scholarly journals Multiparameter monitoring of short-term earthquake precursors and its physical basis. Implementation in the Kamchatka region

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 00019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Pulinets ◽  
Dimitar Ouzounov ◽  
Dmitry Davydenko ◽  
Alexei Petrukhin
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Precursors ◽  
Physical Basis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Kamchatka Region ◽  
Multiparameter Monitoring

scholarly journals Principles of organizing earthquake forecasting based on multiparameter sensor-WEB monitoring data

2020 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 03004
Author(s):  
Sergey Pulinets ◽  
Dimitar Ouzounov ◽  
Dmitry Davidenko ◽  
Pavel Budnikov
Keyword(s):  
Data Processing ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Kamchatka Region ◽  
Multiparameter Monitoring ◽  
Intelligent Data Processing ◽  
Processing Service

The paper describes an approach that allows, basing on the data of multiparameter monitoring of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters and using ground-based and satellite measurements, to select from the data stream a time interval indicating the beginning of the final stage of earthquake preparation, and finally using intelligent data processing to carry out a short-term forecast for a time interval of 2 weeks to 1 day before the main shock. Based on the physical model of the lithosphere-atmospheric-ionospheric coupling, the precursors are selected, the ensemble of which is observed only during the precursory periods, and their identification is based on morphological features determined by the physical mechanism of their generation, and not on amplitude selection based on statistical data processing. Basing on the developed maquette of the automatic processing service, the possibility of real-time monitoring of the situation in a seismically active region will be demonstrated using the territory of the Kamchatka region and the Kuril Islands.

Alarm systems based on a pair of short-term earthquake precursors

1988 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 1538-1549
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Grandori ◽  
Elisa Guagenti ◽  
Federico Perotti
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Active Region ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Main Shock ◽  
Weak Shock ◽  
Earthquake Precursors ◽  
Alarm System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Alarm Systems

Abstract A statistical analysis of the foreshock-main shock correlation for a seismically active region in Italy is presented. It is found that the probability that a weak shock be followed within 2 days by a main shock is of the order of 2 per cent, while the probability that a main shock be preceded by a foreshock is of the order of 50 per cent. These results are quite similar to those found by L. Jones (1985) for southern California. The effectiveness of alarm systems based on a pair of short-term earthquake precursors is then analyzed. In particular, the analysis shows under what conditions the precursor, consisting of potential foreshocks, could be combined with another precursor to provide a reasonably effective alarm system.

Multiparameter monitoring of electromagnetic earthquake precursors in the frequency range 0.1 Hz-1 MHz

2014 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Saraev ◽  
K. M. Antaschuk ◽  
A. E. Simakov ◽  
K. B. Bakirov
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Precursors ◽  
Frequency Range ◽  
Multiparameter Monitoring

scholarly journals New opportunities for identification of precursors of sea earthquakes

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Dimitar Parlichev ◽  
Atanas Vasilev
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Research ◽  
Earthquake Precursors ◽  
European Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
European Project ◽  
Gas Source ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Reliable Methods

In many publications, as well as in media statements, prominent foreign and Bulgarian seismologists admit that seismology still does not have reliable methods and technical means for the identification of earthquake precursors in marine conditions (short-term forecast). Several facts, circumstances, and considerations are presented, motivating the need to immediately start experimental research in this area. A Bulgarian patent of a device for capturing underwater gas sources is offered for transmitting characteristics of the underwater gas source to a receiving device on land, indicating an impending earthquake. A strategy for experimentation and application of the device through the implementation of a new European project, uniting the forces and capabilities of the South European countries, is being proposed.

scholarly journals Analysis of the efficiency of earthquake prediction based on the anomalous behavior of ionospheric parameters on the eve of earthquakes in the Kamchatka region

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 03001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim Bogdanov ◽  
Aleksey Pavlov
Keyword(s):  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Anomalous Behavior ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Ionospheric Disturbances ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Perturbed State ◽  
Kamchatka Region ◽  
Spread F ◽  
Short Term Prediction

A method is presented for short-term prediction of strong earthquakes, in which the precursors are considered the excess of current values of foF2 critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer over the median values in periods of perturbed state of the magnetosphere, the appearance of ionospheric disturbances: K-layer, Es-spread F-spread, the stratification of the F2 layer, Es is the r type. As predicted earthquakes were considered earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 5:0. Assessment of the effectiveness of the forecast was carried out in the spring and autumn periods for 2013–2017 according to the methods of A. A. Gusev and G. M. Molchan. It is shown that the method under consideration has the best prognostic efficiency for seismic events with M ≥ 6:5 magnitude.

scholarly journals Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors

2004 ◽  
Vol 145 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 75-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Keilis-Borok ◽  
P. Shebalin ◽  
A. Gabrielov ◽  
D. Turcotte
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Precursors ◽  
Short Term

scholarly journals Identification of ionospheric earthquake precursors in Kamchatka region based on correlation analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 150-158
Author(s):  
В.В. Богданов ◽  
А.В. Павлов
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Earthquake Precursors ◽  
The Other ◽  
Concentration Change ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Ionospheric Variability ◽  
Kamchatka Region ◽  
Critical Frequency Fof2

Сейсмическая активность является одним из источников изменчивости ионосферы. В данной работе на основе методики [1] исследовано изменение концентрации электронов в ионосфере, предшествующее наступлению сильных землетрясений с M ≥ 6.0 в Камчатском регионе. Данная методика основана на вычислении коэффициента корреляции между значениями критической частоты foF2 двух ионосферных станций, одна из которых расположена внутри зоны подготовки землетрясения, а другая – за ее пределами. Рассмотрены данные, полученные на двух станциях PETROPAVLOVSK (PK553) и EARECKSON (EA653) за период 01.09.2018–30.04.2021 гг. Статистический анализ критических частот foF2 показал, что для 6 из 8 землетрясений с M ≥ 6.0, произошедших на глубинах до 100 км и эпицентральных расстояниях до 500 км от расположения PK553, за 1–12 суток до их наступления предшествовало заметное уменьшение коэффициента корреляции. Seismic activity is one of the sources of ionospheric variability. In this work, we investigate electron concentration change in the ionosphere, preceding the onset of strong earthquakes with M ≥ 6.0 in Kamchatka region. The research technique is based on calculating the correlation coefficient between the critical frequency foF2 values at two ionospheric stations. One of them is located inside the earthquake preparation zone, and the other is outside it. The data obtained at two stations PETROPAVLOVSK (PK553) and EARECKSON (EA653) for the period 01.09.2018–30.04.2021 are considered. Statistical analysis of the critical frequencies foF2 showed that a noticeable decrease in the correlation coefficient was observed 1–7 days before the earthquakes for 6 out of 8 events with M ≥ 6.0 that occurred at depths of up to 100 km and epicentral distances of up to 500 km from the PK553 location.

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