Rising prices are not a long-run UK economy risk

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Price Adjustments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Uk

Significance There is little risk that inflation will return to heights seen in the 1980s as the authorities have the tools to control high inflation. However, their effective deployment depends on cooperation between the BoE and Her Majesty's Treasury (HM Treasury -- the finance ministry). Impacts The long-run demographic forces that kept real interest rates low in the past will continue to keep them low in the future. Low real rates and little risk of high inflation mean nominal rates will also remain low. Moderate inflation in the range 0-5% can be expected over the next decade. A dose of moderate inflation will be useful for the UK economy as it will ease the relative price adjustments needed during the recovery.

scholarly journals Medium-Run Implications of Changing Demographic Structures for the Macro-Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 241 ◽  
pp. R58-R64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunus Aksoy ◽  
Henrique S. Basso ◽  
Ron P. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Theoretical Work ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Demographic Structure ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

While there may be an important, but transitory, cyclical component in the poor performance of the past decade, we will emphasise the secular forces: the impact of demographic structure and innovation. We draw on the empirical and theoretical work reported in Aksoy, Basso, Smith and Grasl (2015), ABSG, about the impact of changes in demographic structure on macroeconomic outcomes. This suggests that changes in age profile not only have significant implications for savings, investment, real interest rates and growth but also for innovation. The size of the effects seems plausible. For instance, if in 2015 the UK had the 1970 age structure, it would have added 0.68 percentage points to the long-run annual growth rate. The model suggests that the population ageing predicted for the next decades will tend to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.

Rental rate as an alternative pricing for Islamic home financing

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 601-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosylin Mohd Yusof ◽  
Mejda Bahlous ◽  
Roszaini Haniffa
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rental Rate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to the banking and housing market literature by proposing an alternative measure of rate of return for Islamic banks that is based on the rental rate of the property. This alternative Islamic mortgage pricing mechanism could be adopted by Islamic banks as a replacement for mortgage rates if it is found to be independent from any form of interest rates as required by Islamic law. Design/methodology/approach By investigating the short run and long run dynamics between rental price index (RPI) and the proposed Islamic Rental Rate (RR-I) and, three selected macroeconomic indicators in the UK via autoregressive distributed lag model, the authors examine the link between RPI, RR-I and the real economy. Findings The findings provide evidence that while RPI in the UK is significantly related to three leading macroeconomic variables, namely, gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate and interest rates measures, while RR-I is only impacted by changes in GDP. More importantly, the authors show that there is no short or long run dynamics between the rental rate and any form of interest rates. Research limitations/implications This paper did not attempt to investigate the impact of the physical attributes of the rental property to formalize the model describing the relationship between RPI and RR-I. Also, other macroeconomic factors like household income growth, risk, house value growth rate and taxation could be included in future models. Practical implications As Rental Rate is not linked to the macroeconomic determinants, it is therefore more stable, resilient and sustainable and, at the same time, making the financing less risky for both parties, as they are less susceptible to economic vulnerabilities. Social implications Some calculations incorporating the proposed RR-I can also be extended to the pricing of products based on other contracts such as Tawarruq, Bai Bithaman Ajil or even Murabahah for a fairer and just pricing to both the banks and customers. Originality/value The results suggest that Islamic banks should consider incorporating the proposed rental rate (RR-I) when pricing their home financing products, as this will lead to less dependence on interest rates for benchmarking. In addition, using the proposed rental rate (RR-I) reduces the exposure to the subjective evaluation by property valuators and speculative macroeconomic elements.

scholarly journals The associations between stock prices, inflation rates, interest rates are still persistent

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (49) ◽  
pp. 149-161
Author(s):  
Tarek Eldomiaty ◽  
Yasmeen Saeed ◽  
Rasha Hammam ◽  
Salma AboulSoud
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Johansen Cointegration ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effect of both inflation rate and interest rate on stock prices using quarterly data on non-financial firms listed in DJIA30 and NASDAQ100 for the period 1999-2016. The stock duration model is used to measure the sensitivity in variations in inflation rates and interest rates on stock prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors use standard statistical tools that include Johansen cointegration test, linearity, normality tests, cointegration regression, Granger causality and vector error correction model. Findings The results of panel Johansen cointegration analysis show that cointegration exists between the stock prices, the changes in stock prices due to inflation rates and the changes in stock prices due to real interest rates. The results of cointegration regression show that inflation rates are negatively associated with stock prices, the real interest rates and stock prices are positively associated, changes in real interest rates and inflation rates Granger cause significant changes in stock prices, significant speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium between observed stock prices and real interest rates and significant speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium between changes in stock prices due to real interest rates and changes in inflation rates. Originality/value This paper contributes to the empirical literature in three ways. The paper examines the effects of inflation and interest rates on stock prices differently from other related studies by separating inflation from real interest rates. The paper examines the causality between stock prices, interest and inflation rates. This paper offers significant updated validity to extended literature that a negative association exists between stock prices and inflation rates. This validity can be considered as an existence a theory of stock prices, inflation rates and interest rates.

