Quantile Value Method for Geotechnical Reliability Code Calibration

Author(s):  
Jiany Ching ◽  
Kok-Kwang Phoon
Keyword(s):  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5474
Author(s):  
Tuomo Poutanen

This article addresses the process to optimally select safety factors and characteristic values for the Eurocodes. Five amendments to the present codes are proposed: (1) The load factors are fixed, γG = γQ, by making the characteristic load of the variable load changeable, it simplifies the codes and lessens the calculation work. (2) Currently, the characteristic load of the variable load is the same for all variable loads. It creates excess safety and material waste for the variable loads with low variation. This deficiency can be avoided by applying the same amendment as above. (3) Various materials fit with different accuracy in the reliability model. This article explains two options to reduce this difficulty. (4) A method to avoid rounding errors in the safety factors is explained. (5) The current safety factors are usually set by minimizing the reliability indexes regarding the target when the obtained codes include considerable safe and unsafe design cases with the variability ratio (high reliability/low) of about 1.4. The proposed three code models match the target β50 = 3.2 with high accuracy, no unsafe design cases and insignificant safe design cases with the variability ratio 1.07, 1.03 and 1.04.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Siril Okkenhaug ◽  
Øivind Paulshus
Keyword(s):  

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kleio Avrithi

Previous research developed Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) equations for Class 2 and 3 nuclear piping for different reliability levels and load combinations. The LRFD equations consider separate safety factors for each load and for the strength of steel in opposition to the Allowable Stress Design (ASD) equations used in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel (B&PV) Code, Section III, Div. 1, where only one safety factor is considered. In order to use the developed LRFD equations for the design of nuclear piping, specific reliability levels or else acceptable probabilities of failure need to be assigned to each Code equation. The paper discusses the available methods for evaluating the target reliability index, such as historical data of piping failures, expert-opinion elicitation, and Code calibration. Code calibration is the method of determining the existing level of reliability in the Code equations and assigning the same reliability to the developed LRFD equations in a consistent manner. Code Calibration is explained to be the more appropriate method of assigning reliability levels to the LRFD equations. The other methods can supplement the analysis results.


Author(s):  
Hee-Cheol Choi ◽  
Young-Ju Kim ◽  
Se-Won Lee ◽  
Jae-Yeol Han ◽  
Oh-Bong Kwon ◽  
...  

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (14) ◽  
pp. 1729-1747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Stensgaard Toft ◽  
Kim Branner ◽  
Leon Mishnaevsky ◽  
John Dalsgaard Sørensen

1987 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 788-794
Author(s):  
Niels C. Lind

A design standard for structural glass in the limit state design format is currently being developed under the auspices of the Canadian General Standards Board. The standard will be calibrated to a target level of reliability expressed in terms of a reliability index. The selection of this reliability level presents some special problems because the loading is dynamic, the structural response is geometrically nonlinear, and the strength is highly dependent on time, size, and loading history. Selection of safety level so as to achieve a social and economic optimum is described. The optimum reliability index is 3.0, corresponding to a lifetime failure probability of 0.0014, when the social and economic cost of failure is between 15 and 70 times the initial cost. Optimal ranges of applicability over cost for a pair of importance factors (0.8 and 1.25) are also determined. Key words: glass, design, standard, code, calibration, reliability, optimization, importance factor.


Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Gudfinnur Sigurdsson

Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) is a useful tool in structural engineering. Uncertainty in input parameters and model uncertainties in the analysis predictions are explicitly modelled by random variables. With this methodology, the uncertainties involved are handled in a consistent and transparent way. Compared to a deterministic analysis, SRA provides improved insight in how the various uncertainties involved influence the results. The main results from SRA is the calculated probability of structural failure, but other useful results such as uncertainty importance factors and design points being the most likely combination of all variables at failure represent helpful information. The present paper illustrates some the features using SRA for two different types of application. The first application is the use of SRA as a tool for code calibration and the second shows the application of SRA to a problem where common practice is likely to be rather conservative and therefore leading to unacceptable results, but where the degree of conservatism is not known. Two examples are chosen to illustrate code calibration; i.e. hull girder ultimate limit state (ULS) for tankers and ULS for mooring design in the ULS for floating offshore vessels. Code calibration involves both SRA and design analysis following the code. It is shown how the design analysis can be modified in order to better reflect a chosen target reliability level across a selected set of test cases representative for what the code should cover. Fatigue of subsea wellhead systems is selected as an example of a special case when application of existing rules may lead to unsatisfactory results which are likely to be rather conservative. It is shown how results can be presented in terms of the accumulated probability of fatigue failure as a function of time. This may be a more suitable basis for decision making than a calculated fatigue life from a standard analysis. It is also illustrated how importance factors from the SRA can be used as guidance on how to prioritize effort in order to improve prediction of the fatigue damage. The present paper is not intended to be detailed in all input and analysis methodology, but draw the attention towards the possibilities and benefits of applying SRA in structural engineering, where the examples are used to illustrate this potential.


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