A new type of tropical Pacific warming—El Niño Modoki

Physics Today ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 71 (12) ◽  
pp. 50-52
Author(s):  
Marvin Xiang Ce Seow
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
New Type

scholarly journals Influence of tropical Pacific SST on seasonal precipitation in Colombia: prediction using El Niño and El Niño Modoki

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 1293-1310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir Córdoba-Machado ◽  
Reiner Palomino-Lemus ◽  
Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis ◽  
Yolanda Castro-Díez ◽  
María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
El Niño Modoki

scholarly journals El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
X. San Liang ◽  
Fen Xu ◽  
Yineng Rong ◽  
Renhe Zhang ◽  
Xu Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Information Flow ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Causal Structure ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
Classical Models ◽  
New Type ◽  
One Year

AbstractThe 2014–2015 “Monster”/“Super” El Niño failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Niño, El Niño Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this study, we show that, so far as of today, this new El Niño actually can be mostly predicted at a lead time of more than 10 years. This is achieved through tracing the predictability source with an information flow-based causality analysis, which has been rigorously established from first principles during the past 16 years (e.g., Liang in Phys Rev E 94:052201, 2016). We show that the information flowing from the solar activity 45 years ago to the sea surface temperature results in a causal structure resembling the El Niño Modoki mode. Based on this, a multidimensional system is constructed out of the sunspot number series with time delays of 22–50 years. The first 25 principal components are then taken as the predictors to fulfill the prediction, which through causal AI based on the Liang–Kleeman information flow reproduces rather accurately the events thus far 12 years in advance.

Why Was the Indian Ocean Dipole Weak in the Context of the Extreme El Niño in 2015?

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 4755-4761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Liu ◽  
Guang Yang ◽  
Xia Zhao ◽  
Lin Feng ◽  
Guoqing Han ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Extreme El Niño

The Indian Ocean witnessed a weak positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event from the boreal summer to autumn in 2015, while an extreme El Niño occurred over the tropical Pacific. This was different from the case in 1997/98, when an extreme El Niño and the strongest IOD took place simultaneously. The analysis here suggests that the unique sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern of El Niño in 2015 might have contributed to the weak IOD that year. El Niño in 2015 had a complex SSTA pattern, with positive warming over the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Such a combination of the classic El Niño (also known as cold-tongue El Niño) and the recently identified central Pacific El Niño (also known as El Niño Modoki II) had opposite remote influences on the tropical Indian Ocean. The classic El Niño reduced the strength of the Walker circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean, but this was offset by El Niño Modoki II. This study points out that the IOD can be strongly modulated by combined El Niño types in some circumstances, as in 2015.

scholarly journals Indian Ocean impact on ENSO evolution 2014–2016 in a set of seasonal forecasting experiments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variations ◽  
The Indian Ocean

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of the anomalously warm Indian Ocean state on the unprecedentedly weak Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the unexpected evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 2014–2016. It uses 25-month-long coupled twin forecast experiments with modified Indian Ocean initial conditions sampling observed decadal variations. An unperturbed experiment initialized in Feb 2014 forecasts moderately warm ENSO conditions in year 1 and year 2 and an anomalously weak ITF throughout, which acts to keep tropical Pacific ocean heat content (OHC) anomalously high. Changing only the Indian Ocean to cooler 1997 conditions substantially alters the 2-year forecast of Tropical Pacific conditions. Differences include (i) increased probability of strong El Niño in 2014 and La Niña in 2015, (ii) significantly increased ITF transports and (iii), as a consequence, stronger Pacific ocean heat divergence and thus a reduction of Pacific OHC over the two years. The Indian Ocean’s impact in year 1 is via the atmospheric bridge arising from altered Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Effects of altered ITF and associated ocean heat divergence (oceanic tunnel) become apparent by year 2, including modified ENSO probabilities and Tropical Pacific OHC. A mirrored twin experiment starting from unperturbed 1997 conditions and several sensitivity experiments corroborate these findings. This work demonstrates the importance of the Indian Ocean’s decadal variations on ENSO and highlights the previously underappreciated role of the oceanic tunnel. Results also indicate that, given the physical links between year-to-year ENSO variations, 2-year-long forecasts can provide additional guidance for interpretation of forecasted year-1 ENSO probabilities.

scholarly journals Changes in Spread and Predictability Associated with ENSO in an Ensemble Coupled GCM

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4378-4396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Surface Pressure ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Signal Change

Abstract The present study documents the influence of El Niño and La Niña events on the spread and predictability of rainfall, surface pressure, and 500-hPa geopotential height, and contrasts the relative contribution of signal and noise changes to the predictability change based on a long-term integration of an interactive ensemble coupled general circulation model. It is found that the pattern of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced noise change for rainfall follows closely that of the corresponding signal change in most of the tropical regions. The noise for tropical Pacific surface pressure is larger (smaller) in regions of lower (higher) mean pressure. The ENSO-induced noise change for 500-hPa height displays smaller spatial scales compared to and has no systematic relationship with the signal change. The predictability for tropical rainfall and surface pressure displays obvious contrasts between the summer and winter over the Bay of Bengal, the western North Pacific, and the tropical southwestern Indian Ocean. The predictability for tropical 500-hPa height is higher in boreal summer than in boreal winter. In the equatorial central Pacific, the predictability for rainfall is much higher in La Niña years than in El Niño years. This occurs because of a larger percent reduction in the amplitude of noise compared to the percent decrease in the magnitude of signal from El Niño to La Niña years. A consistent change is seen in the predictability for surface pressure near the date line. In the western North and South Pacific, the predictability for boreal winter rainfall is higher in El Niño years than in La Niña years. This is mainly due to a stronger signal in El Niño years compared to La Niña years. The predictability for 500-hPa height increases over most of the Tropics in El Niño years. Over western tropical Pacific–Australia and East Asia, the predictability for boreal winter surface pressure and 500-hPa height is higher in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The predictability change for 500-hPa height is primarily due to the signal change.