The causes and challenges of low interest rates: insights from basic principles and recent literature

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Youchang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Forces ◽  
Rate Environment

PurposeWhat causes the downward trend of real interest rates in major developed economies since the 1980s? What are the challenges of the near-zero interest and inflation rates for monetary policy? What can the policymakers learn from the latest developments in the monetary and interest rate theory? This paper aims to answer these questions by reviewing both basic principles of interest rate determination and recent academic and policy debates.Design/methodology/approachThe paper critically reviews the explanations for the downward trend of real interest rates in recent decades and monetary policy options in a near-zero interest rate environment.FindingsThe decline of real interest rates is likely an outcome of multiple technological, social and economic factors including diminished productivity growth, changing demographics, elevated tail-risk concerns, time-varying convenience yields of safe assets, increased global demand for safe assets, rising wealth and income inequality, falling relative price of capital, accommodative monetary policies, and changes in industry structure that alter the investment and saving behaviors of the corporate sector. The near-zero interest rate limits the space of central banks' response to economic crises. It also challenges some conventional wisdoms of monetary theory and sparks radically new ideas about monetary policy.Originality/valueThis survey differs from the existing work by taking a broader view of both economics and finance literature. It critically assesses the economic forces driving the global decline of real interest rates through the lens of basic principles and empirical evidence and discusses the merits and limitations of each proposed explanation. The study emphasizes the importance of a better understanding of economic forces driving diverging trends of corporate investment and saving behaviors. It also discusses the implications of the neo-Fisherism and the fiscal theory of price level for monetary policy in a low interest rate environment.

scholarly journals Was the Gibson Paradox for real? A Wicksellian study of the relationship between interest rates and prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Morris Perlman
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Gibson Paradox ◽  
The Relationship

We examine the relationship between prices and interest rates for seven advanced economies in the period up to 1913, emphasising the UK. There is a significant long-run positive relationship between prices and interest rates for the core commodity standard countries. Keynes ([1930] 1971) labelled this positive relationship the ‘Gibson Paradox’. A number of theories have been put forward as possible explanations of the paradox but they do not fit the long-run pattern of the relationship. We find that a formal model in the spirit of Wicksell (1907) and Keynes ([1930] 1971) offers an explanation for the paradox: where the need to stabilise the banking sector's reserve ratio, in the presence of an uncertain ‘natural’ rate, can lead to persistent deviations of the market rate of interest from its ‘natural’ level and consequently long-run swings in the price level.

The reflexive turn in key account management

2014 ◽  
Vol 48 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 2071-2104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Vanharanta ◽  
Alan J.P. Gilchrist ◽  
Andrew D. Pressey ◽  
Peter Lenney
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Success Rates ◽  
Key Account Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Account Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Account ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Uk

Purpose – This study aims to address how and why do formal key account management (KAM) programmes hinder effective KAM management, and how can the problems of formalization in KAM be overcome. Recent empirical studies have reported an unexpected negative relationship between KAM formalization and performance. Design/methodology/approach – An 18-month (340 days) ethnographic investigation was undertaken in the UK-based subsidiary of a major US sports goods manufacturer. This ethnographic evidence was triangulated with 113 in-depth interviews. Findings – This study identifies how and why managerial reflexivity allows a more effectively combining of formal and post-bureaucratic KAM practices. While formal KAM programmes provide a means to initiate, implement and control KAM, they have an unintended consequence of increasing organizational bureaucracy, which may in the long-run hinder the KAM effectiveness. Heightened reflexivity, including “wayfinding”, is identified as a means to overcome many of these challenges, allowing for reflexively combining formal with post-bureaucratic KAM practices. Research limitations/implications – The thesis of this paper starts a new line of reflexive KAM research, which draws theoretical influences from the post-bureaucratic turn in management studies. Practical implications – This study seeks to increase KAM implementation success rates and long-term effectiveness of KAM by conceptualizing the new possibilities offered by reflexive KAM. This study demonstrates how reflexive skills (conceptualized as “KAM wayfinding”) can be deployed during KAM implementation and for its continual improvement. Further, the study identifies how KAM programmes can be used to train organizational learning regarding KAM. Furthermore, this study identifies how and why post-bureaucratic KAM can offer additional benefits after an organization has learned key KAM capabilities. Originality/value – A new line of enquiry is identified: the reflexive-turn in KAM. This theoretical position allows us to identify existing weakness in the extant KAM literature, and to show a practical means to improve the effectiveness of KAM. This concerns, in particular, the importance of managerial reflexivity and KAM wayfinding as a means to balance the strengths and weaknesses of formal and post-bureaucratic KAM.

Reading the past to imagine the future

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 363-366
Author(s):  
Silvia Gherardi
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Qualitative Methods ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Personal Reflection ◽  
Research Topics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distinctive Features ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the ten years of the journal through a personal reflection. Design/methodology/approach – A review of the articles published in the last ten years. Findings – I argue that what has distinguished QROM in these ten years are two distinctive features: reflexivity on practices of qualitative research, and openness to the application of qualitative methods to unusual research topics. Originality/value – The main limit of the paper resides in the subjectivity of the person who has read the articles. Other readers may have different opinions and may have chosen different criteria.

