Very short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power based on dual-Doppler radar measurements in the North Sea

AbstractSpacio-temporal distribution patterns of North Sea Basin Early Oligocene (Rupelian) pteropoda (holoplanktonic gastropods: Mollusca, Gastropoda, Euthecosomata) are studied. These patterns indicate three short term invasions of a single pteropod species during the Rupelian. These invasions are indicated here as Clio blinkae Event, Praehyalocylis laxeannulata Event and Clio jacobae Event. The conspicuously short occurrences of the species, their abundances and some lithological features of the pteropod bearing strata lead to the conclusion that these plankton events are linked to sea level high-stands allowing currents from the worlds oceans to enter into the North Sea Basin.

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On the short-term and long-term impact of drilling activities in the Dutch sector of the North Sea

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1006/jmsc.1996.0129 ◽

1996 ◽

Vol 53 (6) ◽

pp. 1036-1044 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

R Daan

Keyword(s):

North Sea ◽

Short Term ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea ◽

Long Term Impact

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On the correlation of spatial wind speed and solar irradiance variability above the North Sea

Advances in Science and Research ◽

10.5194/asr-13-57-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 13 ◽

pp. 57-61 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Anna Rieke Mehrens ◽

Lueder von Bremen

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Wind Power ◽

North Sea ◽

Time Scale ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

High Wind ◽

Cold Air ◽

Wind Variability ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea

Abstract. Mesoscale wind fluctuations on a time scale of tens of minutes to several hours lead to high wind power fluctuations. Enhanced mesoscale wind variability emerges during cold air outbreaks and resulting cellular convection. The study investigates spatial wind and solar variability and their correlation during cellular convection. Cellular convection leads to simultaneous high solar and wind variability, but the highest solar or wind variability occurs due to other meteorological phenomena.

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North Sea region energy system towards 2050: integrated offshore grid and sector coupling drive offshore wind installations

10.5194/wes-2020-60 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Matti Koivisto ◽

Juan Gea-Bermúdez ◽

Polyneikis Kanellas ◽

Kauhshik Das ◽

Poul Sørensen

Keyword(s):

Power Plant ◽

Wind Power ◽

North Sea ◽

Energy System ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

Wind Power Plant ◽

Offshore Wind Power ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea ◽

Wind Curtailment

Abstract. This paper analyses several energy system scenarios towards 2050 for the North Sea region. With focus on offshore wind power, the impacts of meshed offshore grid and sector coupling are studied. First, a project-based scenario, where each offshore wind power plant is connected individually to onshore, is compared to a meshed grid scenario. Both the amount of offshore wind installed and the level of curtailment are assessed. Then, these results are compared to a scenario with sector coupling included. The results show that while the introduction of a meshed grid can increase the amount of offshore wind installed towards 2050, sector coupling is expected to be a more important driver for increasing offshore wind installations. In addition, sector coupling can significantly decrease the level of offshore wind curtailment.

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Short-term variability in pelagic-benthic exchange of phytopigments and their relations to benthic bacterial variables in the North Sea

Aquatic Microbial Ecology ◽

10.3354/ame013047 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 13 ◽

pp. 47-61 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

FC van Duyl ◽

GCA Duineveld ◽

AJ Kop

Keyword(s):

North Sea ◽

Short Term ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea ◽

Short Term Variability

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Towards the North Sea wind power revolution

10.5194/wes-2018-53 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Jens N. Sørensen ◽

Gunner C. Larsen

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

North Sea ◽

Wind Turbines ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Cost Model ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

Meteorological Model ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea ◽

The Cost

Abstract. The present work assesses the potential of a massive exploitation of offshore wind power in the North Sea by combining a meteorological model with a cost model that includes a bathymetric analysis of the water depth of the North Sea. The overall objective is to assess if the wind power in the North Sea can deliver the total consumption of electricity in Europe and to what prize as compared to conventional onshore wind energy. The meteorological model is based on the assumption that the exploited area is so large, that the wind field between the turbines is in equilibrium with the atmospheric boundary layer. This makes it possible to use momentum analysis to determine the mutual influence between the atmospheric boundary layer and the wind farm, with the wind farm represented by an average horizontal force component corresponding to the thrust. The cost model includes expressions for the most essential wind farm cost elements, such as costs of wind turbines, support structures, cables and electrical substations, as well as operation and maintenance as function of rotor size, interspatial distance between the turbines, and water depth. The numbers used in the cost model are based on previous experience from offshore wind farms, and is therefore somewhat conservative. The analysis shows that the lowest energy cost is obtained for a configuration of large wind turbines erected with an interspatial distance of about eight rotor diameters. A part of the analysis is devoted to assessing the relative costs of the various elements of the cost model in order to determine the components with the largest potential for reducing the cost price. As an overall finding, it is shown that the power demand of Europe, which is 0.4 TW or about 3500 TWh/year, can be fulfilled by exploiting an area of 190.000 km2, corresponding to about 1/3 of the North Sea, with 100.000 wind turbines of generator size 13 MW on water depths up to 45 m at a cost price of about 7.5 €cents/kWh.

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On the Use of Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements for Very Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs10111701 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 1701 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Laura Valldecabres ◽

Nicolai Nygaard ◽

Luis Vera-Tudela ◽

Lueder von Bremen ◽

Martin Kühn

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Wind Turbine ◽

Wind Power ◽

Electricity Market ◽

Doppler Radar ◽

Short Term ◽

Radar Observations ◽

Spatial Coverage ◽

Probabilistic Forecasts ◽

Dual Doppler Radar

Very short-term forecasts of wind power provide electricity market participants with extremely valuable information, especially in power systems with high penetration of wind energy. In very short-term horizons, statistical methods based on historical data are frequently used. This paper explores the use of dual-Doppler radar observations of wind speed and direction to derive five-minute ahead deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of wind power. An advection-based technique is introduced, which estimates the predictive densities of wind speed at the target wind turbine. In a case study, the proposed methodology is used to forecast the power generated by seven turbines in the North Sea with a temporal resolution of one minute. The radar-based forecast outperforms the persistence and climatology benchmarks in terms of overall forecasting skill. Results indicate that when a large spatial coverage of the inflow of the wind turbine is available, the proposed methodology is also able to generate reliable density forecasts. Future perspectives on the application of Doppler radar observations for very short-term wind power forecasting are discussed in this paper.

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