scholarly journals The return to keynesianism in overcoming cyclical fluctuations?

2008 ◽  
Vol 53 (177) ◽  
pp. 30-58
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Prascevic
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Economic Science ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
The Usa

The problems faced by the American economy in the second half of 2007, which intensified in 2008, have once again asked economic science, and even more so economic policy, questions relating to business cycles - the reasons for cyclical fluctuations, the character of business cycles and, naturally, economic policy measures that can be implemented to alleviate and overcome an economic recession. Since the 1970s, business cycle theories have been intensively developed - ranging from monetary theories, developed within monetarism and the first phase of New Classical Macroeconomics, to the real business cycle theory of New Classical Macroeconomics. Consequently, the triggers for the beginning of a cycle can be monetary (monetary theories) or real in the form of technological shocks (real business cycles). In essence economic policy conducted since the 1970s, has rejected the Keynesian explanations of the functioning of the economic system, and thus the policy of aggregate demand management. However, the measures that are now being implemented in the USA point to a return to Keynesianism. This refers, above all, to attempts to compensate for the inefficiency of monetary policy with fiscal expansion. All three psychological propensities (propensity to consume, propensity to invest and liquidity preference) in Keynes's theory and applied in Keynesian economic policy, are still the significant determinants of monetary and fiscal policies. The return to Keynesianism points to the depth of the crisis faced by the USA, but also confirms the vitality of Keynesian economics and affirms the view that - although Keynes wished to present his theory as being "general" - it is actually the theory of economic depression.

Some Aspects of Business Cycle Theory

2019 ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
A. V. Golubev ◽  
E. V. Ivanova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The State ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Low Efficiency

The presented study examines the economic nature of cycles and its key component — crisis — the initial phase of a business cycle.Aim. The study aims to determine the effect of business cycles and their alternation on the Russian economy.Tasks. The authors examine models that explain the functioning of medium-term business cycles; identify the major causes of financial and economic crises at the turn of the cycle; determine the consequences of modern business cycles for Russia in terms of its macroeconomic indicators.Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition to examine the concept of business cycles and determine the causes and consequences of modern crises for the country’s economy.Results. Among the existing types of business cycles there are medium-term cycles, a global turn in which over the last three decades is caused primarily by the problems in the financial sector of the US economy. A comparative analysis of the current medium-term cycle and the previous one makes it possible to determine their quantitative and qualitative implications for the Russian economy. The 2008–2009 turn in business cycles pointed at the low efficiency of the Russian economic policy at the time, which had achieved great results during the previous cycle. The average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Russia decreased not only in comparison between the two business cycles, but also in comparison with the global GDP growth rates. The modern world is currently in the final phase of the business cycle after a sustained growth, while the state of the Russian economy has long been characterized by stagnation in many industries, which poses a threat to the economic stability of the state on the verge of a new crisis.Conclusions. Examination of the concepts of business cycles as recurring periods of fluctuating business activity makes it possible not only to identify external and internal causes of economic instability during a cycle and at the turn of a cycle, but also to analyze the state of the economy in different phases of a cycle to improve the efficiency of the national economic policy.

scholarly journals Business Cycles in Algerian Economy: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-100
Author(s):  
Abdelsalam BOUKHEROUFA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

The main objective of this paper is to highlight the most important shocks that drives the business cycles in the Algerian economy. Using Bayesian estimation techniques, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) using four time series of the Algerian macroeconomics. Through this estimated model, which succeeded in capturing the dynamics of the Algerian economy data, we found three main results: First, the main causes of business cycle fluctuations in the Algerian economy are aggregate demand shocks. Second, the of government spending shock play the most important role in output fluctuations. Third, empirical results show evidences of procyclical in government spending policies.

