The Evolution of the Belt and Road Trade Network and Its Determinant Factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (14) ◽  
pp. 3166-3177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaohui Chong ◽  
Chenglin Qin ◽  
Su Pan
2021 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
pp. 101981
Author(s):  
Jiaman Li ◽  
Xiucheng Dong ◽  
Qingzhe Jiang ◽  
Kangyin Dong ◽  
Guixian Liu

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Jianjun Xu ◽  
Xiaowei Yang ◽  
Asif Razzaq

Humanistic factors have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of humanistic factors in international trade networks across the BRI countries. Firstly, we analyzed the structural characteristics of the import trade network across the 61 BRI countries and subsequently adopted the cross-sectional exponential random graph model (ERGM) and temporal ERGM to analyze the role of different humanistic factors in the evolution of import trade network from the static and dynamic perspectives, respectively. The results show the following: (I) the network scale of the import trade across the BRI countries has been expanding, the network density of the trade has been increasing gradually, and the “small-world” characteristics of import network are gradually revealed; (II) all of the factors such as a common (official or spoken) language, a common legal origin, a common religious belief, and ever sibling relationship help the BRI countries establish closer import trade ties; and (III) the differences of trade liberalization and financial liberalization, gross domestic product (GDP), and population in different countries also contribute to the evolution of import trade network among the BRI countries, and the countries with relatively higher GDP and greater population are more active in the import trade network.


Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Guangjun Sui ◽  
Jialing Zou ◽  
Shuang Wu ◽  
Danling Tang

With the deepening of regional industrial transfer, traditional trade data cannot fully explain the real level of trade in a region. This paper aims to reveal the changing pattern of real trade along the “Belt and Road” by establishing a value-added trade (VAT) network of the “Belt and Road” countries and comparing it with the trade network. Applying a network method, we analyze and compare the structures, characteristics, evolutions, and underlying dynamisms of both networks. With a thorough interpretation and visualization of the network density, network centrality, trade communities, and influencing factors of both networks in the three time sections of 2005, 2010, and 2015, we come to the following findings: (1) the connectivity of both networks has been greatly enhanced, reflecting a more integrated regional economy. (2) The center-external structure of both networks has been further strengthened and the polarization of the VAT network is more obvious than that of the trade network. (3) The organizations of trade communities and VAT communities are largely different. Specifically, China rapidly increased its core position in the VAT network and incorporated more and more countries into its VAT community. (4) The underlying factors have similar impacts on both networks. While the growth of regional economic size and free trade agreements will enhance both trade and VAT, the economic gaps and population differences among the “Belt and Road” countries will prohibit regional economic ties. Based on these findings, we propose suggestions on further regional economic cooperation by taking advantage of China’s core position to promote regional VAT, construct broad trade channels, and enhance trade governance.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julio Rojas-Mora ◽  
Felipe Chávez-Bustamante ◽  
Cristian Mondaca-Marino

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate Chinese indirect trade relations in the global trade network to observe if the objectives identified by Cai (2017) in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are being fulfilled, especially with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries.Design/methodology/approachUsing data from the UNCTAD (2016) for the period 2011–2015, a normalized exports network is built. It is analyzed with the Forgotten Effects Theory and the PageRank algorithm. A Monte Carlo experiment with 10,000 replicates is performed to account for its volatility.FindingsThe paper identifies one instance in which China's peripheral countries are importing raw materials and commodities -–oil products – to produce low technological value-added products, which, in turn, are exported to China. LAC countries do not have significant indirect trade relations with China when the former is the origin country, while the latter is the destination in a trade relationship. The trade network has a clear core-periphery structure, with China belonging to its core, although being only the fourth most central node in the network.Originality/valueThis paper contributes with both a new methodology for the analysis of indirect trade relations and the results found for China under the BRI and its trade relationship with LAC economies.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiao Chen ◽  
Jianquan Cheng ◽  
Zhiqin Wu

While there has been increasing concern with respect to the sustainable development of “the Belt and Road” region, the majority of studies have focused on economic and environmental dimensions. This paper focuses on the temporal cultural trade network between the 66 countries of this region between 1990 and 2016. A social network analysis method was used to analyze the cultural trade network and its temporal evolution, where results detected key nodes and cultural corridors. Furthermore, the conceptual point-line-polygon model, which summarizes the expansion of such cultural nodes and corridors between 1990 and 2016, reveals the rapid development of cultural exchanges within the region. Here, the varied roles of large and small-sized countries were found to be dominated by China, Russia, and India. While the cultural trade network has promoted the integration of cultural diversity into the global market, to achieve global cultural sustainability more active trading relations with small-sized countries should be encouraged.


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