Evaluating Simplifications of Subsurface Process Representations for Field-scale Permafrost Hydrology Models

Permafrost degradation within a warming climate poses a significant environmental threat through both the permafrost carbon feedback and damage to human communities and infrastructure. Understanding this threat relies on better understanding and numerical representation of thermo-hydrological permafrost processes, and the subsequent accurate prediction of permafrost dynamics. All models include simplified assumptions, implying a tradeoff between model complexity and prediction accuracy. The main purpose of this work is to investigate this tradeoff when applying the following commonly made assumptions: (1) assuming equal density of ice and liquid water in frozen soil; (2) neglecting the effect of cryosuction in unsaturated freezing soil; and (3) neglecting advective heat transport during soil freezing and thaw. This study designed a set of 62 numerical experiments using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS v1.2) to evaluate the effects of these choices on permafrost hydrological outputs, including both integrated and pointwise quantities. Simulations were conducted under different climate conditions and soil properties from three different sites in both column- and hillslope-scale configurations. Results showed that amongst the three physical assumptions, soil cryosuction is the most crucial yet commonly ignored process. Neglecting cryosuction, on average, can cause 10 % ~ 20 % error in predicting evaporation, 50 % ~ 60 % error in discharge, 10 % ~ 30 % error in thaw depth, and 10 % ~ 30 % error in soil temperature at 1 m beneath surface. The prediction error for subsurface temperature and water saturation is more obvious at hillslope scales due to the presence of lateral flux. By comparison, using equal ice-liquid density has a minor impact on most hydrological variables, but significantly affects soil water saturation with an averaged 5 % ~ 15 % error. Neglecting advective heat transport presents the least error, 5 % or even much lower, in most variables for a general Arctic tundra system, and can decrease the simulation time at hillslope scales by 40 % ~ 80 %. By challenging these commonly made assumptions, this work provides permafrost hydrology modelers important context for better choosing the appropriate process representation for a given modeling experiment.

Permafrost Regions In Transition: Introduction

Russian permafrost regions are unparalleled in extent, history of development, population presence, and the scale of economic activities. This special issue, «Permafrost Regions in Transition», provides a timely opportunity to (a) examine major issues associated with changing permafrost conditions in natural environments and areas of economic development; (b) present insights into new methods of permafrost investigations; and (c) describe new opportunities and risks threatening sustainable development of Arctic populations and industrial centers in Russia. The issue begins with papers focused on methods of permafrost research, followed by papers focused on examining changes in permafrost under natural conditions, and in Arctic settlements. The last two papers examine potential impacts of permafrost degradation on the Russian economy and potential health implications.

Antarctic Permafrost Degassing Revealed By Extensive Soil Gas and Co2 Flux Survey in Taylor Valley

McMurdo Dry Valleys comprise 10% of the ice-free soil surface areas in Antarctica. Permafrost stability plays an important role in C-cycle as it potentially stores considerable quantities of greenhouse gases. While the geomorphology of the Dry Valleys reflects a long history of changing climate conditions, comparison with the rapidly warming Northern polar region suggests that future climate and ecosystems may change more rapidly from permafrost degradation. In Austral summer 2019/2020 a comprehensive sampling of soil gases and CO2 flux measurements was undertaken in the Taylor Valley, with the aims to identify potential presence of soil gases in the active layer. The results obtained show high concentrations of CH4, CO2, He and an increasing CO2 flux rate. We identify the likely source of the gas to be from dissolved gases in deep brine moving from inland (potentially underneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet) to the coast at depth beneath the permafrost layer.

Vulnerability of the Ancient Peat Plateaus in Western Siberia

Based on the data of the plant macrofossil and palynological composition of the peat deposits, the evolution and current state of polygonal peatlands were analyzed at the southern limit of continuous permafrost in the Pur-Taz interfluve. Paleoreconstruction shows that peat accumulation began in the Early Holocene, about 9814 cal. year BP, in the Late Pre-Boreal (PB-2), at a rate of 1 to 1.5 mm year−1. Intensive peat accumulation continued in the Boreal and early Atlantic. The geocryological complex of polygonal peatlands has remained a stable bog system despite the predicted warming and increasing humidity. However, a rather rapid upper permafrost degradation and irreversible changes in the bog systems of polygonal peatlands occur with anthropogenic disturbances, in particular, a change in the natural hydrological regime under construction of linear objects.