Albert Aftalion's Macrodynamic Theory of Endogenous Business Cycles

1997 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecile Dangel ◽  
Alain Raybaut
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Endogenous Business Cycles ◽  
Careful Specification ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Monetary Business Cycles ◽  
Desperate Attempt

Albert Aftalion is certainly one of the best known French economists of the first half of the twentieth century. The influence he exerted during his lifetime over the scientific community of his homeland was considerable, and he was promptly acknowledged abroad to be one of the leading theorists of the business cycle. While he is best known as one of the inventors of the acceleration principle (Haberler 1937), we will focus on Aftalion's endogenous explanation of non-monetary business cycles and, more specifically, on the theoretical framework supporting Les crises périodiques de surproduction. Though this work can be seen as a mere “(desperate) attempt” to reconcile the law of markets with general overproduction (Abraham-Frois 1987), we argue instead that Aftalion's failure to construct an equilibrium theory of aggregate overproduction can be traced back to his inadequate treatment of aggregate demand. According to him, long roundabout processes are what generate cyclical fluctuations within a setting in which commodities produced and brought to the market always find an outlet. In other words, the law of markets implies market clearing where declines in prices instead of involuntary stock-building occur in the event of a crisis. How demand behaves in such a setting requires careful specification, which is precisely what is lacking in Aftalion's model.

scholarly journals The Phenomenon of Speculative Bubble in the Light of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory

Equilibrium ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jarosław Cholewiński
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Credit Expansion ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Speculative Bubble ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle

The article presents the modern interpretation of the Austrian business cycle theory and the look at the phenomenon of economic bubble through the lens of that theory. The aim of the article is to answer the question ‘What is the main cause of economic bubbles’. The author suggests that it is a depiction which integrates cyclical fluctuations induced by credit expansion with the phenomenon of speculative bubble. Capital-based macroeconomics proposed by Garrison can become a core of universal economic theorizing. The model presented by the author shows how credit expansion that decreases interest rate of credits below its natural level causes medium-run discoordination of production structure. Disruptions that lies in the strong fluctuations of capital goods during a cyclical episode can be understand as consecutive stages of speculative bubble. In the paper the author conducted a historical analysis of data to investigate whether the dramatic increase in house prices that occurred in the United States after the year 2000 could have been triggered by credit expansion. The author summarizes that such hypothesis can’t be rejected.

scholarly journals A Reassessment of Real Business Cycle Theory

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 177-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen R. McGrattan ◽  
Edward C. Prescott
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Intangible Capital ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Intangible Investments

During the downturn of 2008-2009, output and hours fell significantly, but labor productivity rose. These facts have led many to conclude that there is a significant deviation between observations and current macrotheories that assume business cycles are driven, at least in part, by fluctuations in total factor productivities of firms. We show that once investment in intangible capital is included in the analysis, there is no inconsistency. Measured labor productivity rises if the fall in output is underestimated; this occurs when there are large unmeasured intangible investments. Microevidence suggests that these investments are large and cyclically important.

scholarly journals Keynesian Supply Shocks and Hayekian Secondary Deflations

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Engelhardt
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Demand Shock ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Employment Dynamics ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Supply Shock ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle

In response to the COVID-19 lockdown policies, Guerrieri et al. (2020) developed a new concept: the Keynesian supply shock. A Keynesian supply shock is an aggregate supply shock that leads to an even larger aggregate demand shock. This paper suggests that Keynesian supply shocks are very similar to the secondary deflations suggested by Hayek (1931), and US data from the 2007–09 financial crisis show that these concepts may help to explain employment dynamics in the midst of a crisis. This fact implies that long-standing policy advice based on Austrian business cycle theory would be useful in responding to Keynesian supply shocks.

