Identification of ionospheric earthquake precursors in Kamchatka region based on correlation analysis

Сейсмическая активность является одним из источников изменчивости ионосферы. В данной работе на основе методики [1] исследовано изменение концентрации электронов в ионосфере, предшествующее наступлению сильных землетрясений с M ≥ 6.0 в Камчатском регионе. Данная методика основана на вычислении коэффициента корреляции между значениями критической частоты foF2 двух ионосферных станций, одна из которых расположена внутри зоны подготовки землетрясения, а другая – за ее пределами. Рассмотрены данные, полученные на двух станциях PETROPAVLOVSK (PK553) и EARECKSON (EA653) за период 01.09.2018–30.04.2021 гг. Статистический анализ критических частот foF2 показал, что для 6 из 8 землетрясений с M ≥ 6.0, произошедших на глубинах до 100 км и эпицентральных расстояниях до 500 км от расположения PK553, за 1–12 суток до их наступления предшествовало заметное уменьшение коэффициента корреляции. Seismic activity is one of the sources of ionospheric variability. In this work, we investigate electron concentration change in the ionosphere, preceding the onset of strong earthquakes with M ≥ 6.0 in Kamchatka region. The research technique is based on calculating the correlation coefficient between the critical frequency foF2 values at two ionospheric stations. One of them is located inside the earthquake preparation zone, and the other is outside it. The data obtained at two stations PETROPAVLOVSK (PK553) and EARECKSON (EA653) for the period 01.09.2018–30.04.2021 are considered. Statistical analysis of the critical frequencies foF2 showed that a noticeable decrease in the correlation coefficient was observed 1–7 days before the earthquakes for 6 out of 8 events with M ≥ 6.0 that occurred at depths of up to 100 km and epicentral distances of up to 500 km from the PK553 location.

New opportunities for identification of precursors of sea earthquakes

In many publications, as well as in media statements, prominent foreign and Bulgarian seismologists admit that seismology still does not have reliable methods and technical means for the identification of earthquake precursors in marine conditions (short-term forecast). Several facts, circumstances, and considerations are presented, motivating the need to immediately start experimental research in this area. A Bulgarian patent of a device for capturing underwater gas sources is offered for transmitting characteristics of the underwater gas source to a receiving device on land, indicating an impending earthquake. A strategy for experimentation and application of the device through the implementation of a new European project, uniting the forces and capabilities of the South European countries, is being proposed.

A Retrospective Analysis of b-Value Changes Preceding Strong Earthquakes

Earthquake precursors have long been sought as a means to predict earthquakes with very limited success. Recently, it has been suggested that a decrease in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value after a magnitude 6 earthquake is predictive of an imminent mainshock of larger magnitude, and a three-level traffic-light system has been proposed. However, this method is dependent on parameters that must be chosen by an expert. We systematically explore the parameter space to find an optimal set of parameters based on the Matthews correlation coefficient. For each parameter combination, we analyze the temporal changes in the frequency–magnitude distribution for every M ≥ 6 earthquake sequence in the U.S. Geological Survey Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog for western North America. We then consider smaller events, those with a foreshock magnitude as small as 5, and repeat the analysis to assess its performance for events that modify stresses over smaller spatial regions. We analyze 25 M ≥ 6 events and 88 M 5–6 events. We find that no perfect parameter combination exists. Although the method generates correct retrodictions for some M 5 events, the predictions are dependent on the retrospectively selected parameters. About 80%–95% of magnitude 5–6 events have too little data to generate a result. Predictions are time dependent and have large uncertainties. Without a precise definition of precursory b-value changes, this and similar prediction schemes are incompatible with the IASPEI criteria for evaluating earthquake precursors. If limitations on measuring precursory changes in seismicity and relating them to the state of stress in the crust can be overcome, real-time forecasting of mainshocks could reduce the loss of lives.

Network of Radon Gas Concentration Monitoring of Research and Development Centre – BMKG for Earthquake Precursor Research in Indonesia

The geographical position of Indonesia, which is flanked by several subduction zones and the presence of active faults in the sea and land make Indonesian territory prone to earthquakes and tsunamis which can result in many deaths and damaged. There are several efforts we can do to minimize the occurrence of earthquakes, including developing earthquake resistant buildings, increasing the ability/capacity of the community, and predicting earthquakes or better known as earthquake precursors. The BMKG Research Centre began conducting research on earthquake prediction using several methods, including the Radon monitoring method. Monitoring of Radon gas concentrations for earthquake precursors has several advantages, including the presence of radioactive gas which is abundant in ground water that has a half-life of 3.2 days. Radon is the result of decay of uranium 278U which is abundant in the earth’s crust rock so that when rock friction occurs, the Radon gas can be detached. Based on the results of Radon monitoring at Tadulako and Palolo stations - Southeast Sulawesi province, there was a change in the pattern of radon gas concentration and water level rising up and down drastically and a gradual decrease in ground water temperature before the earthquake on 28 September 2018. In addition to Central Sulawesi, since 2012 the Centre for Research and Development of BMKG has been conducting research to monitor radon gas concentrations in the DI Yogyakarta region precisely in Piyungan and Pundong districts with the aim of monitoring radon gas concentrations in the Opak fault. In 2021, the BMKG Research and Development Centre added a new radon gas monitoring network in the active fault areas of Cimandiri and Lembang in the West Java province. There are 1 station in the Cimandiri fault segment and 2 stations in the Lembang fault section. It is hoped that in the future the results of monitoring can reduce the impact caused by the earthquake disaster in Indonesia.

