Do election polls increase individual understanding of politics?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Ching-Hsing Wang ◽  
Dennis Lu-Chung Weng
Keyword(s):  
Election Polls

US election polls: a quick postmortem

Significance ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-5
Author(s):  
Ole J. Forsberg
Keyword(s):  
Election Polls

Regieren nach oder getrieben von Umfrageergebnissen? Wie Bundes- und Landtagsabgeordnete die mediale Umfrageberichterstattung wahrnehmen

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-28
Author(s):  
Catharina Vögele ◽  
Ursula Alexandra Ohliger
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Large Majority ◽  
German State ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Members Of Parliament ◽  
Perceived Benefit ◽  
Legal Restrictions ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

This study analyzes how German political actors at the federal and state levels perceive the opportunities and risks of political poll reporting . A quantitative online survey of Members of the Bundestag and all German state parliaments shows that their perceptions are ambiva­lent: Although they all express great or very great interest in opinion polls, they have ambivalent views on how useful opinion research is for their political activities . With regard to the perceived benefit of poll reporting, the commissioning of opinion polls, and the desired frequency of media poll reporting, differences between the members of parliament surveyed are evident . When analyzing the internal and external use of the results of opinion polls our findings suggest that they are primarily used to strategically plan election cam­paigns and to identify popular topics . A large majority of members of parliament agree on the possible effects of poll reporting on voters . They view these effects predominantly criti­cally and are in favor of legal restrictions on publishing election polls .

scholarly journals The 2012 US Presidential Election Polls And Stock Returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamir Levy ◽  
Joseph Yagil
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
Election Poll ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
The Relationship

<p class="ber"><span lang="EN-GB">This study investigates the relationship between daily US presidential election poll results and stock returns. The sample consists of the daily presidential election polls published in the New-York Times for the period between May 31 and November 5, 2012. They include the percentage of support for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. The findings indicate that stock returns are positively related to the poll results that support the candidate favored to win the election.</span></p>

Election Polls

2017 ◽  
pp. 177-205
Author(s):  
Jelke Bethlehem
Keyword(s):  
Election Polls

scholarly journals Asking about social circles improves election predictions even with many political parties

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wandi Bruine de Bruin ◽  
Mirta Galesic ◽  
Rasmus A. Bååth ◽  
Jochem de Bresser ◽  
Lars Hall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
General Election ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Social Circle ◽  
The Social ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
Voting Intentions

Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants’ own voting intentions. In Nature HumanBehaviour, we reported that we could improve predictions of the 2016 US and 2017 Frenchpresidential elections by asking participants how they thought their social circles would vote. Apotential concern is that the social circle question might predict less well in elections with largernumbers of political options, because it becomes harder to keep track of how social contacts planto vote. However, we have now found that the social circle question even performs better thanthe own intention question, in predictions of two elections with many political parties: The Netherlands’2017 general election and the Swedish 2018 general election.

Electoral Polling and Reporting in Africa

2020 ◽  
pp. 697-714
Author(s):  
Adebayo Fayoyin
Keyword(s):  
Pivotal Role ◽  
The Political ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Opinion Polling ◽  
Media Agenda ◽  
Data Journalism ◽  
Continued Use ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Opinion polling during elections plays a pivotal role in influencing the political and media agenda, and can potentially affect voting behaviour. However, evidence from various countries indicates that electoral polls have been characterised by contradictions and contentious debates which undermine their usefulness in democratic processes. The digital age has also led to a mushrooming of online polls, but some of them are of dubious quality. Thus, the chapter questions the continued use of electoral polls in multiparty politics in Africa. It argues that as a result of the inherent political and electoral volatility in many African countries, the utility of opinion polls need to be reconsidered. The paper recommends strategies for addressing the identified pitfalls, including increased professionalization of opinion polling, voter education on the limitations of pre-election polls and stronger appreciation of data journalism for media professionals. Stricter regulations, such as the embargo of election opinion polling may also be considered in different contexts.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document