scholarly journals Erratum: Projected squeezing of the wintertime North-Atlantic jet (2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 074016)

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 049602
Author(s):  
Yannick Peings ◽  
Julien Cattiaux ◽  
Stephen J Vavrus ◽  
Gudrun Magnusdottir
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (38) ◽  
pp. e2104105118
Author(s):  
Matthew B. Osman ◽  
Sloan Coats ◽  
Sarah B. Das ◽  
Joseph R. McConnell ◽  
Nathan Chellman
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
The North ◽  
North Atlantic Jet ◽  
Water Isotope

Reconstruction of the North Atlantic jet stream (NAJ) presents a critical, albeit largely unconstrained, paleoclimatic target. Models suggest northward migration and changing variance of the NAJ under 21st-century warming scenarios, but assessing the significance of such projections is hindered by a lack of long-term observations. Here, we incorporate insights from an ensemble of last-millennium water isotope–enabled climate model simulations and a wide array of mean annual water isotope (δ18O) and annually accumulated snowfall records from Greenland ice cores to reconstruct North Atlantic zonal-mean zonal winds back to the 8th century CE. Using this reconstruction we provide preobservational constraints on both annual mean NAJ position and intensity to show that late 20th- and early 21st-century NAJ variations were likely not unique relative to natural variability. Rather, insights from our 1,250 year reconstruction highlight the overwhelming role of natural variability in thus far masking the response of midlatitude atmospheric dynamics to anthropogenic forcing, consistent with recent large-ensemble transient modeling experiments. This masking is not projected to persist under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, however, with model projected annual mean NAJ position emerging as distinct from the range of reconstructed natural variability by as early as 2060 CE.

scholarly journals The North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Jet Variability: Precursors to NAO Regimes and Transitions

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (12) ◽  
pp. 3763-3787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Jing Cha
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Dominant Negative ◽  
Wind Condition ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

Abstract In this paper, precursors to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its transitions are investigated to understand the dynamical cause of the interdecadal NAO variability from dominant negative (NAO−) events during 1950–77 (P1) to dominant positive (NAO+) events during 1978–2010 (P2). It is found that the phase of the NAO event depends strongly on the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic jet (NAJ) prior to the NAO onset. The NAO− (NAO+) events occur frequently when the NAJ core prior to the NAO onset is displaced southward (northward), as the situation within P1 (P2). Thus, the northward (southward) shift of the NAJ from its mean position is a precursor to the NAO+ (NAO−) event. This finding is further supported by results obtained from a weakly nonlinear model. Furthermore, the model results show that, when the Atlantic mean zonal wind exceeds a critical strength under which the dipole anomaly prior to the NAO onset is stationary, in situ NAO− (NAO+) events, which are events not preceded by opposite events, can occur frequently during P1 (P2) when the Atlantic storm track is not too strong. This mean zonal wind condition is easily satisfied during P1 and P2. However, when the Atlantic storm track (mean zonal wind) prior to the NAO onset is markedly intensified (weakened), the NAO event can undergo a transition from one phase to another, especially in a relatively strong background westerly wind, the Atlantic storm track has to be strong enough to produce a phase transition.

Role of the position of the North Atlantic jet in the variability and odds of extreme PM10 in Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 35-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Ordóñez ◽  
David Barriopedro ◽  
Ricardo García-Herrera
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

scholarly journals Are the Winters 2010 and 2012 Archetypes Exhibiting Extreme Opposite Behavior of the North Atlantic Jet Stream?*

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (10) ◽  
pp. 3626-3640 ◽  
Author(s):  
João A. Santos ◽  
Tim Woollings ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
The North ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Opposite Behavior ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Jet Variability ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

Abstract The atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic–European sector experienced exceptional but highly contrasting conditions in the recent 2010 and 2012 winters (November–March, with the year dated by the relevant January). Evidence is given for the remarkably different locations of the eddy-driven westerly jet over the North Atlantic. In the 2010 winter the maximum of the jet stream was systematically between 30° and 40°N (south jet regime), whereas in the 2012 winter it was predominantly located around 55°N (north jet regime). These jet features underline the occurrence of either weak flow (2010) or strong and persistent ridges throughout the troposphere (2012). This is confirmed by the very different occurrence of blocking systems over the North Atlantic, associated with episodes of strong cyclonic (anticyclonic) Rossby wave breaking in 2010 (2012) winter. These dynamical features underlie strong precipitation and temperature anomalies over parts of Europe, with detrimental impacts on many socioeconomic sectors. Despite the highly contrasting atmospheric states, mid- and high-latitude boundary conditions do not reveal strong differences in these two winters. The two winters were associated with opposite ENSO phases, but there is no causal evidence of a remote forcing from the Pacific sea surface temperatures. Finally, the exceptionality of the two winters is demonstrated in relation to the last 140 years. It is suggested that these winters may be seen as archetypes of North Atlantic jet variability under current climate conditions.

scholarly journals Modeled and Observed Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Jet Stream and Its Connection to Sea Surface Temperatures

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8313-8338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isla R. Simpson ◽  
Clara Deser ◽  
Karen A. McKinnon ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

Multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic jet stream in general circulation models (GCMs) is compared with that in reanalysis products of the twentieth century. It is found that almost all models exhibit multidecadal jet stream variability that is entirely consistent with the sampling of white noise year-to-year atmospheric fluctuations. In the observed record, the variability displays a pronounced seasonality within the winter months, with greatly enhanced variability toward the late winter. This late winter variability exceeds that found in any GCM and greatly exceeds expectations from the sampling of atmospheric noise, motivating the need for an underlying explanation. The potential roles of both external forcings and internal coupled ocean–atmosphere processes are considered. While the late winter variability is not found to be closely connected with external forcing, it is found to be strongly related to the internally generated component of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In fact, consideration of the seasonality of the jet stream variability within the winter months reveals that the AMV is far more strongly connected to jet stream variability during March than the early winter months or the winter season as a whole. Reasoning is put forward for why this connection likely represents a driving of the jet stream variability by the SSTs, although the dynamics involved remain to be understood. This analysis reveals a fundamental mismatch between late winter jet stream variability in observations and GCMs and a potential source of long-term predictability of the late winter Atlantic atmospheric circulation.

scholarly journals Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of North Atlantic Oscillations: A New Thinking of Symmetry Breaking

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (6) ◽  
pp. 1955-1977 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Xiaodan Chen ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein
Keyword(s):  
Symmetry Breaking ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Nonlinear Process ◽  
Energy Dispersion ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic Jet ◽  
Strong Asymmetry

Abstract Observations reveal that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exhibits a strong asymmetry: large amplitude, long persistence, and westward movement in its negative phase (NAO−) and conversely in its positive phase (NAO+). Further calculations show that blocking days occur frequently over the North Atlantic (Eurasia) after the NAO− (NAO+) peaks, thus indicating that North Atlantic blocking occurs because of the retrogression of the NAO−, whereas blocking occurs over Eurasia because of enhanced downstream energy dispersion of the NAO+. Motivated by a unified nonlinear multiscale interaction (UNMI) model, the authors define dispersion, nonlinearity, and movement indices to describe the basic characteristics of the NAO. On this basis, the physical cause of the strong asymmetry or symmetry breaking of the NAO is examined. It is revealed that the strong asymmetry between the NAO+ and NAO− may be associated with the large difference of the North Atlantic jet in intensity and latitude between both phases. When the NAO+ grows, the North Atlantic jet is intensified and shifts northward and corresponds to reduced nonlinearity and enhanced energy dispersion because of an increased difference between its group velocity and phase speed related to enhanced meridional potential vorticity gradient. Thus, the NAO+ has smaller amplitude, eastward movement, and less persistence. Opposite behavior is seen for the NAO− because of the opposite variation of the North Atlantic jet during its life cycle. Thus, the above results suggest that the NAO+ (NAO−) tends to be a linear (nonlinear) process as a natural consequence of the NAO evolution because of different changes in the North Atlantic jet between both phases.

Tropical cloud-radiative changes contribute to robust DJF jet exit strengthening over Europe under global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Albern ◽  
Aiko Voigt ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Stream Response ◽  
The Impact ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

<p>During boreal winter (December to February, DJF), the North Atlantic jet stream and storm track are expected to extend eastward over Europe in response to climate change. This will affect future weather and climate over Europe, for example by steering storms which are associated with strong winds and heavy precipitation towards Europe. The jet stream and storm track responses over Europe are robust across coupled climate models of phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; Harvey et al., 2020, JGR-A, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701). We show that the jet stream response is further robust across CMIP5 models of varying complexity ranging from coupled climate models to atmosphere-only General Circulation Models (GCMs) with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice cover. In contrast to the jet stream response over Europe, the jet stream response over the North Atlantic is not robust in the coupled climate models and the atmosphere-only GCMs.</p><p>In addition to the CMIP5 simulations, we investigate Amip-like simulations with the atmospheric components of ICON-NWP, and the CMIP5 models MPI-ESM-LR and IPSL-CM5A-LR that apply the cloud-locking method to break the cloud-radiation-circulation coupling and to diagnose the contribution of cloud-radiative changes on the jet stream response to climate change. In the simulations, SSTs are prescribed to isolate the impact of cloud-radiative changes via the atmospheric pathway, i.e., via changes in atmospheric cloud-radiative heating, and global warming is mimicked by a uniform 4K SST increase (cf. Albern et al., 2019, JAMES, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001592 and Voigt et al., 2019, J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0810.1). In all three models, cloud-radiative changes contribute significantly and robustly to the eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet stream towards Europe. At the same time, cloud-radiative changes contribute to the model uncertainty over the North Atlantic. In addition to the jet stream response, we investigate the impact of cloud-radiative changes on the storm track response in ICON-NWP and discuss similarities and differences between the jet stream and storm track responses over the North Atlantic-European region.</p><p>In ICON-NWP, the impact of cloud-radiative changes on the jet stream response is dominated by tropical cloud-radiative changes while midlatitude and polar cloud-radiative changes have a minor impact. A further division of the tropics into four smaller tropical regions that cover the western tropical Pacific, the eastern tropical Pacific, the tropical Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean shows that cloud-radiative changes over the western tropical Pacific, eastern tropical Pacific, and Indian Ocean all contribute about equally to the eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet stream towards Europe because these regions exhibit substantial upper-tropospheric cloud-radiative heating in response to climate change. At the same time, cloud-radiative changes over the tropical Atlantic hardly contribute to the jet response over Europe because changes in atmospheric cloud-radiative heating under climate change are small in this region. As for the impact of global cloud-radiative changes, we also discuss the impact of the regional cloud-radiative changes on the storm track response over the North Atlantic-European region to climate change.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document