Time-to-Event Analysis with Unknown Time Origins via Longitudinal Biomarker Registration

Author(s):  
Tianhao Wang ◽  
Sarah J. Ratcliffe ◽  
Wensheng Guo
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bethany E. Higgins ◽  
Giovanni Montesano ◽  
Alison M. Binns ◽  
David P. Crabb

AbstractIn age-related macular degeneration (AMD) research, dark adaptation has been found to be a promising functional measurement. In more severe cases of AMD, dark adaptation cannot always be recorded within a maximum allowed time for the test (~ 20–30 min). These data are recorded either as censored data-points (data capped at the maximum test time) or as an estimated recovery time based on the trend observed from the data recorded within the maximum recording time. Therefore, dark adaptation data can have unusual attributes that may not be handled by standard statistical techniques. Here we show time-to-event analysis is a more powerful method for analysis of rod-intercept time data in measuring dark adaptation. For example, at 80% power (at α = 0.05) sample sizes were estimated to be 20 and 61 with uncapped (uncensored) and capped (censored) data using a standard t-test; these values improved to 12 and 38 when using the proposed time-to-event analysis. Our method can accommodate both skewed data and censored data points and offers the advantage of significantly reducing sample sizes when planning studies where this functional test is an outcome measure. The latter is important because designing trials and studies more efficiently equates to newer treatments likely being examined more efficiently.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sameera Senanayake ◽  
Nicholas Graves ◽  
Helen Healy ◽  
Keshwar Baboolal ◽  
Adrian Barnett ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Economic-evaluations using decision analytic models such as Markov-models (MM), and discrete-event-simulations (DES) are high value adds in allocating resources. The choice of modelling method is critical because an inappropriate model yields results that could lead to flawed decision making. The aim of this study was to compare cost-effectiveness when MM and DES were used to model results of transplanting a lower-quality kidney versus remaining waitlisted for a kidney. Methods Cost-effectiveness was assessed using MM and DES. We used parametric survival models to estimate the time-dependent transition probabilities of MM and distribution of time-to-event in DES. MMs were simulated in 12 and 6 monthly cycles, out to five and 20-year time horizon. Results DES model output had a close fit to the actual data. Irrespective of the modelling method, the cycle length of MM or the time horizon, transplanting a low-quality kidney as compared to remaining waitlisted was the dominant strategy. However, there were discrepancies in costs, effectiveness and net monetary benefit (NMB) among different modelling methods. The incremental NMB of the MM in the 6-months cycle lengths was a closer fit to the incremental NMB of the DES. The gap in the fit of the two cycle lengths to DES output reduced as the time horizon increased. Conclusion Different modelling methods were unlikely to influence the decision to accept a lower quality kidney transplant or remain waitlisted on dialysis. Both models produced similar results when time-dependant transition probabilities are used, most notable with shorter cycle lengths and longer time-horizons.


Author(s):  
Jin K. Kim ◽  
Mitchell Shiff ◽  
Michael E. Chua ◽  
Fadi Zu’bi ◽  
Jessica M. Ming ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-263
Author(s):  
Het Patel ◽  
Nikhil Agrawal ◽  
Voravech Nissaisorakarn ◽  
Ridhi Gupta ◽  
Francesca Cardarelli

Malignancy is the third major cause of death among transplant recipients. Patient and kidney transplant outcomes after the diagnosis of malignancy are not well described. We reviewed incidences and outcomes of colorectal, lung, PTLD, and renal malignancy after transplant among patients who received a transplant from January 2000 to December 2018 using the UNOS/OPTN database. Incidence of each malignancy was measured at 5 years and 10 years of transplant. The Kaplan–Meier curve was used for time-to-event analysis (graft and patient outcomes). Additionally, we sought to identify the causes of graft failure among these recipients. We found that 12,764 (5.5%) patients suffered malignancy, excluding squamous and basal cell skin carcinoma after transplant. During the first 5 years of transplant, incidence of colorectal, lung, PTLD, and renal malignancies was 2.99, 9.21, 15.61, and 8.55 per 10,000 person-years, respectively. Rates of graft failure were 10.3%, 7.6%, 19.9%, and 18.8%, respectively, among these patients at 5 years. Mortality rate was highest among patients who suffered lung malignancy (84%), followed by colorectal (61.5%), PTLD (49.1%), and renal (35.5%) at 5 years after diagnosis of malignancy. In conclusion, kidney transplant recipients diagnosed with lung malignancy have the lowest graft survival, compared to PTLD, colorectal, and renal malignancy. PTLD has the highest incidence rate in the first 5 years of transplant.


2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Atsushi Fukuda ◽  
Keishi Fujiwara ◽  
Shinya Morita ◽  
Kimiko Hoshino ◽  
Hiroko Yanagi ◽  
...  

Plant Methods ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hector Camargo Alvarez ◽  
Melba Salazar-Gutiérrez ◽  
Diana Zapata ◽  
Markus Keller ◽  
Gerrit Hoogenboom
Keyword(s):  

Nutrients ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulla Uusitalo ◽  
Carin Andren Aronsson ◽  
Xiang Liu ◽  
Kalle Kurppa ◽  
Jimin Yang ◽  
...  

Probiotics are linked to positive regulatory effects on the immune system. The aim of the study was to examine the association between the exposure of probiotics via dietary supplements or via infant formula by the age of 1 year and the development of celiac disease autoimmunity (CDA) and celiac disease among a cohort of 6520 genetically susceptible children. Use of probiotics during the first year of life was reported by 1460 children. Time-to-event analysis was used to examine the associations. Overall exposure of probiotics during the first year of life was not associated with either CDA (n = 1212) (HR 1.15; 95%CI 0.99, 1.35; p = 0.07) or celiac disease (n = 455) (HR 1.11; 95%CI 0.86, 1.43; p = 0.43) when adjusting for known risk factors. Intake of probiotic dietary supplements, however, was associated with a slightly increased risk of CDA (HR 1.18; 95%CI 1.00, 1.40; p = 0.043) compared to children who did not get probiotics. It was concluded that the overall exposure of probiotics during the first year of life was not associated with CDA or celiac disease in children at genetic risk.


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