scholarly journals Flood forecasting using a coupled hydrological and hydraulic model (based on FVM) and highresolution meteorological model

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 06028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Sanz-Ramos ◽  
Arnau Amengual ◽  
Ernest Bladé ◽  
Romu Romero ◽  
Hélène Roux
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

A forecasting systems based on the coupling of meteorological, hydrologic, hydraulic and risk models is used to minimize the risks associated to water scarcity and flooding. The fulfilment of such complex forecasting chains can allow obtaining information of the most plausible scenarios of water and risk management up to 96 hours ahead. In the present work, flood forecasting was carried out for different events in the upper La Muga basin (including the reservoir), within the European project “Flood Risk Assessment and Management in the Pyrenees” (http://pgriepm. eu/). The main purpose of the project was to develop a method to optimize the management of flood scenarios in order to minimize the flood risk while maximizing the water resources. The good fit of all the models, obtaining the forecasting rainfall and converting the overland flow in water levels in the reservoir, can give tools and important information to the authorities or dam managers for suitable management during the extreme rainfall and flood events.

scholarly journals Charting unknown waters-On the role of surprise in flood risk assessment and management

2015 ◽  
Vol 51 (8) ◽  
pp. 6399-6416 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Merz ◽  
S. Vorogushyn ◽  
U. Lall ◽  
A. Viglione ◽  
G. Blöschl
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

A critical analysis of French flood risk governance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Kougkoulos ◽  
Myriam Merad ◽  
Simon Cook ◽  
Ioannis Andredakis
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Risk Prevention ◽  
Risk Governance ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Local Inhabitant ◽  
Do So

<p>France experiences catastrophic floods on a yearly basis, with significant societal impacts. In this paper, we critically evaluate the French Flood Risk Governance (FRG) system with the aim of identifying any shortcoming and, thereby, to suggest improvements. To do so, we employ a historical assessment of catastrophic past flood events in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA) region and perform Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT)-analysis. Our evaluation shows that despite persistent government efforts, the impacts of flood events in the region do not appear to have lessened over time. Identical losses in the same locations (e.g. Riou de l’Argentière watershed) can be observed after repetitive catastrophic events (e.g. 2015, 2019) triggering local inhabitant protests. We argue that the French FRG system can benefit from the following improvements: a) regular updates of the risk prevention plans and tools; b) the adoption of a Build Back Better logic instead of promoting the reconstruction of damaged elements in the same locations; c) taking into account undeclared damages into flood risk models (and not only those declared to flood insurance); d) increased communication between the actors of the different steps of each cycle (prepare, control, organise etc.); e) increased communication between three main elements of the cycle (risk prevention, emergency management and disaster recovery); f) an approach that extends the risk analysis outside the borders of the drainage basin (to be used in combination with the current basin risk models); and g) increased participation in FRG from local population. We also briefly discuss the use operational research methods for the optimisation of the French FRG.</p>

Reconstructing a hydraulic model for historic flood levels in the city of Bath, United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioanna Stamataki ◽  
Thomas Kjeldsen
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Hydraulic Model ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Roughness Coefficient ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Historical Evidence ◽  
The City

<p>Assessing the risk of future flood events and the implications for flood risk in cities is an economically and socially costly problem. In this research, we assess the utility of documentary evidence of past flood events for contemporary flood risk assessments to reduce the uncertainty in flood frequency estimation due to the interpolation from short annual maximum series (AMS) records.</p><p>The historical city of Bath, United Kingdom, developed in close relation to the River Avon, and evidence of flooding in the city of Bath can be traced back to Roman occupation. For this research a particularly rich record of historical evidence was chosen occurring from the 19<sup>th</sup> century onwards with flood marks on buildings through-out the city as well as documentary evidence in contemporary newspapers and technical reports. The earliest flood mark found in the city of Bath dates to 1823 with 15 more extreme floods after that marked as well. The extensive flooding in 1947 initiated work on what eventually became the present-day Bath flood protection scheme (BFS) which was implemented after the 1960 catalyst flood event.</p><p>Using an existing one-dimensional hydraulic model representing the current hydraulic system of the River Avon in Bath, a historical survey of how the river and its management has changed over time was conducted. The model was developed using historical evidence (e.g. maps, flood marks, photographs, newspaper articles etc), surveyed river cross sections, recorded and design hydrographs from National datasets.</p><p>The 1960 flood is reconstructed numerically using all available data, from flood marks to old surveyed river cross sections.  The resulting hydraulic model is used to investigate the effect of the Bath Flood Defence Scheme. Sensitivity studies with different values for the roughness coefficient are also presented in order to assess the uncertainty on water levels during extreme events. Finally, the numerically reconstructed historical peak flood discharge is compared with the results obtained using a simple Manning equation approach to assess the two methods. This paper demonstrates how hydraulic modelling can be applied to historical data and offers considerable potential to further investigations in the improvement of design flood flows.</p>

