Rockfall and Rainfall Correlation in the Anaga Nature Reserve in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain)

Rockfalls are frequent and damaging phenomena that occur on steep or vertical slopes, in coastal areas, mountains and along coastal cliff. Water, in different forms, is the most common triggered factor of rockfalls. Consequently, we can consider that precipitation is the most influential factor for slope instabilities and it influences almost all other water parameters. Besides, the specific geology of the Anaga nature reserve in the volcanic island of Tenerife, together with its steep landscape, contributes to the instability of the slopes and frequent rockfalls. Recently, due to climate change and global warming, the annual precipitation/rainfall has declined but the number of heavy storms, associated with intense rainfall and strong winds, events that exceed precipitation thresholds in a brief period has increased which triggers slope movements. This paper describes the analysis of information on rainfall-induced rockfalls in Anaga, Tenerife (Canary Islands), to forecast rock failures of social significance and to improve the capability to respond and emergency decision making. To define reliable thresholds for a certain area, we analized information during the period 2010–2016, reconstructed the rockfall events, and statistically analyzed the historical rainfall conditions that led to landslides. The summary graph correlating precipitation to the probability of occurrence of an event was plotted. Statistical and probability graphs were made with the direct relationship between the number of rockfall events and total rainfall in that period by examining the maximum daily precipitation, not only on the day of the event but up to 3 days before. Hence, the results of this study would serve as a guide for the possible forecasting of rainfall-induced rockfalls, especially for road maintenance services, so that they can be on alert or mobilize the necessary resources in advance depending on the intensity of the expected rainfall.

The optimal emergency decision-making method with incomplete probabilistic information

Emergencies often occur irregularly, such as infectious diseases, earthquakes, wars, floods, the diffusion and leakage of chemically toxic and harmful substances, etc. These emergencies can bring huge disasters to people, even worse, the time left for people to make critical decisions is usually very limited. When an emergency occurs, the most important thing for people is to make reasonable decisions as soon as possible to deal with the current problems, otherwise, the situation may deteriorate further. The paper proposes an emergency decision-making algorithm under the constraints of the limited time and incomplete information, the research is mainly carried out from the following aspects, firstly, we use the data structure of the hesitant fuzzy probabilistic linguistic set to collect the basic data after careful comparison, which has three advantages, (1) considering the hesitation in the decision-making process, each evaluation information is allowed to contain multiple values instead of just one value; (2) each evaluation value is followed by a probability value, which further describes the details of the evaluation information; (3) the data structure allows some probability information to be unknown, which effectively expands the application scope of the algorithm. Secondly, the maximization gap model is proposed to calculate unknown parameters, the model can distinguish alternatives with small differences. Thirdly, all the evaluation information will be aggregated by the dynamic hesitant probability fuzzy weighted arithmetic operator. Subsequently, an instance is given to illustrate the effectiveness and the accuracy of the algorithm proposed in the paper. Finally, the advantages of the proposed algorithm are further demonstrated by comparing it with other outstanding algorithms. The main contribution of the paper is that we propose the maximization gap model to obtain the unknown parameters, which can effectively and accurately distinguish alternatives with small differences.

THE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR COVID 19 "A RACE AGAINST TIME": EVIDENCE FROM PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

This article narrates that strategic leadership thinking and quick decision- making ability are vital to minimize the negative impact of COVID 19 on the public health and safety. Current outbreak poses serious need to develop a model for tackling the outbreak. The study also argues that the strategic management process and emergency decision-making provide direction to the leadership efforts in ensuring public health and enable scientific allocation of resources during the COVID 19 pandemic. The study presents the strategic management model of COVID 19 by integrating the strategic management process with emergency decision-making model. The study applies the model on People's Republic of China experience with COVID 19 and finds high applicability of proposed model. Moreover, the study argues that other countries can use proposed model to guard the public health and safety by defeating COVID 19. Deloped strategic management model posses a significant practical implications in the current scenarios, as COVID 19 is posing a threat to human race.

Decades on emergency decision-making: a bibliometric analysis and literature review

When an emergency occurs, effective decisions should be made in a limited time to reduce the casualties and economic losses as much as possible. In the past decades, emergency decision-making (EDM) has become a research hotspot and a lot of studies have been conducted for better managing emergency events under tight time constraint. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the literature on this topic. The objective of this paper is to provide academic community with a complete bibliometric analysis of the EDM researches to generate a global picture of developments, focus areas, and trends in the field. A total of 303 journal publications published between 2010 and 2020 were identified and analyzed using the VOSviewer in regard to cooperation network, co-citation network, and keyword co-occurrence network. The findings indicate that the annual publications in this research field have increased rapidly since 2014. Based on the cooperation network and co-citation network analyses, the most productive and influential countries, institutions, researchers, and their cooperation networks were identified. Using the co-citation network analysis, the landmark articles and the core journals in the EDM area are found out. With the help of the keyword co-occurrence network analysis, research hotspots and development of the EDM domain are determined. According to current trends and blind spots in the literature, possible directions for further investigation are finally suggested for EDM. The literature review results provide valuable information and new insights for both scholars and practitioners to grasp the current situation, hotspots and future research agenda of the EDM field.

The Risk Perception, Behavior of the Public and Public Emotional Guidance Under Emergency of Public Health Research

The psychological changes and behavior of the public in the face of public health emergencies are the important reference for emergency decision-making. This paper systematically reviews the risk perception, behavior and emotion under public health emergencies, and attempts to provide a theoretical framework for the in-depth study of the relationship and influencing factors among the three, so as to further explore the impact of emergency communication resource allocation on public risk perception, behavior and emotion. To provide a theoretical basis for the establishment of a multi-level and comprehensive emotional guidance mechanism.