scholarly journals Comparative Studies on Trade and Value-Added Trade along the “Belt and Road”: A Network Analysis

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Guangjun Sui ◽  
Jialing Zou ◽  
Shuang Wu ◽  
Danling Tang
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Trade Network ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Industrial Transfer ◽  
A Value ◽  
Network Method ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
Economic Size ◽  
The Belt And Road

With the deepening of regional industrial transfer, traditional trade data cannot fully explain the real level of trade in a region. This paper aims to reveal the changing pattern of real trade along the “Belt and Road” by establishing a value-added trade (VAT) network of the “Belt and Road” countries and comparing it with the trade network. Applying a network method, we analyze and compare the structures, characteristics, evolutions, and underlying dynamisms of both networks. With a thorough interpretation and visualization of the network density, network centrality, trade communities, and influencing factors of both networks in the three time sections of 2005, 2010, and 2015, we come to the following findings: (1) the connectivity of both networks has been greatly enhanced, reflecting a more integrated regional economy. (2) The center-external structure of both networks has been further strengthened and the polarization of the VAT network is more obvious than that of the trade network. (3) The organizations of trade communities and VAT communities are largely different. Specifically, China rapidly increased its core position in the VAT network and incorporated more and more countries into its VAT community. (4) The underlying factors have similar impacts on both networks. While the growth of regional economic size and free trade agreements will enhance both trade and VAT, the economic gaps and population differences among the “Belt and Road” countries will prohibit regional economic ties. Based on these findings, we propose suggestions on further regional economic cooperation by taking advantage of China’s core position to promote regional VAT, construct broad trade channels, and enhance trade governance.

Forgotten effects in trade relations: a view from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julio Rojas-Mora ◽  
Felipe Chávez-Bustamante ◽  
Cristian Mondaca-Marino
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiment ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Trade Network ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Relationship ◽  
The Belt And Road

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate Chinese indirect trade relations in the global trade network to observe if the objectives identified by Cai (2017) in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are being fulfilled, especially with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries.Design/methodology/approachUsing data from the UNCTAD (2016) for the period 2011–2015, a normalized exports network is built. It is analyzed with the Forgotten Effects Theory and the PageRank algorithm. A Monte Carlo experiment with 10,000 replicates is performed to account for its volatility.FindingsThe paper identifies one instance in which China's peripheral countries are importing raw materials and commodities -–oil products – to produce low technological value-added products, which, in turn, are exported to China. LAC countries do not have significant indirect trade relations with China when the former is the origin country, while the latter is the destination in a trade relationship. The trade network has a clear core-periphery structure, with China belonging to its core, although being only the fourth most central node in the network.Originality/valueThis paper contributes with both a new methodology for the analysis of indirect trade relations and the results found for China under the BRI and its trade relationship with LAC economies.

Natural gas trade network of countries and regions along the belt and road: Where to go in the future?

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
pp. 101981
Author(s):  
Jiaman Li ◽  
Xiucheng Dong ◽  
Qingzhe Jiang ◽  
Kangyin Dong ◽  
Guixian Liu
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Trade Network ◽  
The Future ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

scholarly journals How the Belt and Road Initiative Can Help Strengthen the Role of the SCO and Deepen China’s Cooperation with Russia and the Countries of Central Asia

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Na-Xi ◽  
Huang Meng-Fang ◽  
Lu Shan-Bing
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
The Belt And Road

China and Russia issued a joint statement on 8 May 2015 outlining the main approaches to linking the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) projects. Both parties believe that to build the ‘Belt and Road’ project, it is necessary to use economic integration laws and actively enhance the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SOC) in stimulating regional economic cooperation, promoting construction of the SREB and linkage to and cooperation with the EAEU, creating a Free Trade Area (FTA) in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) and simultaneously begin creating a similar FTA among China, Russia and Central Asia to gradually stimulate interstate trade and promote regional economic development, actively developing—along with an improved model of energy cooperation—infrastructure and related industry and strengthening business contacts and jointly promoting construction of the SREB.

