros ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Sophie Lecacheux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Major Drawback ◽  
Mean Sea Level

The Maldives, with one of the lowest average land elevations above present-day mean sea level, is among the world regions that will be the most impacted by mean sea-level rise and marine extreme events induced by climate change. Yet, the lack of regional and local information on marine drivers is a major drawback that coastal decision-makers face to anticipate the impacts of climate change along the Maldivian coastlines. In this study we focus on wind-waves, the main driver of extremes causing coastal flooding in the region. We dynamically downscale large-scale fields from global wave models, providing a valuable source of climate information along the coastlines with spatial resolution down to 500 m. This dataset serves to characterise the wave climate around the Maldives, with applications in regional development and land reclamation, and is also an essential input for local flood hazard modelling. We illustrate this with a case study of HA Hoarafushi, an atoll island where local topo-bathymetry is available. This island is exposed to the highest incoming waves in the archipelago and recently saw development of an airport island on its reef via land reclamation. Regional waves are propagated toward the shoreline using a phase-resolving model and coastal inundation is simulated under different mean sea-level rise conditions of up to 1 m above present-day mean sea level. The results are represented as risk maps with different hazard levels gathering inundation depth and speed, providing a clear evidence of the impacts of the sea level rise combined with extreme wave events.

scholarly journals A Study on Coastal Flooding and Risk Assessment under Climate Change in Mid-Western Coast of Taiwan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tai-Wen Hsu ◽  
Dong-Sin Shih ◽  
Chi-Yu Li ◽  
Yuan-Jyh Lan ◽  
Yu-Chen Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Wave Condition ◽  
The Impact

This study integrated coastal-watershed models and combined a risk assessment method to develop a methodology to investigate the impact resulting from coastal disasters under climate change. The mid-western coast of Taiwan suffering from land subsidence was selected as the demonstrative area for the vulnerability analysis based on prediction of sea level rise (SLR), wave run-up, overtopping, and coastal flooding under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039. Database from tidal gauges and satellite images were used to analyze sea level rise using EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition). Extreme wave condition and storm surge were estimated by numerical simulation using WWM (Wind Wave Model) and POM (Princeton Ocean Model). Coastal inundation was then simulated via WASH123D watershed model. The risk map of study areas based on the analyses of vulnerability and disaster were established using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique. Predictions of sea level rise, the maximum wave condition and storm surge under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039 are presented. The results indicate that the sea level at the mid-western coast of Taiwan will rise in an average of 5.8 cm, equivalent to a rising velocity of 2.8 mm/year. The analysis indicates that Wuqi, Lukang, Mailiao, and Taixi townships are susceptive, low resistant and low resilient, and reaches the high risk level. The assessment provides that important information for making adaption policy in the mid-western coast of Taiwan.

scholarly journals Coastal flood alleviation through management interventions under changing climate conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-203
Author(s):  
William George Bennett ◽  
Harshinie Karunarathna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Management ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Coastal flooding has disastrous consequences on people, infrastructure, properties and the environment. Increasing flood risk as a result of global climate change is a significant concern both within the UK and globally. To counter any potential increase in future flooding, a range of potential management options are being considered. This study aims to explore future coastal management practice for flood alleviation, incorporating the influence of climate change. Design/methodology/approach The Taf estuary in South West Wales, a macro-tidal estuary which has a history of coastal flooding, was chosen as the case study in this paper to investigate the impact of coastal management interventions such as construction of hard defences, managed realignment or altering land use of affiliated ecosystems such as salt marshes on the complex hydrodynamics and hence flooding of the surrounding areas of the estuary. The study was carried out using a numerical hydrodynamic model of the Taf estuary, developed using the process-based Delft3D modelling software. Findings The role of the selected management interventions on coastal flooding was investigated using an extreme storm condition, both with and without the impact of future sea level rise. The results highlight the scale of the effect of sea level rise, with the selected management interventions revealing that minimising the increase in flooding in future requires careful consideration of the available options. Originality/value This paper explores the highlighted role of coastal management practice in future with the influence of climate change to study how effective alternative methods can be for flood alleviation.

scholarly journals Impact of sea level rise on current and wave in Van Uc coastal area

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 313-325
Author(s):  
Nguyen Minh Hai ◽  
Vu Duy Vinh ◽  
Tran Dinh Lan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Navigation Channel ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
Outer Area

