scholarly journals A strategy to improve expert technology forecasts

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. e2021558118
Author(s):  
Tamara Savage ◽  
Alex Davis ◽  
Baruch Fischhoff ◽  
M. Granger Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Factors ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Future Cost ◽  
Domain Experts ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Future Technologies ◽  
Support Decision Making

Forecasts of the future cost and performance of technologies are often used to support decision-making. However, retrospective reviews find that many forecasts made by experts are not very accurate and are often seriously overconfident, with realized values too frequently falling outside of forecasted ranges. Here, we outline a hybrid approach to expert elicitation that we believe might improve forecasts of future technologies. The proposed approach iteratively combines the judgments of technical domain experts with those of experts who are knowledgeable about broader issues of technology adoption and public policy. We motivate the approach with results from a pilot study designed to help forecasters think systematically about factors beyond the technology itself that may shape its future, such as policy, economic, and social factors. Forecasters who received briefings on these topics provided wider forecast intervals than those receiving no assistance.

scholarly journals A Simulation-Based Tool to Support Decision-Making in Logistics Design of a Can Packaging Line

2019 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria G. Achkar ◽  
Valentina Bär ◽  
Franco Cornú ◽  
Carlos A. Méndez
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Material Handling ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Inventory Systems ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Event Simulation ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Support Decision Making

AbstractThis study proposes an advanced discrete-event simulation-based tool to support decision-making in the internal logistic design of a packaging line of a multinational brewery company. The selected software, Simio, allows emulating, advising and predicting the behavior of complex real-world systems. The simulation model provides a 3D interface that facilitates verification and validation. In this work, the designed model is used to understand the dynamic interactions between multiple factors and performance measures including both material-handling and inventory systems and to define necessary quantities and/or capacities of resources for a future can packaging line. Based on the proposed model, a what-if analysis is performed to determine inventory threshold values and other critical variables in order to optimize the configuration of internal logistics in potential scenarios.

scholarly journals Future cost and performance of water electrolysis: An expert elicitation study

2017 ◽  
Vol 42 (52) ◽  
pp. 30470-30492 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Schmidt ◽  
A. Gambhir ◽  
I. Staffell ◽  
A. Hawkes ◽  
J. Nelson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Electrolysis ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Future Cost ◽  
Elicitation Study ◽  
And Performance

A CAS Approach to Public Policy Decision Making

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenda H. Eoyang ◽  
Lois Yellowthunder ◽  
Vic Ward
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Policy Decision Making

Segments Influencing Individual Investors Behavior And Their Investment Decision

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (9) ◽  
pp. 154-160
Author(s):  
Dr. Kartikey Koti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Factors ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Social ◽  
Karnataka State ◽  
Essential Idea

The essential idea of this assessment is investigate the social factors affecting particular theorists' decisions making limit at Indian Stock Markets. In the examination coordinated standard of direct is Classified subject to two estimations the first is Heuristic (Decision making) and the resulting one is prospect.. For the assessment coordinated the data used is basic natured which is assembled through a sorted out survey from 100 individual money related authorities based out in Hubli and Dharwad city, Karnataka State in India on an accommodating way. The respondents were both sex and overwhelming part male were 68% . These theorists were having a spot with the age bundle between35-45 which is 38%. These respondents have completed their graduation were around 56%. These respondents had work inclusion of 5 to 10 years which is 45% and the majority of which were used in government portion which is 56%. Their compensation was between 4 to 6 Lakh and were fit for placing assets into business areas. The money related experts were widely masterminded placing assets into different portfolios like 32% in Share market and 20 % in Fixed store. These examiners mode to known various endeavor streets were through News, family and allies.  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document