The behaviour of expected short-term real interest rates in the UK

1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 331-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terence C. Mills ◽  
Michael J. Stephenson
2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Dedy Syahputra ◽  
Abubakar Hamzah ◽  
Muhammad Nasir

This study aimed to analyze the influence of the GDP, the real interest rate, the labor force, the private investment in Indonesia. The data used in this research is time-series data from 2000 to 2014. The research model uses an error correction model (ECM). The results showed in the long term, GDP, labor force and real interest rates have a statistically significant relationship good and theory with a confidence level of 95 percent. In the long-term estimate found that the labor force will greatly affect private investment and the estimated short-term real interest rates affect the amount of investment that will go to Indonesia. In coefficient explained, the labor force has a strong influence and advice foreign investment into the country. For short-term model estimation results indicate GDP and real interest rates significantly affect the labor force in private investment but no significant effect on private investment. However, both long term and short term, variable real interest rates still the basic reason for investing. In result of cointegration explain that the variable GDP, real interest rates, and the laborforce has a cointegration relation to investment in the long term. The government needs to increase investment and promote the economy and set the interest rates are low. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh PDB, tingkat bunga riil, angkatan kerja, terhadap investasi swasta di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data time-series tahun 2000 hingga tahun 2014. Model penelitian ini menggunakan Error Corection Model (ECM). Hasil menunjukkan dalam jangka panjang, PDB, angkatan kerja dan suku bunga riil memiliki hubungan signifikan baik statistik dan teori dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95 persen. Pada estimasi jangka panjang ditemukan bahwa angkatan kerja akan sangat mempengaruhi investasi swasta dan estimasi jangka pendek, tingkat suku bunga riil mempengaruhi besarnya investasi yang akan masuk ke Indonesia. Secara koefisien menjelaskan, angkatan kerja memiliki pengaruh yang cukup kuat dan memberi masukan investasi asing ke dalam negeri. Untuk hasil estimasi model jangka pendek menunjukkan PDB dan tingkat bunga riil berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap investasi swasta tetapi angkatan kerja tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap investasi swasta. Namun demikian, baik jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek, variabel tingkat suku bunga riil masih menjadi alasan dasar untuk berinvestasi. Dalam hasil kointegrasi menjelaskan bahwa variabel PDB, suku bunga riil, dan angkatan kerja memiliki hubungan kointegrasi terhadap investasi dalam jangka panjang. Pemerintah perlu meningkatkan investasi dan memajukan perekonomian serta mengatur suku bunga yang rendah.


1996 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Nölling

AbstractWith the beginning of EMU there will be only one monetary policy with a single short term interest rate. In order for common monetary policy to be successful EMU member states have to react similarly to monetary signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). Because of its unique sensitivity to short term interest rates, this would not be the case for the UK. If, for example, the ECB would raise the short term interest rates by an amount which is appropriate for countries like France and Germany, the UK might sink into recession. This shows that besides political reasons there is also an economic reason for the UK’s opting-out from EMU.


2017 ◽  
Vol 241 ◽  
pp. R58-R64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunus Aksoy ◽  
Henrique S. Basso ◽  
Ron P. Smith

While there may be an important, but transitory, cyclical component in the poor performance of the past decade, we will emphasise the secular forces: the impact of demographic structure and innovation. We draw on the empirical and theoretical work reported in Aksoy, Basso, Smith and Grasl (2015), ABSG, about the impact of changes in demographic structure on macroeconomic outcomes. This suggests that changes in age profile not only have significant implications for savings, investment, real interest rates and growth but also for innovation. The size of the effects seems plausible. For instance, if in 2015 the UK had the 1970 age structure, it would have added 0.68 percentage points to the long-run annual growth rate. The model suggests that the population ageing predicted for the next decades will tend to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.


Significance There is little risk that inflation will return to heights seen in the 1980s as the authorities have the tools to control high inflation. However, their effective deployment depends on cooperation between the BoE and Her Majesty's Treasury (HM Treasury -- the finance ministry). Impacts The long-run demographic forces that kept real interest rates low in the past will continue to keep them low in the future. Low real rates and little risk of high inflation mean nominal rates will also remain low. Moderate inflation in the range 0-5% can be expected over the next decade. A dose of moderate inflation will be useful for the UK economy as it will ease the relative price adjustments needed during the recovery.


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