Special issue: Business cycle theory as a basis for economic policy

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 755-759
Author(s):  
Pascal Bridel ◽  
Muriel Dal Pont Legrand
2019 ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
A. V. Golubev ◽  
E. V. Ivanova

The presented study examines the economic nature of cycles and its key component — crisis — the initial phase of a business cycle.Aim. The study aims to determine the effect of business cycles and their alternation on the Russian economy.Tasks. The authors examine models that explain the functioning of medium-term business cycles; identify the major causes of financial and economic crises at the turn of the cycle; determine the consequences of modern business cycles for Russia in terms of its macroeconomic indicators.Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition to examine the concept of business cycles and determine the causes and consequences of modern crises for the country’s economy.Results. Among the existing types of business cycles there are medium-term cycles, a global turn in which over the last three decades is caused primarily by the problems in the financial sector of the US economy. A comparative analysis of the current medium-term cycle and the previous one makes it possible to determine their quantitative and qualitative implications for the Russian economy. The 2008–2009 turn in business cycles pointed at the low efficiency of the Russian economic policy at the time, which had achieved great results during the previous cycle. The average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Russia decreased not only in comparison between the two business cycles, but also in comparison with the global GDP growth rates. The modern world is currently in the final phase of the business cycle after a sustained growth, while the state of the Russian economy has long been characterized by stagnation in many industries, which poses a threat to the economic stability of the state on the verge of a new crisis.Conclusions. Examination of the concepts of business cycles as recurring periods of fluctuating business activity makes it possible not only to identify external and internal causes of economic instability during a cycle and at the turn of a cycle, but also to analyze the state of the economy in different phases of a cycle to improve the efficiency of the national economic policy.


2008 ◽  
Vol 53 (177) ◽  
pp. 30-58
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Prascevic

The problems faced by the American economy in the second half of 2007, which intensified in 2008, have once again asked economic science, and even more so economic policy, questions relating to business cycles - the reasons for cyclical fluctuations, the character of business cycles and, naturally, economic policy measures that can be implemented to alleviate and overcome an economic recession. Since the 1970s, business cycle theories have been intensively developed - ranging from monetary theories, developed within monetarism and the first phase of New Classical Macroeconomics, to the real business cycle theory of New Classical Macroeconomics. Consequently, the triggers for the beginning of a cycle can be monetary (monetary theories) or real in the form of technological shocks (real business cycles). In essence economic policy conducted since the 1970s, has rejected the Keynesian explanations of the functioning of the economic system, and thus the policy of aggregate demand management. However, the measures that are now being implemented in the USA point to a return to Keynesianism. This refers, above all, to attempts to compensate for the inefficiency of monetary policy with fiscal expansion. All three psychological propensities (propensity to consume, propensity to invest and liquidity preference) in Keynes's theory and applied in Keynesian economic policy, are still the significant determinants of monetary and fiscal policies. The return to Keynesianism points to the depth of the crisis faced by the USA, but also confirms the vitality of Keynesian economics and affirms the view that - although Keynes wished to present his theory as being "general" - it is actually the theory of economic depression.


2014 ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Idrisov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev

The paper analyzes the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labor and capital markets reforms, productivity growth.


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