Significance levels and confidence intervals for permutation tests

1983 ◽  
Vol 16 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 161-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.D. John ◽  
J. Robinson
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marshall A. Taylor

Coefficient plots are a popular tool for visualizing regression estimates. The appeal of these plots is that they visualize confidence intervals around the estimates and generally center the plot around zero, meaning that any estimate that crosses zero is statistically non-significant at at least the alpha-level around which the confidence intervals are constructed. For models with statistical significance levels determined via randomization models of inference and for which there is no standard error or confidence intervals for the estimate itself, these plots appear less useful. In this paper, I illustrate a variant of the coefficient plot for regression models with p-values constructed using permutation tests. These visualizations plot each estimate's p-value and its associated confidence interval in relation to a specified alpha-level. These plots can help the analyst interpret and report both the statistical and substantive significance of their models. Illustrations are provided using a nonprobability sample of activists and participants at a 1962 anti-Communism school.


Author(s):  
Marshall A. Taylor

Coefficient plots are a popular tool for visualizing regression estimates. The appeal of these plots is that they visualize confidence intervals around the estimates and generally center the plot around zero, meaning that any estimate that crosses zero is statistically nonsignificant at least at the alpha level around which the confidence intervals are constructed. For models with statistical significance levels determined via randomization models of inference and for which there is no standard error or confidence intervals for the estimate itself, these plots appear less useful. In this article, I illustrate a variant of the coefficient plot for regression models with p-values constructed using permutation tests. These visualizations plot each estimate’s p-value and its associated confidence interval in relation to a specified alpha level. These plots can help the analyst interpret and report the statistical and substantive significances of their models. I illustrate using a nonprobability sample of activists and participants at a 1962 anticommunism school.


2009 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 545-557 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAMES J. FETZER

AbstractThis paper examines how to make inferences from econometric models prepared for antidumping, countervailing duty, and safeguard investigations. Analysis of these models has typically entailed drawing inferences from point estimates that are significantly different from zero at a fixed level of confidence. This paper suggests a more flexible approach of drawing inferences using confidence intervals at various significance levels and reporting p-values for the relevant test of injury. Use of confidence intervals and p-values to identify insights and data patterns would have more impact on USITC trade remedy determinations than definitive conclusions about injury based on whether estimates are statistically significant.


2009 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiping Bai ◽  
Albinas Gailius

As high‐performance Portland cement (PC), fly ash (FA) and metakaolin (MK) concrete have been developed in wide applications, it has growing interest in optimizing and predicting consistency of fresh PC‐FA‐MK concrete for efficient and practical design and construction. This paper presents statistical models for predicting the consistency of concrete incorporating PC, FA and MK from the experimental results of standard consistency tests. They reflect the effect of variations of pozzolanic replacement materials including FA and MK at graduated replacement levels of up to 40% and 15%, respectively. The predictions produced are compared with the experimental results of consistency of concrete blends. Models show that they can be used to predict the consistency parameters including slump, compacting factor and Vebe time with a good degree of accuracy in a wide range of FA‐MK blends. Design guidelines for evaluating consistency parameters are tentatively recommended along with their confidence intervals for prediction limits at 5% significance levels. Santrauka Straipsnyje aprašyti cementbetonio mišinio su lakiaisiais pelenais ir metakaolinu konsistencijos (slankumo, sutankinamumo, Vebe rodiklio) tyrimai. Parenkant betono mišinių sudėtis buvo naudojami lakieji pelenai, kurie pakeisdavo iki 40 % portlandcemenčio ir metakaolinas, kurio buvo dedama iki 15 % cemento masės. Atitinkamai buvo keičiami ir portlandcemenčio kiekiai. Remiantis tyrimų rezultatais, pasiūlyti statistiniai modeliai įvairių sudėčių betono mišinio konsistencijai prognozuoti. Palyginus prognozuojamus ir eksperimentinių tyrimų betono mišinio konsistencijos rodiklius nustatyta, kad jie labai gerai koreliuoja. Todėl pasiūlytus statistinius prognozavimo modelius galima taikyti betonų technologijos praktikoje.


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