ON OBSERVATION OF ULF ELECTROMAGNETIC SIGNALS FROM REMOTE EARTHQUAKES AND DISTRIBUTION OF THEIR SOURCES ON THE EARTH’S SURFACE

During long-term observations, the Borok and College Geophysical Observatories have registered ultralow-frequency (ULF) electromagnetic signals from remote earthquakes. We have analysed the characteristics of such signals that occur several minutes before a seismic event. Our analysis shows that the dynamic spectra of the signals from earthquakes that occurred in different regions are similar, although the earthquakes differ in magnitude and focal depth. We investigate and discuss daily and seasonal probabilities for the occurrence of ULF electromagnetic pulses. Attention is given to the uneven distribution of their sources (i.e. earthquakes) on the earth’s surface. Our study shows that the ULF electromagnetic signals are clustered in separate zones and cells. When mapped, these clusters mark seismic electromagnetically active regions. In the northern hemisphere, a maximum cluster is found at latitudes 30–45°. In the longitudinal direction, two maximum clusters are located in the western sector. They are considered as the major and additional peaks (latitudes 120–150° and 0–30°, respectively). Examples are given to illustrate earthquake precursors in various regions. Based on the analysis results, we conclude that the occurrence of ULF electromagnetic pulses before earthquakes is universal. These pulses need to be investigated in a more detail to clarify if an upcoming earthquake is detectable from such signals a few minutes before its occurrence, and whether it is possible, in principle, to use this information for safety alerts before seismic shaking arrives.

Inhomogeneous precursor characteristics of rock with prefabricated cracks before fracture and its implication for earthquake monitoring

Earthquake precursors and earthquake monitoring are always important in the earthquake research field, even if there is still debate about the existence of earthquake precursors. However, it is extremely difficult to observe the seismogenic environment of earthquakes directly. Laboratory rupture experiment is a useful technique to simulate and gain an insight into the complex mechanisms of earthquakes. Five marble samples with prefabricated cracks are used for uniaxial loading experiments to investigate whether there is a precursory signal before rock fracture and to simulate the rupture process of strike-slip fault. The existence of a precursory signal is confirmed by the coefficient of variation (CV) results, from which we can see two patterns which are known as seismicity acceleration and quiescence before an earthquake. Moreover, these CV findings are applied to determine the locations of large deformation sampling points on the rock surface at different loading stages. Similar results are obtained when we consider actual seismicity at the northern end of the San Andreas Fault in California, which provides crucial evidence to prove the existence of precursor characteristics. In this case, three kinds of seismic monitoring models are designed to find out how to monitor these characteristics more effectively.

Looking for Earthquake Precursors From Space: A Critical Review

Starting from late seventies, many observations have been reported about observations in space of signals reconciled with earthquakes and claimed as possible preseismic measurements. The detected parameters range from electromagnetic field components (in a large band of frequencies) to plasmas parameters; from particles detection to thermal anomalies; etc. Up to the DEMETER mission, the analyses have been carried out on datasets gathered by not devoted satellites. Even beyond the results obtained, the DEMETER mission has constituted a milestone for space-based investigations of seismo-associated phenomena drawing a baseline for next missions with respect instruments, observational strategy and measurements uncertainty. Nowadays, the CSES-01 satellite – developed within a sino-italian collaboration with the participation also of Austrian Institutes – represents the most advanced mission for investigating near-Earth electromagnetic environment aimed at extending the observation of earthquake precursors to a long time series. The benefit of the mission is even higher by considering that CSES-01 is the first of a program of several LEO small satellites, the second of which will be launched on 2023 with the same instruments and orbit of CSES-01, but with a shift of half of an orbit in order to monitor each trace twice per orbit. The article gives a short survey of space-based observations of preseismic phenomena from the early studies up to the more recent ones, critically reviewing results, hypotheses and trends in this research field. The supposed physical processes proposed to explain the observations are still unable to explain the large variety of the phenomenology, the statistical significance of the results are highly debated, and more in general a common consensus is still missing. Anyway, the investigation of the seismo-associated phenomena from space is a challenge for near future Earth observation.