China-EU academic links will face closer scrutiny

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Research Output ◽  
Research Institutions ◽  
Independent Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
National Governments

Significance European academic and research institutions have built increasingly close links with China over the past two decades. By doing so they have increased their incomes and research output, and reduced their costs. Benefits have been emphasised and the potential risks downplayed, both at the institutional and government levels. Impacts National governments will face calls to compensate for the reduction in funding and fees from China. European independent research on China will grow increasingly difficult. Researchers and institutions must prepare for potential Chinese sanctions in the future.

The future of the management of projects in the 2030s

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Walker ◽  
Beverley Lloyd-Walker
Keyword(s):  
Project Managers ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Workplace Environment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Routine Work ◽  
The Future ◽  
Management Project ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore recent literature on the impact of changes in the workplace environment and projected trends through to the year 2030. This allows the authors to identify and discuss what key trends are changing the nature of project organising work. The authors aim to identify what knowledge and which skills, attributes and experiences will be most likely valued and needed in 2030. Design/methodology/approach This paper is essentially a reflective review and is explorative in nature. The authors focus on several recent reports published in the UK and Australia that discuss the way that the future workforce will adapt and prepare for radical changes in the workplace environment. The authors focus on project organising work and the changing workplace knowledge, skills, attributes and experience (KSAE) needs of those working in project teams in 2030 and beyond. The authors draw upon existing KSAE literature including findings from a study undertaken into the KSAEs of project alliance managers working in a highly collaborative form of project delivery. Findings The analysis suggests that there is good and bad news about project workers prospects in 2030. The good news is that for those working in non-routine roles their work will be more interesting and rewarding than is the case for today. The bad news is that for workers in routine work roles, they will be replaced by advanced digital technology. Research limitations/implications Few, if any, papers published in the project organising literature speculate about what this discipline may look like or what KSAEs will be valued and needed. Practical implications This paper opens up a debate about how project management/project organising work will be undertaken in future and what skills and expertise will be required. It also prompts project managers to think about how they will craft their careers in 2030 in response to expected work environment demands. This will have professional and learning implications. Social implications The issue of the future workplace environment is highly relevant to the social context. Originality/value This paper is about a projected future some 12 years onward from today. It bridges a gap in any future debate about how project organising jobs may change and how they will be delivered in the 2030s.

Macroeconomic shocks, fragility and home financing in Malaysia: can rental index be the answer?

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosylin Mohd Yusof ◽  
Farrell Hazsan Usman ◽  
Akhmad Affandi Mahfudz ◽  
Ahmad Suki Arif
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Rental Rate ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Conventional And Islamic Banks

Purpose This study aims to investigate the interactions among macroeconomic variable shocks, banking fragility and home financing provided by conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia. Identifying the causes of financial instability and the effects of macroeconomic shocks can help to foil the onset of future financial turbulence. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag bound-testing cointegration approach, impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decomposition are used in this study to unravel the long-run and short-run dynamics among the selected macroeconomic variables and amount of home financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. In addition, the study uses Granger causality tests to investigate the short-run causalities among the selected variables to further understand the impact of one macroeconomic shock to Islamic and conventional home financing. Findings This study provides evidence that macroeconomic shocks have different long-run and short-run effects on amount of home financing offered by conventional and Islamic banks. Both in the long run and short run, home financing provided by Islamic banks is more linked to real sector economy and thus is more stable as compared to home financing provided by conventional banks. The Granger causality test reveals that only gross domestic product (GDP), Kuala Lumpur Syariah Index (KLSI)/Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and house price index (HPI) are found to have a statistically significant causal relationship with home financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. Unlike the case of Islamic banks, conventional home financing is found to have a unidirectional causality with interest rates. Research limitations/implications This study has focused on analyzing the macroeconomic shocks on home financing. However, this study does not assess the impact of financial deregulation and enhanced information technology on amount of financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. In addition, it is not within the ambit of this present study to examine the effects of agency costs and information asymmetry. Practical implications The analysis of cointegration and IRFs exhibits that in the long run and short run, home financing provided by Islamic banks are more linked to real sector economy like GDP and House Prices (HPI) and therefore more resilient to economic vulnerabilities as compared to home financing provided by conventional banks. However, in the long run, both conventional and Islamic banks are more susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates. The results of the study suggest that monetary policy ramifications to improve banking fragility should focus on stabilizing interest rates or finding an alternative that is free from interest. Social implications Because interest plays a significant role in pricing of home loans, the potential of an alternative such as rental rate is therefore timely and worth the effort to investigate further. Therefore, Islamic banks can explore the possibility of pricing home financing based on rental rate as proposed in this study. Originality/value This paper examines the unresolved issues in Islamic home financing where Islamic banks still benchmark their products especially home financing, to interest rates in dual banking system such as in the case of Malaysia. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, studies conducted in this area are meager and therefore is imperative to be examined.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document