scholarly journals The Response of Tropical Atmospheric Energy Budgets to ENSO*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4710-4724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
Leopold Haimberger ◽  
John T. Fasullo
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
Static Energy ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract The variability of zonally resolved tropical energy budgets in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated. The most recent global atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2011 are employed with removal of apparent discontinuities to obtain best possible temporal homogeneity. The growing length of record allows a more robust analysis of characteristic patterns of variability with cross-correlation, composite, and EOF methods. A quadrupole anomaly pattern is found in the vertically integrated energy divergence associated with ENSO, with centers over the Indian Ocean, the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the eastern equatorial Pacific, and the Atlantic. The smooth transition, particularly of the main maxima of latent and dry static energy divergence, from the western to the eastern Pacific is found to require at least two EOFs to be adequately described. The canonical El Niño pattern (EOF-1) and a transition pattern (EOF-2; referred to as El Niño Modoki by some authors) form remarkably coherent ENSO-related anomaly structures of the tropical energy budget not only over the Pacific but throughout the tropics. As latent and dry static energy divergences show strong mutual cancellation, variability of total energy divergence is smaller and more tightly coupled to local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and is mainly related to the ocean heat discharge and recharge during ENSO peak phases. The complexity of the structures throughout the tropics and their evolution during ENSO events along with their interactions with the annual cycle have often not been adequately accounted for; in particular, the El Niño Modoki mode is but part of the overall evolutionary patterns.

scholarly journals ENSO’s Modulation of Water Vapor Transport over the Pacific–North American Region

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3846-3856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hye-Mi Kim ◽  
Michael A. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract The vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over the Pacific–North American sector during three phases of ENSO in boreal winter (December–February) is investigated using IVT values calculated from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) during 1979–2010. The shift of the location and sign of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean leads to different atmospheric responses and thereby changes the seasonal mean moisture transport into North America. During eastern Pacific El Niño (EPEN) events, large positive IVT anomalies extend northeastward from the subtropical Pacific into the northwestern United States following the anomalous cyclonic flow around a deeper Aleutian low, while a southward shift of the cyclonic circulation during central Pacific El Niño (CPEN) events induces the transport of moisture into the southwestern United States. In addition, moisture from the eastern tropical Pacific is transported from the deep tropical eastern Pacific into Mexico and the southwestern United States during CPEN. During La Niña (NINA), the seasonal mean IVT anomaly is opposite to that of two El Niño phases. Analyses of 6-hourly IVT anomalies indicate that there is strong moisture transport from the North Pacific into the northwestern and southwestern United States during EPEN and CPEN, respectively. The IVT is maximized on the southeastern side of a low located over the eastern North Pacific, where the low is weaker but located farther south and closer to shore during CPEN than during EPEN. Moisture enters the southwestern United States from the eastern tropical Pacific during NINA via anticyclonic circulation associated with a ridge over the southern United States.

scholarly journals ENSO’s Impact on the Gap Wind Regions of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 3549-3565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
Hyodae Seo ◽  
Shang Ping Xie ◽  
James D. Scott
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Tropical Pacific Ocean ◽  
Variable Surface ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The recently released NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) is used to examine the response to ENSO in the northeast tropical Pacific Ocean (NETP) during 1979–2009. The normally cool Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with wind jets through the gaps in the Central American mountains at Tehuantepec, Papagayo, and Panama are substantially warmer (colder) than the surrounding ocean during El Niño (La Niña) events. Ocean dynamics generate the ENSO-related SST anomalies in the gap wind regions as the surface fluxes damp the SSTs anomalies, while the Ekman heat transport is generally in quadrature with the anomalies. The ENSO-driven warming is associated with large-scale deepening of the thermocline; with the cold thermocline water at greater depths during El Niño in the NETP, it is less likely to be vertically mixed to the surface, particularly in the gap wind regions where the thermocline is normally very close to the surface. The thermocline deepening is enhanced to the south of the Costa Rica Dome in the Papagayo region, which contributes to the local ENSO-driven SST anomalies. The NETP thermocline changes are due to coastal Kelvin waves that initiate westward-propagating Rossby waves, and possibly ocean eddies, rather than by local Ekman pumping. These findings were confirmed with regional ocean model experiments: only integrations that included interannually varying ocean boundary conditions were able to simulate the thermocline deepening and localized warming in the NETP during El Niño events; the simulation with variable surface fluxes, but boundary conditions that repeated the seasonal cycle, did not.

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