scholarly journals Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

2014 ◽  
Vol 111 (20) ◽  
pp. 7176-7184 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. G. Morgan
2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. e2021558118
Author(s):  
Tamara Savage ◽  
Alex Davis ◽  
Baruch Fischhoff ◽  
M. Granger Morgan

Forecasts of the future cost and performance of technologies are often used to support decision-making. However, retrospective reviews find that many forecasts made by experts are not very accurate and are often seriously overconfident, with realized values too frequently falling outside of forecasted ranges. Here, we outline a hybrid approach to expert elicitation that we believe might improve forecasts of future technologies. The proposed approach iteratively combines the judgments of technical domain experts with those of experts who are knowledgeable about broader issues of technology adoption and public policy. We motivate the approach with results from a pilot study designed to help forecasters think systematically about factors beyond the technology itself that may shape its future, such as policy, economic, and social factors. Forecasters who received briefings on these topics provided wider forecast intervals than those receiving no assistance.


Author(s):  
Glenda H. Eoyang ◽  
Lois Yellowthunder ◽  
Vic Ward

2020 ◽  
Vol 98 ◽  
pp. 68-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aseem Kinra ◽  
Samaneh Beheshti-Kashi ◽  
Rasmus Buch ◽  
Thomas Alexander Sick Nielsen ◽  
Francisco Pereira

1980 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 562
Author(s):  
F. W. Anderson ◽  
Douglas G. Hartle

SEG Discovery ◽  
2004 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Jonathan G. Price

ABSTRACT Rhyolites and their deep-seated chemical equivalents, granites, are some of the most interesting rocks. They provide good examples of why it is important to look carefully at fresh rocks in terms of fıeld relationships, mineralogy, petrography, petrology, geochemistry, and alteration processes. Because of their evolved geochemisty, they commonly are important in terms of ore-forming processes. They are almost certainly the source of metal in many beryllium and lithium deposits and the source of heat for many other hydrothermal systems. From other perspectives, rhyolitic volcanic eruptions have the capacity of destroying civilizations, and their geochemistry (e.g., high contents of radioactive elements) is relevant to public policy decision-making.


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