scholarly journals Principles of organizing earthquake forecasting based on multiparameter sensor-WEB monitoring data

2020 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 03004
Author(s):  
Sergey Pulinets ◽  
Dimitar Ouzounov ◽  
Dmitry Davidenko ◽  
Pavel Budnikov
Keyword(s):  
Data Processing ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Kamchatka Region ◽  
Multiparameter Monitoring ◽  
Intelligent Data Processing ◽  
Processing Service

The paper describes an approach that allows, basing on the data of multiparameter monitoring of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters and using ground-based and satellite measurements, to select from the data stream a time interval indicating the beginning of the final stage of earthquake preparation, and finally using intelligent data processing to carry out a short-term forecast for a time interval of 2 weeks to 1 day before the main shock. Based on the physical model of the lithosphere-atmospheric-ionospheric coupling, the precursors are selected, the ensemble of which is observed only during the precursory periods, and their identification is based on morphological features determined by the physical mechanism of their generation, and not on amplitude selection based on statistical data processing. Basing on the developed maquette of the automatic processing service, the possibility of real-time monitoring of the situation in a seismically active region will be demonstrated using the territory of the Kamchatka region and the Kuril Islands.

scholarly journals Principal Possibility of the Successful Nowcast and Short-Term Forecast in the Middle Atmosphere Based on the Observed UV Irradiance

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
T. Egorova ◽  
E. Rozanov ◽  
A. V. Shapiro ◽  
W. Schmutz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Atmospheric Species ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Uv Irradiance ◽  
Solar Uv ◽  
Solar Uv Irradiance

We have applied chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL to simulate the distribution of the temperature and gas species in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. As an input for the simulation, we employ daily spectral solar UV irradiance measured by SUSIM instrument onboard UARS satellite in January 1992. We have carried out an ensemble of nine 1-month long simulations using slightly different initial states of the atmosphere. We have compared the obtained time evolution of the simulated species and temperature with available satellite measurements. The obtained results allowed us to define the areas where the nowcast and short-term forecast of the atmospheric species with CCM SOCOL could be successful.

Integration of geological and seismological data in earthquakes occurrence models for Italy: towards a unified model for different forecast perspectives

2019 ◽  
Vol 219 (3) ◽  
pp. 2148-2164
Author(s):  
A M Lombardi
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Background Rate ◽  
Etas Model ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Earthquake Predictability ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Different Types

SUMMARY The operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is a procedure aimed at informing communities on how seismic hazard changes with time. This can help them live with seismicity and mitigate risk of destructive earthquakes. A successful short-term prediction scheme is not yet produced, but the search for it should not be abandoned. This requires more research on seismogenetic processes and, specifically, inclusion of any information about earthquakes in models, to improve forecast of future events, at any spatio-temporal-magnitude scale. The short- and long-term forecast perspectives of earthquake occurrence followed, up to now, separate paths, involving different data and peculiar models. But actually they are not so different and have common features, being parts of the same physical process. Research on earthquake predictability can help to search for a common path in different forecast perspectives. This study aims to improve the modelling of long-term features of seismicity inside the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, largely used for short-term forecast and OEF procedures. Specifically, a more comprehensive estimation of background seismicity rate inside the ETAS model is attempted, by merging different types of data (seismological instrumental, historical, geological), such that information on faults and on long-term seismicity integrates instrumental data, on which the ETAS models are generally set up. The main finding is that long-term historical seismicity and geological fault data improve the pseudo-prospective forecasts of independent seismicity. The study is divided in three parts. The first consists in models formulation and parameter estimation on recent seismicity of Italy. Specifically, two versions of ETAS model are compared: a ‘standard’, previously published, formulation, only based on instrumental seismicity, and a new version, integrating different types of data for background seismicity estimation. Secondly, a pseudo-prospective test is performed on independent seismicity, both to test the reliability of formulated models and to compare them, in order to identify the best version. Finally, a prospective forecast is made, to point out differences and similarities in predicting future seismicity between two models. This study must be considered in the context of its limitations; anyway, it proves, beyond argument, the usefulness of a more sophisticated estimation of background rate, inside short-term modelling of earthquakes.

scholarly journals The Seamless Solar Radiation (SESORA) Forecast for Solar Surface Irradiance—Method and Validation

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 2576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Urbich ◽  
Jörg Bendix ◽  
Richard Müller
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Surface ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Surface Irradiance ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Absolute Bias ◽  
Global Irradiation ◽  
Spectrally Resolved

Due to the integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid, the importance of weather and power forecasts grows constantly. This paper describes the implementation of a short-term forecast of solar surface irradiance named SESORA (seamless solar radiation). It is based on the the optical flow of effective cloud albedo and available for Germany and parts of Europe. After the clouds are shifted by applying cloud motion vectors, solar radiation is calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW (Spectrally Resolved Mesoscale Atmospheric Global Irradiance Code), which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to the high spatial and temporal resolution of satellite measurements, solar radiation can be forecasted from 15 min up to 4 h or more with a spatial resolution of 0.05 ∘ . An extensive validation of this short-term forecast is presented in this study containing two different validations based on either area or stations. The results are very promising as the mean RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of this study equals 59 W/m 2 (absolute bias = 42 W/m 2 ) after 15 min, reaches its maximum of 142 W/m 2 (absolute bias = 97 W/m 2 ) after 165 min, and slowly decreases after that due to the setting of the sun. After a brief description of the method itself and the method of the validation the results will be presented and discussed.

