Abstract. Thaw and release of permafrost carbon (C) due to climate change is likely to offset increased vegetation C uptake in Northern High Latitude (NHL) terrestrial ecosystems. Models project that this permafrost C feedback may act as a slow leak, in which case detection and attribution of the feedback may be difficult. The formation of talik, a sub-surface layer of perennially thawed soil, can accelerate permafrost degradation and soil respiration, ultimately shifting the C balance of permafrost affected ecosystems from long-term C sinks to long-term C sources. It is imperative to understand and characterize mechanistic links between talik, permafrost thaw, and respiration of deep soil C to detect and quantify the permafrost C feedback. Here, we use the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, a permafrost and biogeochemistry model, in comparison to long term deep borehole data along North American and Siberian transects, to investigate thaw driven C sources in NHL (> 55° N) from 2000–2300. Widespread talik at depth IS projected across most of the NHL permafrost region (14 million km2) by 2300, correlated to increased cold season warming, earlier spring thaw, and growing active layers. Talik formation peaks in the 2050s in warm permafrost regions in the sub-Arctic. Comparison to borehole data suggests talik formation may even occur sooner. Accelerated decomposition of deep soil C following talik onset shifts the surface balance of photosynthetic uptake and litter respiration into long-term C sources across 3.2 million km2 of permafrost. Talik driven sources occur predominantly in warm permafrost, but sink-to-source transition dates are delayed by decades to centuries due to high ecosystem productivity. In contrast, most of the cold permafrost region in the northern Arctic (3 million km2) shifts to a net source by the end of the 21st century in the absence of talik due to the high decomposition rates of shallow, young C in organic rich soils coupled with low productivity. Our results provide important clues signaling imminent talik onset and C source transition including: (1) late cold season (Jan–Feb) soil warming at depth (~ 2 m), (2) increasing cold season emissions (Nov–Apr), (3) enhanced respiration of deep, old C in warm permafrost and young, shallow C in organic rich cold permafrost soils. Our results suggest a mosaic of processes that govern carbon source-to-sink transitions at high latitudes, and emphasize the urgency of monitoring soil thermal profiles, organic C age and content, cold season CO2 emissions, and atmospheric 14CO2 as key indicators of the permafrost C feedback.
Detecting the permafrost carbon feedback: Talik formation and increased cold-season
respiration as precursors to sink-to-source transitions
