scholarly journals The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Fu ◽  
Lifang Wang ◽  
Bingyun Zheng ◽  
Haiyan Shao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Structure ◽  
Gap Model ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Probabilistic Information ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Probability Information ◽  
Evaluation Information

AbstractEmergencies often occur irregularly, such as infectious diseases, earthquakes, wars, floods, the diffusion and leakage of chemically toxic and harmful substances, etc. These emergencies can bring huge disasters to people, even worse, the time left for people to make critical decisions is usually very limited. When an emergency occurs, the most important thing for people is to make reasonable decisions as soon as possible to deal with the current problems, otherwise, the situation may deteriorate further. The paper proposes an emergency decision-making algorithm under the constraints of the limited time and incomplete information, the research is mainly carried out from the following aspects, firstly, we use the data structure of the hesitant fuzzy probabilistic linguistic set to collect the basic data after careful comparison, which has three advantages, (1) considering the hesitation in the decision-making process, each evaluation information is allowed to contain multiple values instead of just one value; (2) each evaluation value is followed by a probability value, which further describes the details of the evaluation information; (3) the data structure allows some probability information to be unknown, which effectively expands the application scope of the algorithm. Secondly, the maximization gap model is proposed to calculate unknown parameters, the model can distinguish alternatives with small differences. Thirdly, all the evaluation information will be aggregated by the dynamic hesitant probability fuzzy weighted arithmetic operator. Subsequently, an instance is given to illustrate the effectiveness and the accuracy of the algorithm proposed in the paper. Finally, the advantages of the proposed algorithm are further demonstrated by comparing it with other outstanding algorithms. The main contribution of the paper is that we propose the maximization gap model to obtain the unknown parameters, which can effectively and accurately distinguish alternatives with small differences.

scholarly journals An Emergency Decision-Making Method for Probabilistic Linguistic Term Sets Extended by D Number Theory

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongming Mo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Number Theory ◽  
Linguistic Term ◽  
Probabilistic Linguistic Term Sets ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Property Losses ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Evaluation Information

Emergency decision-making has become as one of the hot issues in recent years. The aim of emergency decision-making is to reduce the casualties and property losses. All the processes of emergency decision-making are full of incompleteness and hesitation. The problem of emergency decision-making can be regarded as one of the multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) problems. In this manuscript, a new method to solve the problem of emergency decision-making named D-PLTS is proposed, based on D number theory and the probability linguistic term set (PLTS). The evaluation information given by experts is tidied to be the form of PLTS, which can be directly transferred to the form of the D number, no matter whether the information is complete or not. Furthermore, the integration property of D number theory is carried out to fuse the information. Besides, two examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Compared with some existing methods, the D-PLTS is more straightforward and has less computational complexity. Allocation weights that are more reasonable is the future work for the D-PLTS method.

An improved multi-criteria emergency decision-making method in environmental disasters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang-Jun Jiang ◽  
Hong-Xia Chen ◽  
Hong-Hua Sun ◽  
Mohammad Yazdi ◽  
Arman Nedjati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Disasters ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision

scholarly journals An Emergency Decision-Making Method for Urban Rainstorm Water-Logging: A China Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiyong Ding ◽  
Juefang Cai ◽  
Guangxiang Guo ◽  
Chen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Water Logging ◽  
Multi Attribute Utility Theory ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision

With the rapid development of the urbanization process, rainstorm water-logging events occur more frequently in big cities in China, which causes great impact on urban traffic safety and brings about severe economic losses. Water-logging has become a hot issue of widespread concern in China. As one kind of natural disasters and emergencies, rainstorm water-logging has the uncertainties of occurrence, development, and evolution. Thus, the emergency decision-making in rainstorm water-logging should be carried out in stages according to its development trend, which is very complicated. In this paper, an emergency decision-making method was proposed for urban water-logging with a hybrid use of dynamic network game technology, Bayesian analysis, and multi-attribute utility theory. The dynamic game process between “rainstorm water-logging” and “decision-making group” was established and the dynamic generation of emergency schemes was analyzed based on Bayesian analysis in various stages of water-logging. In terms of decision-making attributes, this paper mainly considered two goals, i.e., ensuring smooth traffic and controlling emergency cost. The multi-attribute utility theory was used to select the final scheme. An example analysis in Guangzhou of China showed that the method is more targeted and can achieve emergency management objectives more effectively when compared with traditional methods. Therefore, it can provide reference for the scientific decision-making of emergency management in urban rainstorm water-logging.

