Testing Vertical Wind Shear and Nonlinear MJO/ENSO Interactions as Predictors for Subseasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Hansen et al. (2020) found patterns of vertical wind shear, relative humidity (RH) and non-linear interactions between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation that impact subseasonal Atlantic TC activity. We test whether these patterns can be used to improve subseasonal predictions. To do this we build a statistical-dynamical hybrid model using Navy-ESPC reforecasts as a part of the SUBX project. By adding and removing Navy-ESPC reforecasted values of predictors from a logistic regression model, we assess the contribution of skill from each predictor. We find that Atlantic SSTs and the MJO are the most important factors governing subseasonal Atlantic TC activity. RH contributes little to subseasonal TC predictions, however, shear predictors improve forecast skill at 5-10 day lead times, before forecast shear errors become too large. Non-linear MJO/ENSO interactions did not improve skill compared to separate linear considerations of these factors but did improve the reliability of predictions for high-probability active TC periods. Both non-linear MJO/ENSO interactions and the subseasonal shear signal appear linked to PV streamer activity. This study suggests that correcting model shear biases and improving representation of Rossby wave-breaking is the most efficient way to improve subseasonal Atlantic TC forecasts.

Influence of Ural High on Air Temperatures over Eastern Europe and Northern China during extended Winter

Anticyclonic anomaly over Ural, or Ural High (UH), has recently received much attention as a factor related to weather anomalies across Eurasia. Here we studied how UH affects the occurrence of cold wintertime episodes over Eastern Europe and Northern China. By employing three methods to identify UH, we found that a method based on the sea level pressure anomaly captures a stronger cooling signal over Eastern Europe and this method includes non-blocking cases associated with low-level anticyclones that do not affect the upper troposphere. However, under the occurrence of UH, a stronger cooling over Northern China is detected by a method based on 500-hPa geopotential height fields. Cold events over Eastern Europe typically occur when UH formation was associated with a Rossby wave breaking in the upper level. Our results show that the horizontal temperature advection plays an important role in formation of cold episodes both in Eastern Europe and Northern China. The advection is balanced by diabatic processes, which show an opposite sign to the temperature advection in both regions. Also adiabatic warming contributes to balancing the advection in Northern China. We find that the exact location of the positive SLP anomaly during UH is the most important factor controlling whether or not Eastern Europe or Northern China will experience a cold episode. If the positive SLP anomaly develops more northwest than usual, Eastern Europe will experience a cold episode. When the anomaly moves eastward, Northern China will be cold.

Multiscale aspects of the 26–27 April 2011 tornado outbreak. Part I: Outbreak chronology and environmental evolution

One of the most prolific tornado outbreaks ever documented occurred on 26–27 April 2011 and comprised three successive episodes of tornadic convection that primarily impacted the southeastern U.S., including two quasi-linear convective systems (hereafter QLCS1 and QLCS2) that preceded the notorious outbreak of long-track, violent tornadoes spawned by numerous supercells on the afternoon of 27 April. The ~36-h period encompassing these three episodes was part of a longer multiday outbreak that occurred ahead of a slowly moving upper-level trough over the Rocky Mountains. In this Part I, we detail how the environment evolved to support this extended outbreak, with particular attention given to the three successive systems that each exhibited a different morphology and severity.The amplifying upper-level trough and attendant jet streak resulted from a Rossby wave breaking event that yielded a complex tropopause structure and supported three prominent shortwave troughs that sequentially moved into the south-central U.S. QLCS1 formed ahead of the second shortwave and was accompanied by rapid flow modifications, including considerable low-level jet (LLJ) intensification. The third shortwave moved into the lee of the Rockies early on 27 April to yield destabilization behind QLCS1 and support the formation of QLCS2, which was followed by further LLJ intensification and helped to establish favorable deep-layer shear profiles over the warm sector. The afternoon supercell outbreak commenced following the movement of this shortwave into the Mississippi Valley, which was attended by a deep tropopause fold, cold front aloft, and dryline that promoted two prominent bands of tornadic supercells over the Southeast.

