Prediction Models — Development, Evaluation, and Clinical Application

2020 ◽  
Vol 382 (17) ◽  
pp. 1583-1586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Pencina ◽  
Benjamin A. Goldstein ◽  
Ralph B. D’Agostino
2005 ◽  
Vol 97 (10) ◽  
pp. 715-723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew N. Freedman ◽  
Daniela Seminara ◽  
Mitchell H. Gail ◽  
Patricia Hartge ◽  
Graham A. Colditz ◽  
...  

JAMIA Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianqin He ◽  
Yong Hu ◽  
Xiangzhou Zhang ◽  
Lijuan Wu ◽  
Lemuel R Waitman ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives Acute kidney injury (AKI) in hospitalized patients puts them at much higher risk for developing future health problems such as chronic kidney disease, stroke, and heart disease. Accurate AKI prediction would allow timely prevention and intervention. However, current AKI prediction researches pay less attention to model building strategies that meet complex clinical application scenario. This study aims to build and evaluate AKI prediction models from multiple perspectives that reflect different clinical applications. Materials and Methods A retrospective cohort of 76 957 encounters and relevant clinical variables were extracted from a tertiary care, academic hospital electronic medical record (EMR) system between November 2007 and December 2016. Five machine learning methods were used to build prediction models. Prediction tasks from 4 clinical perspectives with different modeling and evaluation strategies were designed to build and evaluate the models. Results Experimental analysis of the AKI prediction models built from 4 different clinical perspectives suggest a realistic prediction performance in cross-validated area under the curve ranging from 0.720 to 0.764. Discussion Results show that models built at admission is effective for predicting AKI events in the next day; models built using data with a fixed lead time to AKI onset is still effective in the dynamic clinical application scenario in which each patient’s lead time to AKI onset is different. Conclusion To our best knowledge, this is the first systematic study to explore multiple clinical perspectives in building predictive models for AKI in the general inpatient population to reflect real performance in clinical application.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Han ◽  
Jianjun Tan ◽  
Jingrui Men ◽  
Chunhua Li ◽  
Xiaoyi Zhang

Background: HIV-1 protease inhibitor (PIs) is a good choice of ADIS patients. Nevertheless, for PIs, there are several bugs in clinical application, like drug resistance, the large dose, the high costs and so on, among which, the poor pharmacokinetics property is one of the important reasons that leads to the failure of its clinical application. Objective: We aimed to build computational models for studying the relationship between PIs structure and its pharmacological activities. Method: We collected experimental values of koff/Ki and structures of 50 PIs through a careful literature and database search. Quantitative structure activity/pharmacokinetics relationship (QSAR/QSPR) models were constructed by support vector machine (SVM), partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and back-propagation neural network (BPNN). Results: For QSAR models, SVM, PLSR and BPNN all generated reliable prediction models with the r2 of 0.688, 0.768 and 0.787, respectively, and "r" _"pred" ^"2" of 0.748, 0.696 and 0.640, respectively. For QSPR models, the optimum models of SVM, PLSR and BPNN got the r2 of 0.952, 0.869 and 0.960, respectively, and the "r" _"pred" ^"2" of 0.852, 0.628 and 0.814, respectively. Conclusion: Among these three modelling methods, SVM showed superior ability to PLSR and BPNN both in QSAR/QSPR modelling of PIs, thus, we suspected that SVM was more suitable for predicting activities of PIs. In addition, 3D-MoRSE descriptors may have a tight relationship with the Ki values of PIs, and the GETAWAY descriptors have significant influence for both koff and Ki in PLSR equations.


2022 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne A. H. de Hond ◽  
Artuur M. Leeuwenberg ◽  
Lotty Hooft ◽  
Ilse M. J. Kant ◽  
Steven W. J. Nijman ◽  
...  

AbstractWhile the opportunities of ML and AI in healthcare are promising, the growth of complex data-driven prediction models requires careful quality and applicability assessment before they are applied and disseminated in daily practice. This scoping review aimed to identify actionable guidance for those closely involved in AI-based prediction model (AIPM) development, evaluation and implementation including software engineers, data scientists, and healthcare professionals and to identify potential gaps in this guidance. We performed a scoping review of the relevant literature providing guidance or quality criteria regarding the development, evaluation, and implementation of AIPMs using a comprehensive multi-stage screening strategy. PubMed, Web of Science, and the ACM Digital Library were searched, and AI experts were consulted. Topics were extracted from the identified literature and summarized across the six phases at the core of this review: (1) data preparation, (2) AIPM development, (3) AIPM validation, (4) software development, (5) AIPM impact assessment, and (6) AIPM implementation into daily healthcare practice. From 2683 unique hits, 72 relevant guidance documents were identified. Substantial guidance was found for data preparation, AIPM development and AIPM validation (phases 1–3), while later phases clearly have received less attention (software development, impact assessment and implementation) in the scientific literature. The six phases of the AIPM development, evaluation and implementation cycle provide a framework for responsible introduction of AI-based prediction models in healthcare. Additional domain and technology specific research may be necessary and more practical experience with implementing AIPMs is needed to support further guidance.


Author(s):  
Malou E. Gelderblom ◽  
Kelly Y.R. Stevens ◽  
Saskia Houterman ◽  
Steven Weyers ◽  
Benedictus C. Schoot

JAMA ◽  
1966 ◽  
Vol 195 (3) ◽  
pp. 161-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. L. Segal

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document