Thermokarst Landscape Development Detected by Multiple-Geospatial Data in Churapcha, Eastern Siberia

Thermokarst is a typical process that indicates widespread permafrost degradation in yedoma landscapes. The Lena-Aldan interfluvial area in Central Yakutia in eastern Siberia is now facing extensive landscape changes with surface subsidence due to thermokarst development during the past few decades. To clarify the spatial extent and rate of subsidence, multiple spatial datasets, including GIS and remote sensing observations, were used to analyze the Churapcha rural locality, which has a typical yedoma landscape in Central Yakutia. Land cover classification maps for 1945 and 2009 provide basic information on anthropogenic disturbance to the natural landscape of boreal forest and dry grassland. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) with ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 data revealed activated surface subsidence of 2 cm/yr in the disturbed area, comprising mainly abandoned agricultural fields. Remote sensing with an unmanned aerial system also provided high-resolution information on polygonal relief formed by thermokarst development at a disused airfield where InSAR analysis exhibited extensive subsidence. It is worth noting that some historically deforested areas have likely recovered to the original landscape without further thermokarst development. Spatial information on historical land-use change is helpful because most areas with thermokarst development correspond to locations where land was used by humans in the past. Going forward, the integrated analysis of geospatial information will be essential for assessing permafrost degradation.

Non-Equilibrium Uranium as an Indicator of Global Climate Variations—The World Ocean and Large Lakes

In natural water, as a rule, there is a violation of radioactive equilibrium in the chain 238U … → 234U → 230Th →. Groundwater usually has a 234U/238U ratio in the range of 0.8–3.0 (by activity). However, in some regions, the 234U/238U ratio reaches >10 and up to 50. Ultrahigh excesses of 234U can be explained by climatic variations. During a cold period, minerals accumulate 234U as a normal component of the radioactive chain, and after the melting of permafrost, it is lost from the mineral lattice faster than 238U due to its higher geochemical mobility. This hypothesis was tested using data on the isotopic composition of uranium in the chemo- and bio-genic formations of the World Ocean and large lakes, which are reservoirs that accumulate continental runoff. The World Ocean has the most significant 234U enrichments in the polar and inland seas during periods of climatic warming in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. In the bottom sediments of Lake Baikal, the 234U/238U ratio also increases during warm periods and significantly exceeds the 234U excess of the World Ocean. Furthermore, the 234U/238U ratio in the water of Lake Baikal and its tributaries increases from north to south following a decrease in the area of the continuous permafrost and has a seasonal variation with a maximum 234U/238U ratio in summer. The behavior of 234U in large water reservoirs is consistent with the hypothesis about the decisive influence of permafrost degradation on the anomalies in 234U/238U ratios in groundwater.

The Thermal and Settlement Characteristics of Crushed-Rock Structure Embankments of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway in Permafrost Regions Under Climate Warming

The temperature difference at the top and bottom of the crushed-rock layer can drive the heat convection inside. Based on this mechanism, crushed-rock structures with different forms are widely used in the construction and maintenance of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway as cooling measures in permafrost regions. To explore the stability of different forms of crushed-rock structure embankments under climate warming, the temperature and deformation data of a U-shaped crushed-rock embankment (UCRE) and a crushed-rock revetment embankment (CRRE) are analysed. The variations in temperature indicate that permafrost beneath the natural sites and embankments is degrading but at different rates. The thermal regime of ground under the natural site is only affected by climate warming, while that under embankment is also affected by embankment construction and the cooling effect of the crushed-rock structure. These factors make shallow permafrost degradation beneath the embankments slower than that beneath the natural sites and deep permafrost degradation faster than that beneath the natural sites. Moreover, the convection occurring in the crushed-rock base layer during the cold season makes the degradation of permafrost beneath the UCRE slower than that in the CRRE. The faster degradation of permafrost causes the accumulated deformation of the CRRE to be far greater than that of the UCRE, which may exceed the allowable value of the design code. The analysis shows that the stability of the UCRE meets the engineering requirements and the CRRE needs to be strengthened in warm and ice-rich permafrost regions under climate warming.

Integrated Hydrologic Modelling of Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions in Cold Regions

Groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction, as a key component in the cold region hydrologic cycle, is extremely sensitive to seasonal and climate change. Specifically, the dynamic change of snow cover and frozen soil bring additional challenges in observing and simulating hydrologic processes under GW-SW interactions in cold regions. Integrated hydrologic models are promising tools to simulate such complex processes and study the system behaviours as well as its responses to perturbations. The cold region integrated hydrologic models should be physically representative and fully considering the thermal-hydrologic processes under snow cover variations, freeze-thaw cycles in frozen soils and GW-SW interactions. Benchmarking and integration with scarce field observations are also critical in developing cold region integrated hydrologic models. This review summarizes the current status of hydrologic models suitable for cold environment, including distributed hydrologic models, cryo-hydrogeologic models, and fully-coupled cold region GW-SW models, with a specific focus on their concepts, numerical methods, benchmarking, and applications across scales. The current research can provide implications for cold region hydrologic model development and advance our understanding of altered environments in cold regions disturbed by climate change, such as permafrost degradation, early snow melt and water shortage.