This paper presents the results of analysis, comparison of some characteristics of current, wave at Van Uc estuary area when being affected by sea level rise due to climate change based on Delft3D model. Scenario groups are established: The current scenario and the scenarios simulating effect of sea level rise 0.5 m and 1.0 m. The results of calculation and simulation show that the velocity values change locally when sea level rises: Rise in the northern and southern areas (0.2–5 cm/s); decrease in the navigation channel (0.6–30 cm/s). Sea level rise causes the increase of wave height in the coastal area (13.5–43.8% in the dry season and 20–40% in the rainy season) and fewer changes in the outer area.

scholarly journals Attitudes about Sea Level Rise Adaptation: Comparison between Miami-Dade and the Rest of Florida

EDIS ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (5) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Bailey Emrick ◽  
Misti Sharp ◽  
Xiang Bi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Saltwater Intrusion ◽  
Resource Economics ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
The State ◽  
Fact Sheet ◽  
Economics Department ◽  
Sea Level Rise Adaptation

Sea-level rise and climate change are important issues in science, politics, and communities. Sea-level rise is a particularly contentious topic in Florida, where expected impacts include coastal flooding, shrinking shorelines, and saltwater intrusion. It is unclear what Floridians think about sea-level rise and the ways in which the state can adapt to these impacts. This 5-page fact sheet written by Bailey Emrick, Misti Sharp, and Xiang Bi and published by the UF/IFAS Food and Resource Economics Department summarizes findings from two recent surveys examining attitudes of Miami residents and those of residents of the rest of Florida about sea-level rise and potential adaptations to it

scholarly journals Geotechnical modelling of the climate change impact on world heritage properties in Alexandria, Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayed Hemeda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Numerical Analysis ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
World Heritage ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Hard Soil ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Geotechnical Problems

AbstractAlexandria is one of the Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage sites at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. The city’s position on the Mediterranean coast means it is especially vulnerable to rising sea levels. Alexandria is one of UNESCO sites in Egypt at risk from flooding. All the archaeological sites in the northern coast of Egypt are also said to be at risk from coastal erosion. The flood risk in Alexandria is expected to reach a tipping point by 2050. This research presents the numerical analysis of geotechnical and structural damage mechanism of Catacombs of Kom El-Shoqafa and El-Shatbi Necropolis; the sites have the lowest topography in Alexandria induced by the sea level rise and heavy rain due to the Climate Change, based on Finite Element PLAXIS Code. The purpose of the study was to investigate the behavior fully-saturated soft rock/ hard soil subjected to ground water intrusions. The main objective of this study is to very accurately record and analyze geotechnical problems and induced structural failure mechanisms that have been observed and accounted for in field, experimental and Numerical studies. The land area is also vulnerable to coastal flooding. It is widely expected that the numerical analysis of such geotechnical problems will contribute to the preservation of cultural heritage. The present research presents an attempt and experimental study to design a PLAXIS 2D FE model to simulate hard soil/hard rock problems, distortion and stress analysis of the complex structure of the catacombs. Plastic modeling or Mohr—Coulomb model was used in advanced soils during various stages of numerical analysis. Results are recorded and discussed regarding stress and volumetric behavior of soil/rocks. Groundwater infiltration into pores or fissures of rock and soil has a great influence on the engineering mechanical properties of rocks and soils.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Flexibility in Adaptation Projects for Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myung-Jin Kim ◽  
Robert J. Nicholls ◽  
John M. Preston ◽  
Gustavo A. M. De Almeida
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Real Option Analysis ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Stage Adaptations

Abstract Climate change adaptation inherently entails investment decision-making under the high levels of uncertainty. Under these circumstances, the option of deferring a decision to adapt is one of possible strategies to address uncertainty. However, this decision will potentially leave people and areas exposed to the risk of coastal flooding during the deferral. In order to address this issue, a single fixed large investment can be divided into two or more sequential investments. This reduces the initial investment cost and adds flexibility about the size and timing of subsequent investment decisions as the magnitude of climate change becomes more available. This paper employs a real option analysis framework, as an analytical tool, to evaluate adaptations including flexibility to reduce both the risk and uncertainty of climate change, against increasing coastal flooding due to sea-level rise as an example. This paper considers (i) how to design the sequence of adaptation options under the growing risk of sea-level rise, and (ii) how to make the efficient use of flexibility included in adaptations for addressing uncertainty. This research incorporates a set of flexibilities (i.e. wait or future growth) into single-stage investments (i.e. raising coastal defence from 2.5 mAOD to 3.5mAOD or 4.0 mAOD) in two or three stages so that a set of multiple-stage adaptations are created to address both the risk and uncertainty of climate change. The proposed method compares the multiple-stage adaptations in economic terms, including optimisation, providing important additional information on the efficiency of flexible adaptation strategies given the uncertainty of climate change. The results from the analysis suggest that an efficient and robust strategy can be chosen for a short- and long- term adaptation.

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