A brief note on economic recessions, banking reform and the future of capitalism

2021 ◽  
pp. 289-298
Author(s):  
Jesús Huerta de Soto
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
English Edition ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Fractional Reserve ◽  
The Future ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle

In my book «Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles» (1st Spanish Edition 1992, 2nd English Edition 2009) I present a detailed analysis of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Now I will concentrate on the financial crisis and the current worldwide economic recession as one of the most challenging problems we must now cope with and the way in which the Austrian Business Cycle Theory can help us to understand its causes and the best approach to economic recovery. Having witnessed the intellectual and practical defeat of socialism specially during the last decades of the twentieth century, in my opinion one of the main challenges that still remains for the future of Capitalism is the urgent need to privatize money by dismantling the organ of central monetary planning: the Central Bank. In other words, real Socialism, represented by state money, Central banks and financial administrative regulations, is still in force in the monetary and credit sectors of the so called free market economies. As a result of this fact we experience regularly in the area of money and credit all the negative consequences established by the Theorem of the Impossibility of Socialism discovered by those distinguished members of the Austrian School of Economics Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek. Specifically, the central planners of state money are unable to know, to follow and to control the changes in both the demand and supply of money. Furthermore, the whole financial system is based on the legal privilege given by the state to private bankers to act with a fractional reserve ratio in relation with the demand deposits they receive from their clients. As a result of this privilege, private bankers are not true financial intermediaries, but are mainly creators of deposits materializing in credit expansions. These credit expansions are artificial and do not correspond to any previous increases in the voluntary savings of the citizens. In this way the current fractional reserve banking system, tends to worsen and amplify the systemic intertemporal distortions and investment misallocations that the macroeconomic planners working for central banks induce in the production structure of the whole real economy. These distortions manifest themselves in the stages of financial bubbles, economic boom, overall malinvestment and afterwards in the stages of financial crisis, deep economic recession and unemployment.

Tugan-Baranovsky as a Pioneer of Trade Cycle Analysis

2001 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 443-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Barnett
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
National Income ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Trade Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Analysis

Mikhail Ivanovich Tugan-Baranovsky (1865–1919) has not unjustly been calle the greatest Russian economist of all time (Jasny 1972, p. 159). This neglecte the fact that he was born near Kharkov and towards the end of his life came to see the Ukraine as his homeland, but the evaluation itself is not so far from the truth. However, opinion about the precise importance of Tugan-Baranovsky work to the development of trade cycle analysis has varied widely. J. M. Keynes and A. H. Hansen were both highly respectful of Tugan's contribution. For example, in the Treatise on Money, Keynes wrote in regards to business cycle theory that he was “in strong sympathy with the school of writers … of which Tugan-Baranovski was the first and most original” (Keynes 1930, vol. 2, p. 100 In his 1951 work, Business Cycles and National Income, Hansen was enthusiastic describing Tugan as “cutting his way though the jungle to a new outlook” (Hansen 1951, p. 281). This suggests that some aspects of both British an American Keynesianism might have originated in Tugan's work, or at least bee influenced by it. W. W. Rostow was also impressed by Tugan's approach, statin that it “took business cycle analysis some distance beyond Juglar and Marx” (Rostow 1990, p. 261).

Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 577-594
Author(s):  
Estela Bee Dagum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The Other ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Nominal Shocks

This is a brief introduction to the special issue on “New Developments in Modelling and Estimation of Economic Cycles” . The concept and definition of economic and business cycles are discussed together with two main schools of thought, the Keynesian and the neoclassical. Until the Keynesian revolution in mainstream economics in the wake of the Great Depression, classical and neoclassical explanations were the mainstream explanation of economic cycles; following the Keynesian revolution, neoclassical macroeconomics was largely rejected. There has been some resurgence of neoclassical approaches in the form of real business cycle (RBC) theory. Real business cycle theory is a class of macroeconomic model in which business cycle fluctuations to a large extent can be accounted for by real (in contrast to nominal) shocks. In a broad sense , there have been two ways by which economic and business cycles have been studied, one analyzing complete cycles and the other, studying the behavior of the economic indicators during incomplete phases by comparing current contractions or expansions whith corresponding phases in the past in order to assess current economic conditions. Two different methodologies have been applied for current economic analysis, the parametric one, that makes use of filters based on models, such as ARIMA and State Space models , and the other based on nonparametric digital filtering. Some of the invited papers of this issue deal with this second approach.

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