scholarly journals Managing Non-Homogeneous Information and Experts’ Psychological Behavior in Group Emergency Decision Making

Symmetry ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Wang ◽  
Álvaro Labella ◽  
Rosa M. Rodríguez ◽  
Ying-Ming Wang ◽  
Luis Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Psychological Behavior ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision

scholarly journals An Artificial Intelligence Fusion Model for Cardiac Emergency Decision Making: Application and Robustness Analysis

10.2196/19428 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. e19428
Author(s):  
Liheng Gong ◽  
Xiao Zhang ◽  
Ling Li
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Medical Treatment ◽  
Coordination Mechanism ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Medical Decision ◽  
Knowledge Reasoning ◽  
Emergency Medical ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Cardiac Emergency

Background During cardiac emergency medical treatment, reducing the incidence of avoidable adverse events, ensuring the safety of patients, and generally improving the quality and efficiency of medical treatment have been important research topics in theoretical and practical circles. Objective This paper examines the robustness of the decision-making reasoning process from the overall perspective of the cardiac emergency medical system. Methods The principle of robustness was introduced into our study on the quality and efficiency of cardiac emergency decision making. We propose the concept of robustness for complex medical decision making by targeting the problem of low reasoning efficiency and accuracy in cardiac emergency decision making. The key bottlenecks such as anti-interference capability, fault tolerance, and redundancy were studied. The rules of knowledge acquisition and transfer in the decision-making process were systematically analyzed to reveal the core role of knowledge reasoning. Results The robustness threshold method was adopted to construct the robustness criteria group of the system, and the fusion and coordination mechanism was realized through information entropy, information gain, and mutual information methods. Conclusions A set of fusion models and robust threshold methods such as the R2CMIFS (treatment mode of fibroblastic sarcoma) model and the RTCRF (clinical trial observation mode) model were proposed. Our study enriches the theoretical research on robustness in this field.

Pythagorean probabilistic hesitant fuzzy aggregation operators and their application in decision-making

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bushra Batool ◽  
Saleem Abdullah ◽  
Shahzaib Ashraf ◽  
Mumtaz Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Number ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Aggregation Operators ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Operational Laws ◽  
Fuzzy Aggregation ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Established Technique

PurposeThis is mainly because the restrictive condition of intuitionistic hesitant fuzzy number (IHFN) is relaxed by the membership functions of Pythagorean probabilistic hesitant fuzzy number (PyPHFN), so the range of domain value of PyPHFN is greatly expanded. The paper aims to develop a novel decision-making technique based on aggregation operators under PyPHFNs. For this, the authors propose Algebraic operational laws using algebraic norm for PyPHFNs. Furthermore, a list of aggregation operators, namely Pythagorean probabilistic hesitant fuzzy weighted average (PyPHFWA) operator, Pythagorean probabilistic hesitant fuzzy weighted geometric (PyPHFWG) operator, Pythagorean probabilistic hesitant fuzzy ordered weighted average (PyPHFOWA) operator, Pythagorean probabilistic hesitant fuzzy ordered weighted geometric (PyPHFOWG) operator, Pythagorean probabilistic hesitant fuzzy hybrid weighted average (PyPHFHWA) operator and Pythagorean probabilistic hesitant fuzzy hybrid weighted geometric (PyPHFHWG) operator, are proposed based on the defined algebraic operational laws. Also, interesting properties of these aggregation operators are discussed in detail.Design/methodology/approachPyPHFN is not only a generalization of the traditional IHFN, but also a more effective tool to deal with uncertain multi-attribute decision-making problems.FindingsIn addition, the authors design the algorithm to handle the uncertainty in emergency decision-making issues. At last, a numerical case study of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as an emergency decision-making is introduced to show the implementation and validity of the established technique. Besides, the comparison of the existing and the proposed technique is established to show the effectiveness and validity of the established technique.Originality/valuePaper is original and not submitted elsewhere.

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