Linking air stagnation in Europe with the synoptic- to large-scale atmospheric circulation

The build-up of pollutants to harmful levels can occur when meteorological conditions favour their production or accumulation near the surface. Such conditions can arise when a region experiences air stagnation. The link between European air stagnation, air pollution and the synoptic- to large-scale circulation is investigated in this article across all seasons and the 1979–2018 period. Dynamical indices identifying atmospheric blocking, Rossby wave breaking, subtropical ridges, and the North Atlantic eddy-driven and subtropical jets are used to describe the synoptic- to large-scale circulation as predictors in statistical models of air stagnation and pollutant variability. It is found that the large-scale circulation can explain approximately 60 % of the variance in monthly air stagnation, ozone and wintertime particulate matter (PM) in five distinct regions within Europe. The variance explained by the model does not vary strongly across regions and seasons, apart from for PM when the skill is highest in winter. However, the dynamical indices most related to air stagnation do depend on region and season. The blocking and Rossby wave breaking predictors tend to be the most important for describing air stagnation and pollutant variability in northern regions, whereas ridges and the subtropical jet are more important to the south. The demonstrated correspondence between air stagnation, pollution and the large-scale circulation can be used to assess the representation of stagnation in climate models, which is key for understanding how air stagnation and its associated climatic impacts may change in the future.

3-D tomographic observations of Rossby wave breaking over the North Atlantic during the WISE aircraft campaign in 2017

This paper presents measurements of ozone, water vapour and nitric acid (HNO3) in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) over North Atlantic and Europe. The measurements were acquired with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) during the Wave Driven Isentropic Exchange (WISE) campaign in October 2017. GLORIA is an airborne limb imager capable of acquiring both 2-D data sets (curtains along the flight path) and, when the carrier aircraft is flying around the observed air mass, spatially highly resolved 3-D tomographic data. Here, we present a case study of a Rossby wave (RW) breaking event observed during two subsequent flights 2 d apart. RW breaking is known to steepen tracer gradients and facilitate stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE). Our measurements reveal complex spatial structures in stratospheric tracers (ozone and nitric acid) with multiple vertically stacked filaments. Backward-trajectory analysis is used to demonstrate that these features are related to several previous Rossby wave breaking events and that the small-scale structure of the UTLS in the Rossby wave breaking region, which is otherwise very hard to observe, can be understood as stirring and mixing of air masses of tropospheric and stratospheric origin. It is also shown that a strong nitric acid enhancement observed just above the tropopause is likely a result of NOx production by lightning activity. The measurements showed signatures of enhanced mixing between stratospheric and tropospheric air near the polar jet with some transport of water vapour into the stratosphere. Some of the air masses seen in 3-D data were encountered again 2 d later, stretched to very thin filament (horizontal thickness down to 30 km at some altitudes) rich in stratospheric tracers. This repeated measurement allowed us to directly observe and analyse the progress of mixing processes in a thin filament over 2 d. Our results provide direct insight into small-scale dynamics of the UTLS in the Rossby wave breaking region, which is of great importance to understanding STE and poleward transport in the UTLS.

The three-dimensional life cycles of potential vorticity cutoffs: a global and selected regional climatologies in ERA-Interim (1979–2018)

The aim of this study is to explore the nature of potential vorticity (PV) cutoff life cycles. While climatological frequencies of such near-tropopause cyclonic vortices are well known, their life cycle and in particular their three-dimensional evolution is poorly understood. To address this gap, a novel method is introduced that uses isentropic air parcel trajectories to track PV cutoffs as three-dimensional objects. With this method, we can distinguish the two fundamentally different PV cutoff lysis scenarios on isentropic surfaces: complete diabatic decay vs. reabsorption by the stratospheric reservoir. This method is applied to the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2018), and the first global climatology of PV cutoffs is presented that is independent of the selection of a vertical level and identifies and tracks PV cutoffs as three-dimensional features. More than 150 000 PV cutoff life cycles are identified and analyzed. The climatology confirms known frequency maxima of PV cutoffs and identifies additional bands in subtropical areas in the summer hemispheres and a circumpolar band around Antarctica. The first climatological analysis of diabatic decay and reabsorption shows that both scenarios occur equally frequently – in contrast to the prevailing opinion that diabatic decay dominates. Then, PV cutoffs are classified according to their position relative to jet streams (equatorward (Type I), between two jets (Type II), and poleward (Type III)). A composite analysis shows distinct dynamical scenarios for the genesis of the three types. Type I forms due to anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking above subtropical surface anticyclones and hardly results in precipitation. Type II results from anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking in mid-latitudes in regions with split-jet conditions and is frequently accompanied by surface cyclogenesis and substantial precipitation. Type III cutoffs preferentially form due to cyclonic Rossby wave breaking within extratropical cyclones in the storm track regions. We show that important track characteristics (speed, travel distance, frequency of decay and reabsorption, isentropic levels) differ between the categories, while lifetime is similar in all categories. Finally, 12 PV cutoff genesis regions in DJF and JJA are selected to study the regional characteristics of PV cutoff life cycles. As a particularly novel aspect, the vertical evolution of PV cutoffs along the life cycle is investigated. We find that, climatologically, PV cutoffs reach their maximum vertical extent about one day after genesis in most regions. However, while in some regions PV cutoffs rapidly disappear at lower levels by diabatic decay, they can grow downward in other regions. In addition, regional differences in lifetimes, the frequencies of diabatic decay and reabsorption, and the link to surface cyclones are identified that cannot be explained only by the preferred regional occurrence of the different cutoff types as defined above. Finally, we also show that in many regions PV cutoffs can be involved in surface cyclogenesis even after their formation. This study is an important step towards quantifying fundamental dynamical characteristics and the surface impacts of PV cutoffs. The proposed classification according to the jet-relative position provides a useful way to improve the conceptual understanding of PV cutoff life cycles in different regions of the globe. However, these life cycles can be substantially modified by specific regional conditions.