Hydrological response of the Pampanga River Basin in the Philippines to intense tropical cyclone rainfall

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rhonalyn V. Macalalad ◽  
Roy A. Badilla ◽  
Olivia C. Cabrera ◽  
Gerry Bagtasa
Keyword(s):  
Critical Level ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Onset Time ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Accumulated Rainfall

AbstractThe Philippines is frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) and understanding the flood response of the PRB from TC-induced rain is needed in effective disaster risk management. As large uncertainties remain in TC rain forecasting, we propose a simple checklist method for flood forecasting of the PRB which depends on the general TC track, season, and accumulated rainfall. To this end, flood events were selected based on the alert, alarm, and critical river height levels established by the PhilippineAtmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical ServicesAdministration (PAGASA). Results show that all flood events in the PRB were induced by TCs. All intense TCs that directly traversed the PRB resulted in critical level floods. These TCs also had the shortest flood onset of 7-27 hours from alert to critical level. Flooding from distant landfalling TCs, on the other hand, are dependent on season. TCs traversing north (south) of the PRB induced flooding only during the southwest (northeast) monsoon season. These TCs can raise water levels from alert to critical in 11 to 48 hours. Remote precipitation from non-landfalling TCs can also induce critical level flooding but with a longer onset time of 59 hours. These results indicate that a simple checklist method can serve as a useful tool for flood forecasting in regions with limited data and forecasting resources.

scholarly journals Flood risk assessment of river “Kelani Ganga” exceeding its threshold water level

2020 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Charith Dushyantha ◽  
Irina Ptuhina
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Suitable Model ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Maximum Water

Flood risk assessment curves were developed for a flood risk assessment carried out in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Annual maximum water levels at three gauging stations in Kelani Ganga were used as data to prepare the flood risk assessment. Information sources include the Ministry of Disaster Management, Irrigation department and Department of Metrology. Current approaches to risk assessment function development were improved by using the extreme value theory. The most suitable model from the extreme value theory was defined by the behaviour of the probabilistic density function. The probability of a threshold water level exceeding in a given year can be predicted by using the developed model. According to the results of the flood risk assessment at the three gauging stations along river Kelani Ganga, the Hanwella station is at an 89.3% high risk of inundating the area with the water level reaching up to 9.6m in 10 years of time. These results can be used to develop hazard maps for these areas as one of the criteria that must be taken into consideration when choosing the optimal site for construction.

scholarly journals Floods in Provence-Alpes-Côte D'azur and Lessons for French Flood Risk Governance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Kougkoulos ◽  
Myriam Merad ◽  
Simon J. Cook ◽  
Ioannis Andredakis
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Risk Prevention ◽  
Risk Governance ◽  
Flood Insurance ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Local Inhabitant

Abstract France experiences catastrophic floods on a yearly basis, with significant societal impacts. In this paper, we employ a historical assessment of catastrophic past flood events in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA) region and perform Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT)-analysis to evaluate some aspects of the French Flood Risk Governance (FRG) system and suggest improvements. Our evaluation shows that despite persistent government efforts, the impacts of flood events in the region do not appear to have lessened over time. Identical losses in the same locations (e.g. Riou de l’Argentière watershed) can be observed after repetitive catastrophic events (e.g. 2015, 2019) triggering local inhabitant protests. To avoid future disasters, we suggest that the French FRG should benefit from the following improvements: a) regular updates of the risk prevention plans and tools; b) the adoption of a Build Back Better logic instead of promoting the reconstruction of damaged elements in the same locations; c) taking into account undeclared damages into flood risk models (and not only those declared to flood insurance); d) increased communication between the actors of the different steps of each cycle (prepare, control, organise etc.); e) increased communication between three main elements of the cycle (risk prevention, emergency management and disaster recovery); f) an approach that extends the risk analysis outside the borders of the drainage basin (to be used in combination with the current basin risk models); and g) increased participation in FRG from local population. We also briefly discuss the use operational research methods for the optimisation of the French FRG.

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