Correction for Salganik et al., Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.

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Introduction to the Special Collection on the Fragile Families Challenge

Socius Sociological Research for a Dynamic World ◽

10.1177/2378023119871580 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. 237802311987158 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Matthew J. Salganik ◽

Ian Lundberg ◽

Alexander T. Kindel ◽

Sara McLanahan

Keyword(s):

Predictive Models ◽

Fragile Families ◽

Birth Cohort Study ◽

Life Outcomes ◽

High Quality ◽

Mass Collaboration ◽

Life Trajectories ◽

Special Collection ◽

Using Data ◽

The Individual

The Fragile Families Challenge is a scientific mass collaboration designed to measure and understand the predictability of life trajectories. Participants in the Challenge created predictive models of six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. This Special Collection includes 12 articles describing participants’ approaches to predicting these six outcomes as well as 3 articles describing methodological and procedural insights from running the Challenge. This introduction will help readers interpret the individual articles and help researchers interested in running future projects similar to the Fragile Families Challenge.

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Group Experiences and Individual Differences in Stuttering

Journal of Speech Language and Hearing Research ◽

10.1044/2019_jslhr-19-00138 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 62 (12) ◽

pp. 4335-4350 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Seth E. Tichenor ◽

J. Scott Yaruss

Keyword(s):

Individual Differences ◽

Support Groups ◽

Support Group ◽

Affective States ◽

Life Outcomes ◽

Self Help ◽

Wide Range ◽

Group Experiences ◽

History Of ◽

Adults Who Stutter

Purpose This study explored group experiences and individual differences in the behaviors, thoughts, and feelings perceived by adults who stutter. Respondents' goals when speaking and prior participation in self-help/support groups were used to predict individual differences in reported behaviors, thoughts, and feelings. Method In this study, 502 adults who stutter completed a survey examining their behaviors, thoughts, and feelings in and around moments of stuttering. Data were analyzed to determine distributions of group and individual experiences. Results Speakers reported experiencing a wide range of both overt behaviors (e.g., repetitions) and covert behaviors (e.g., remaining silent, choosing not to speak). Having the goal of not stuttering when speaking was significantly associated with more covert behaviors and more negative cognitive and affective states, whereas a history of self-help/support group participation was significantly associated with a decreased probability of these behaviors and states. Conclusion Data from this survey suggest that participating in self-help/support groups and having a goal of communicating freely (as opposed to trying not to stutter) are associated with less negative life outcomes due to stuttering. Results further indicate that the behaviors, thoughts, and experiences most commonly reported by speakers may not be those that are most readily observed by listeners.

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