scholarly journals China: investment ambitions, limitations and opportunities

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (3) ◽  
pp. 138-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serhii Korablin
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Capital Intensity ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Foreign Investments ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The One ◽  
The Belt And Road

The article considers financial aspects of the implementation of the People's Republic of China's international initiative of "One Belt, One Way". China's impressive economic success over the last 30 years has shown how it grew into a major global exporter and investor, gaining the second-country status in terms of national GDP and imports. These changes took place against the backdrop of rapid economic growth and deep structural reforms, which were accompanied by increased output and exports of high value-added products. Under these conditions, the country naturally prefers to reorient the global economic system in such a way that it is more conducive to China's economic, financial and political interests. A key practical tool for implementing such a plan is the One Belt, One Way initiative, which is to ensure simultaneous access to (a) Western technologies, (b) global raw materials markets, (c) infrastructure capacities that should maximize the deliveries of Chinese produce to all corners of the world economy. However, such an ambitious plan requires an extraordinary amount of financial resources. Despite China's considerable international reserves (over $3 trillion), its volume is still insufficient to cope with such a task. Moreover, the country itself needs further assimilation of foreign investment and technology due to the relatively low level of capital intensity of its workforce. China will be able to solve this dilemma if it manages to create a system of "counter investment", that is, attraction and absorption of foreign investments from more technologically developed countries, which are denominated in the main reserve currencies, and simultaneously realize their own foreign investments in Yuan, offering their users deliveries of own products of slightly lower technological complexity than those received from foreign investors. This publication was prepared based on the presentation of "The Belt and Road Initiative - A New Shape of Globalization?" presented at the Institute of World Economics and Policy (IWEP) of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in May 2019 as part of the International Economic and Economic Conference on "Economic and Trade Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative: Retrospect and Prospect".

scholarly journals Understanding the Role of Humanistic Factors in Trade Network Evolution across the Belt and Road Initiative Countries Using the Exponential Random Graph Model

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Jianjun Xu ◽  
Xiaowei Yang ◽  
Asif Razzaq
Keyword(s):  
Graph Model ◽  
Exponential Random Graph Model ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Trade Network ◽  
Random Graph Model ◽  
Exponential Random Graph ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
The Belt And Road

Humanistic factors have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of humanistic factors in international trade networks across the BRI countries. Firstly, we analyzed the structural characteristics of the import trade network across the 61 BRI countries and subsequently adopted the cross-sectional exponential random graph model (ERGM) and temporal ERGM to analyze the role of different humanistic factors in the evolution of import trade network from the static and dynamic perspectives, respectively. The results show the following: (I) the network scale of the import trade across the BRI countries has been expanding, the network density of the trade has been increasing gradually, and the “small-world” characteristics of import network are gradually revealed; (II) all of the factors such as a common (official or spoken) language, a common legal origin, a common religious belief, and ever sibling relationship help the BRI countries establish closer import trade ties; and (III) the differences of trade liberalization and financial liberalization, gross domestic product (GDP), and population in different countries also contribute to the evolution of import trade network among the BRI countries, and the countries with relatively higher GDP and greater population are more active in the import trade network.

scholarly journals Has “The Belt and Road” initiative promoted regional economic growth and economic innovation?

2021 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 03020
Author(s):  
Ruolin Guo ◽  
Hongkai Zhao ◽  
Yingchu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Economic Innovation ◽  
Good Policy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Belt And Road

The article regards “The Belt and Road” initiative as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the county panel data from 1999 to 2017, difference-in-differences model (DID) is used to examine the impact of the “The Belt and Road” initiative on regional economic growth and economic innovation. The study found that the “The Belt and Road” initiative can significantly increase the economic growth and innovation of the region. Through the placebo test and the robustness test, it shows good policy uniqueness characteristics. The article further analyzes the heterogeneity of the initiative. The study found that the initiative has more obvious economic growth and innovation in the central region.

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