scholarly journals APPLICATION OF MARKOV CHAINS TO THE ANALYSIS OF BLAST FURNACE OPERATION EFFICIENCY

2018 ◽  
Vol 61 (8) ◽  
pp. 649-656
Author(s):  
S. K. Sibagatullin ◽  
A. S. Kharchenko ◽  
L. D. Devyatchenko
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Blast Furnace ◽  
Coke Consumption ◽  
Efficiency Index ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Efficient Operation ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Markov Chain Method ◽  
Discrete States

The article presents the results of modeling in a dynamic format of one of the most important parameters of any research object – the efficiency of its work. As the object of investigation, a blast furnace with a volume of 2014 m3 was chosen. The main parameters of the efficiency of this object are traditionally used daily productivity and specific consumption of coke; these two parameters were generalized in this paper. In this case, various algebraic signs of the influence of these parameters were taken into account in the generalized efficiency index. Taking into account the variation of each of these parameters at 3 levels, the number of levels of the generalized efficiency index was determined as 32 = 9, therefore it was rational to take a 9-point scale with the measuring scale of profitability from the efficient operation of the blast furnace. The two-dimensional array of primary data of the volume N = 177 was transformed into a 9×9 transitional matrix for processing of random transitions of the efficiency index from one state to another by the Markov chain method with discrete states and time. The set of parameters of the random process is calculated: for the long-term forecast – the stationary vector of state probabilities, the average time of recurrence (reversal) for each efficiency state, the evaluation of the blast furnace efficiency in points; for a short-term forecast – the first time of transition from each state to any other state, the step number for a “burst” of probability for each reliable state at the initial moment of time, and the components of the efficiency index are obtained. It was established that the average level of the analyzed efficiency of the blast furnace (daily output 3702 tons and specific coke consumption 470 kg/ton) is achieved mainly due to short-term transitions of low-efficiency states to high-efficiency states and vice versa. The transfer of the system to more efficient and prolonged conditions is possible, and as practice has shown on the same blast furnace after repair works to eliminate the distortion of the furnace profile, the daily productivity has increased to 5048 tons with a specific coke consumption of 445 kg/t, but the structure of the transition matrix and the calculated indicators of the Markov chain have fundamentally changed in the direction of increasing the probabilities of stay and transitions of the system in more efficient states. The use of the Markov chain method with discrete states and time makes it possible to estimate the probable value of the change in the parameters of the operation of a blast furnace in a given time interval with constant levels of parameters characterizing the conditions of its operation.

scholarly journals Response to Zöller et al.'s critique on “Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm‐animal monitoring”

Ethology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 127 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-308
Author(s):  
Martin Wikelski ◽  
Uschi Mueller ◽  
Paola Scocco ◽  
Andrea Catorci ◽  
Lev V. Desinov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Farm Animal ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Animal Monitoring

scholarly journals Time Interval to Biochemical Failure as a Surrogate End Point in Locally Advanced Prostate Cancer: Analysis of Randomized Trial NRG/RTOG 9202

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
James J. Dignam ◽  
Daniel A. Hamstra ◽  
Herbert Lepor ◽  
David Grignon ◽  
Harmar Brereton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Randomized Trial ◽  
Locally Advanced ◽  
Biochemical Failure ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
End Points ◽  
End Point

Background In prostate cancer, end points that reliably portend prognosis and treatment benefit (surrogate end points) can accelerate therapy development. Although surrogate end point candidates have been evaluated in the context of radiotherapy and short-term androgen deprivation (AD), potential surrogates under long-term (24 month) AD, a proven therapy in high-risk localized disease, have not been investigated. Materials and Methods In the NRG/RTOG 9202 randomized trial (N = 1,520) of short-term AD (4 months) versus long-term AD (LTAD; 28 months), the time interval free of biochemical failure (IBF) was evaluated in relation to clinical end points of prostate cancer–specific survival (PCSS) and overall survival (OS). Survival modeling and landmark analysis methods were applied to evaluate LTAD benefit on IBF and clinical end points, association between IBF and clinical end points, and the mediating effect of IBF on LTAD clinical end point benefits. Results LTAD was superior to short-term AD for both biochemical failure (BF) and the clinical end points. Men remaining free of BF for 3 years had relative risk reductions of 39% for OS and 73% for PCSS. Accounting for 3-year IBF status reduced the LTAD OS benefit from 12% (hazard ratio [HR], 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.98) to 6% (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.07). For PCSS, the LTAD benefit was reduced from 30% (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.82) to 6% (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.22). Among men with BF, by 3 years, 50% of subsequent deaths were attributed to prostate cancer, compared with 19% among men free of BF through 3 years. Conclusion The IBF satisfied surrogacy criteria and identified the benefit of LTAD on disease-specific survival and OS. The IBF may serve as a valid end point in clinical trials and may also aid in risk monitoring after initial treatment.

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