Hot and cold flavors of southern California’s Santa Ana winds: their causes, trends, and links with wildfire

Santa Ana winds (SAWs) are associated with anomalous temperatures in coastal Southern California (SoCal). As dry air flows over SoCal’s coastal ranges on its way from the elevated Great Basin down to sea level, all SAWs warm adiabatically. Many but not all SAWs produce coastal heat events. The strongest regionally averaged SAWs tend to be cold. In fact, some of the hottest and coldest observed temperatures in coastal SoCal are linked to SAWs. We show that hot and cold SAWs are produced by distinct synoptic dynamics. High-amplitude anticyclonic flow around a blocking high pressure aloft anchored at the California coast produces hot SAWs. Cold SAWs result from anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over the northwestern U.S. Hot SAWs are preceded by warming in the Great Basin and dry conditions across the Southwestern U.S. Precipitation over the Southwest, including SoCal, and snow accumulation in the Great Basin usually precede cold SAWs. Both SAW flavors, but especially the hot SAWs, yield low relative humidity at the coast. Although cold SAWs tend to be associated with the strongest winds, hot SAWs tend to last longer and preferentially favor wildfire growth. Historically, out of large (> 100 acres) SAW-spread wildfires, 90% were associated with hot SAWs, accounting for 95% of burned area. As health impacts of SAW-driven coastal fall, winter and spring heat waves and impacts of smoke from wildfires have been recently identified, our results have implications for designing early warning systems. The long-term warming trend in coastal temperatures associated with SAWs is focused on January–March, when hot and cold SAW frequency and temperature intensity have been increasing and decreasing, respectively, over our 71-year record.

Characteristics of long-duration heavy precipitation events along the West Coast of the United States

Prolonged periods (e.g., several days or more) of heavy precipitation can result in sustained high-impact flooding. Herein, an investigation of long-duration heavy precipitation events (HPEs), defined as periods comprising ≥ 3 days with precipitation exceeding the climatological 95th percentile, is conducted for 1979–2019 for the U.S. West Coast, specifically Northern California. An objective flow-based categorization method is applied to identify principal large-scale flow patterns for the events. Four categories are identified and examined through composite analyses and case studies. Two of the categories are characterized by a strong zonal jet stream over the eastern North Pacific, while the other two are characterized by atmospheric blocking over the central North Pacific and the Bering Sea–Alaska region, respectively. The composites and case studies demonstrate that the flow patterns for the HPEs tend to remain in place for several days, maintaining strong baroclinicity and promoting occurrences of multiple cyclones in rapid succession near the West Coast. The successive cyclones result in persistent water vapor flux and forcing for ascent over Northern California, sustaining heavy precipitation. For the zonal jet patterns, cyclones affecting the West Coast tend to occur in the poleward jet exit region in association with cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. For the blocking patterns, cyclones tend to occur in association with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking on the downstream flank of the block. For Bering Sea–Alaska blocking cases, cyclones can move into this region in conjunction with cyclonically breaking waves that extend into the eastern North Pacific from the upstream flank of the block.