Short-horizon return predictability and oil prices

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1909-1934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Casassus ◽  
Freddy Higuera
2007 ◽  
Vol 31 (10) ◽  
pp. 3102-3124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Egon Kalotay ◽  
Philip Gray ◽  
Samantha Sin

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 122-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Chung ◽  
Karel Hrazdil ◽  
Nattavut Suwanyangyuan

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the information disclosure quantity on the pricing efficiency of stocks. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of large and actively traded Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the authors utilize annual reports filed on system for electronic document analysis and retrieval (SEDAR) between 2003 and 2013 to estimate the amount of publicly available information and find that the length and size of annual reports are important determinants of short-horizon return predictability from historical order flows, which is an inverse indicator of market efficiency. Findings The results show that longer and larger annual reports are associated with reduced information asymmetry, lower cost of immediacy, higher trading activity, and an overall improvement in the efficiency of price discovery. The results are robust to the inclusion of controls for various determinants of short-horizon return predictability, such as trading costs, volatility, informational effects and other firm-specific characteristics. Research Limitations/implications Collectively, the findings provide empirical support for the benefits of detailed corporate disclosure in Canada. Originality/value This is the first study to utilize the short-horizon return predictability approach to evaluate the efficiency of price discovery in relation to the amount of information disclosure.


2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-54
Author(s):  
Erman Denny Arfianto ◽  
Ivan Irawan

Purpose- This study aims to examine the effect of effective spread, price impact, trading volume, stock prices, and volatility of returns on the predictability of short-term returns (short horizon return predictability). Methods- This research offers a new approach perspective which is a market microstructure with intraday data to measure short horizon return predictability as an efficient market inversion. The sample in this study was 64 non-financial companies listed on the KOMPAS100 Index during October 2017-March 2018. Intraday data used using the 5-minute frequency obtained from Bloomberg. This study uses multiple linear regression analysis. Finding- This study found that price impact, trading volume, stock prices, and volatility have a positive impact on the predictability of long-term returns. This study also found that effective spread does not have a significant impact on the predictability of short-term returns.


2004 ◽  
pp. 51-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Sharipova ◽  
I. Tcherkashin

Federal tax revenues from the main sectors of the Russian economy after the 1998 crisis are examined in the article. Authors present the structure of revenues from these sectors by main taxes for 1999-2003 and prospects for 2004. Emphasis is given to an increasing dependence of budget on revenues from oil and gas industries. The share of proceeds from these sectors has reached 1/3 of total federal revenues. To explain this fact world oil prices dynamics and changes in tax legislation in Russia are considered. Empirical results show strong dependence of budget revenues on oil prices. The analysis of changes in tax legislation in oil and gas industry shows that the government has managed to redistribute resource rent in favor of the state.


2004 ◽  
pp. 65-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mst. Afanasiev

Сreation of the stabilization fund has become the main feature of the Russian federal budget for 2004. This instrument provides the opportunity to reduce the dependence of budget incomes on the fluctuations of oil prices. The accepted model does not consider the world experience in building of such funds as the "funds for future generations", and the increase of other revenues from the growing oil prices as well. That can lead to shortening and immobilization of the financial basis of economic growth.


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