scholarly journals The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 522-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volkan Ülke ◽  
Serdar Varlik ◽  
M. Hakan Berument
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Growth Volatility

scholarly journals TRADE AND FINANCIAL OPENNESS, AND OUTPUT GROWTH VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-30
Author(s):  
O. S. AIGHEYISI ◽  
A. H. ISIKHUEMEN
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Financial Openness ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Growth Volatility

This study investigates the effect of trade openness and financial openness on output growth volatility in Nigeria using annual time series data that span the period from 1970 to 2015. Output growth volatility is generated using an EGARCH (1,1) process, and this was regressed on indices or measures of trade openness, financial openness (using the Chinn-Ito index), oil price, financial development and exchange rate. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and error correction modeling was employed for the analysis. The empirical evidence indicates that trade openness and financial openness exacerbate output growth volatility in Nigeria in the long run. Favourable crude oil price is found to play significant role in stabilizing output growth in the long run. However, the short run effect of trade openness on growth volatility is negative, implying that in the short run trade openness plays some role in reducing output growth volatility. The short run effect of financial openness on output growth volatility is also negative, but not statistically significant. Further evidence from the study is that financial development and currency depreciation also reduce growth volatility in the short run. Based on the empirical evidence, the paper recommends, as measures to reduce output growth volatility (or stabilize output growth) in Nigeria, cautious liberalization of the nation’s economy, efforts by the government to develop the nation’s financial system to expand its credit extension/provision capacity, and prevention (by the monetary authority) using appropriate policy actions, of undue appreciation of the domestic currency (the naira).    

scholarly journals Investigation on the Causal Relationship between Inflation, Output Growth and their Uncertainties in Romania

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-89
Author(s):  
Carmen Pintilescu ◽  
Mircea Asandului ◽  
Elena-Daniela Viorică ◽  
Dănuţ-Vasile Jemna
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Growth Volatility

AbstractBased on monthly-recorded data for the 1990-2014 period related to output growth and inflation, we use heteroskedastic models in order to estimate the nominal and real uncertainty in Romania. Real uncertainty is derived from output growth volatility and nominal uncertainty is derived from inflation volatility. Of the 12 possible hypotheses regarding causal relationships between output growth, inflation, nominal uncertainty and real uncertainty, we consider 7 hypotheses for which we find strong theoretical arguments and empirical evidence in literature. In order to ensure the robustness of the results, the Granger-causality tests are performed for 4, 8 and 12 lags, which are then used to test 7 economic hypotheses.

MONEY SUPPLY VOLATILITY AND THE MACROECONOMY

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1392-1402
Author(s):  
Apostolos Serletis ◽  
Libo Xu
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Growth Volatility ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
Structural Vector

This paper extends the ongoing literature on the macroeconomic effects of money supply volatility. We use monthly data for the USA and a bivariate, Markov switching, structural vector error correction model that is modified to accommodate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity-in-mean errors to isolate the effects of money growth volatility on output growth. The model allows us to study how monetary uncertainty affects economic growth across different macroeconomic regimes.

scholarly journals Output Growth Volatility and Remittances: The Case of ECOWAS

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Deekor Leelee Nwibari ◽  
Gbanador Clever A.
Keyword(s):  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Growth Volatility

The study on output growth volatility and remittances: the case of ECOWAS is to determine the impact of remittances on output growth volatility. To achieve this, the study adopts the theory of altruism which posits that the migrant derives a positive utility from the well-being of the family left behind. A panel annual data set covering 15 remittances recipient ECOWAS member nations for the period ranging from 1995 to 2015 were utilized. The study utilizes a panel system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique and both the static and dynamic panel estimation approaches to examine the impact of remittances on growth volatility. Results show that remittances appear to be inducing output volatility in ECOWAS member countries. As a result, the study suggests among others, the encouragement of policies that will foster increasing influx of remittances to the region by the concern authorities in order to stabilize volatility of any form in the region.

Does FDI Dampen or Magnify Output Growth Volatility in the ECOWAS Region?

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazeem Bello Ajide ◽  
Oluwanbepelumi Esther Osode
Keyword(s):  
Output Growth ◽  
Growth Volatility

Output Growth Volatility and Remittances

Economica ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 78 (311) ◽  
pp. 480-500 ◽  
Author(s):  
MATTEO BUGAMELLI ◽  
FRANCESCO PATERNÒ
Keyword(s):  
Output Growth ◽  
Growth Volatility

The role of institutions in output growth volatility-financial development nexus

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 910-927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Dolapo Raheem ◽  
Kazeem Bello Ajide ◽  
Oluwatosin Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Volatility

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of institutions in the financial development-output growth volatility nexus. It provides new channels through which financial development can dampen the output growth volatilities of the countries under investigation. Design/methodology/approach A comprehensive data set for 71 countries covering the period from 1996 to 2012 and the System GMM approach were used. The choice of the methodology is to deal with endogeneity issues such as measurement errors, reverse causality among other issues. Findings A number of findings were emanated from the empirical analysis. First, the estimates provided evidence of the volatility-reducing effect of financial development. Second, institutions do not have the same reducing influence on output growth volatility. Third, the interaction of financial development and institutions showed that the output volatility reduction arising from financial development is enhanced in the presence of improved institutions. Research limitations/implications The policy implications derived from this study are in twofolds: first, it is important for policymakers to formulate policies that would ensure and enhance the development of the financial sectors, since its importance in minimizing output volatility has been established. Second, institutional quality should be developed so as to further enhance the growth volatility-reducing influence of financial development. Particularly, institutions should be improved along the multiple dimensions captured in the analysis. Originality/value To the best knowledge, the novelty of this study to the literature is the introduction of institutions, which is hypothesized to increase the dampening effects of financial development in output growth volatility.

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