Constraints and opportunities in applying seasonal climate forecasts in agriculture

2007 ◽  
Vol 58 (10) ◽  
pp. 952 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Ash ◽  
Peter McIntosh ◽  
Brendan Cullen ◽  
Peter Carberry ◽  
Mark Stafford Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Rural Livelihoods ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Communication Techniques ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
The Face ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Climate variability has an enormous impact on agricultural productivity, rural livelihoods, and economics at farm, regional, and national scales. An every-day challenge facing farmers is to make management decisions in the face of this climate variability. Being able to minimise losses in droughts and take advantage of favourable seasons is the promise of seasonal climate forecasts. The criteria for their adoption depends on what variables are forecast, their accuracy, the likely economic and/or natural resource benefits and how well they are communicated. In reviewing how current seasonal climate forecasts meet these criteria, it is clear that they offer considerable potential to buffer the effects of climate variability in agriculture, particularly in regions that have high levels of inter-annual rainfall variability and are strongly influenced by El Niño and La Niña events. However, the current skill, lead time, relevance to agricultural decisions, and communication techniques are not well enough advanced and/or integrated to lead to widespread confidence and adoption by farmers. The current challenges are to continue to improve forecast reliability and to better communicate the probabilistic outputs of seasonal climate forecasts to decision makers.

scholarly journals Challenges and Opportunities Provided by Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A Literature Review

2002 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 603-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harvey S.J. Hill ◽  
James W. Mjelde
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Close Cooperation ◽  
Successful Collaboration ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Use of seasonal climate forecasts is a rapidly evolving area. Effective research and application of climate forecasts require close cooperation between scientists in diverse disciplines and decision makers. Successful collaboration requires all players to at least partially understand each other's perspectives. Issues associated with seasonal forecasts, through a selected review of both physical and social sciences literature, is presented. Our hope is that the review will improve research in this area by stimulating further collaborations.

A survey of farmers' attitudes, management strategies and use of weather and seasonal climate forecasts for coping with climate variability in the perennial pasture zone of south-east Australia

2002 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 173 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Austen ◽  
P. W. G. Sale ◽  
S. G. Clark ◽  
B. Graetz
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Farm Management ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Stocking Rates ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

A survey of 62 producers in the perennial pasture zone of south-eastern Australia was undertaken to gain an understanding of farmer attitudes toward climate variability, the use of weather and seasonal climate forecasts on farms and how climatic variability affects farm management. The 3 localities surveyed were Hamilton and surrounding districts in south-western Victoria, Lucindale and Naracoorte districts of south-eastern South Australia, and Campbell Town, Ross and Bothwell districts of North Central and upper Derwent Valley regions of Tasmania. Farmers in all districts considered winter rainfall to be the most reliable in terms of consistency, while autumn rainfall was the least reliable but had the greatest impact on production. Perceptions of seasonal rainfall variability and its impact were influenced by stocking rates; farmers with more heavily stocked properties considered rainfall in the growing season to be less reliable than did farmers with lower stocking rates and that autumn and winter rainfall had a greater impact on production. All farmers had strategies to manage their grazing enterprises in response to the prevailing season’s climate conditions, but not all available strategies were used. All participants fed supplements in poorer seasons while Tasmanian farmers tended to reduce stock numbers more in poorer seasons than did Victorian farmers. All the farmers used short-term weather forecasts to help make decisions about farm management, with 100% of farmers in all 3 states using radio and television forecasts and sheep graziers’ warnings. However, farmers felt that many other forecasts were unreliable and they were often were unwilling to incorporate them into decision making. Less than 50% of farmers had read or heard about the 3-month seasonal climate outlook and they were not willing to base management decisions on these outlooks. The uptake of information technology and the use of the Internet amongst farmers in the perennial pasture zone have increased rapidly, with an average of 76% of farmers using a computer and 30% connected to the Internet. Computers were mainly used for financial and farm management, while the Internet was mainly used for farm information. The education level attained by the farmer was the main factor that influenced the uptake and use of information technology.

Seasonal Climate Predictions: Farmers, Planners, and Policymakers

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cynthia Rosenzweig ◽  
Daniel Hillel
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Resource Managers ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Researchers from the physical, biological, and social sciences, in communication with decision-makers, are working to improve and apply seasonal climate forecasts relevant to risk management in climate-sensitive systems. Noteworthy is the mission of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), which focuses on integrating the roles of science and society to forecast climate phenomena in general, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in particular. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration created IRI in 1996 at Columbia University in New York to engage in climate research and modeling on the seasonalto- interannual time scale and to provide the results of the research to people affected by climate in various regions of the world. Agrawala et al. (2001) characterize the IRI as a “boundary” institution, straddling two major divides: one between fundamental research and societal applications, and the other between developed and developing countries. The motivations for its creation included fostering a multidisciplinary approach to applications, building on current programs and policies, and redressing inequity in large-scale climate research. Farmers and other agricultural decision-makers are a major group of potential users of seasonal climate forecasts. Water-resource managers are another such group. Interdisciplinary efforts have deepened the realization that improved climate information systems are embedded in social, economic, and political contexts and that understanding these contexts is required in order to improve the use of forecasts. A key aspect of the context of climate forecasting is the interrelationship of climate, climate forecasts, and risk. A growing body of research pertains to how agricultural decision-makers relate to risk and how responding to climate forecasts may help them manage it. This research is in the process of being consolidated into a framework by which forecasts can be made, disseminated, and utilized effectively by a range of decision-makers. Questions relevant to the use of climate predictions include: How can agricultural practitioners at different levels of social organization use climate forecasts to improve their planning and management decisions? How are climate risks perceived and acted on? What are the potential economic benefits? What policies can facilitate the use of climate-forecast information?

Constraints and Suggestions in Adopting Seasonal Climate Forecasts by Farmers in South India

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Ravi Shankar ◽  
K. Nagasree ◽  
B. Venkateswarlu ◽  
Pochaiah Maraty
Keyword(s):  
South India ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Encouraging use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers

2005 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 1127-1137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rod McCrea ◽  
Len Dalgleish ◽  
Will Coventry
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts
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