Interannual Influences of the Surface Potential Vorticity Forcing over the Tibetan Plateau on East Asian Summer Rainfall

The influences of interannual surface potential vorticity forcing over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) and upper-level circulation are explored in this study. The results show that the interannual EASR and associated circulations are closely related to the surface potential vorticity negative uniform leading mode (PVNUM) over the TP. When the PVNUM is in the positive phase, more rainfall occurs in the Yangtze River valley, South Korea, Japan, and part of northern China, less rainfall occurs in southern China, and vice versa. A possible mechanism by which PVNUM affects EASR is proposed. Unstable air induced by the positive phase of PVNUM could stimulate significant upward motion and a lower-level anomalous cyclone over the TP. As a result, a dipole heating mode with anomalous cooling over the southwestern TP and anomalous heating over the southeastern TP is generated. Sensitivity experiment results regarding this dipole heating mode indicate that anomalous cooling over the southwestern TP leads to local and northeastern Asian negative height anomalies, while anomalous heating over the southeastern TP leads to local positive height anomalies. These results greatly resemble the realistic circulation pattern associated with EASR. Further analysis indicates that the anomalous water vapor transport associated with this anomalous circulation pattern is responsible for the anomalous EASR. Consequently, changes in surface potential vorticity forcing over the TP can induce changes in EASR.

A novel method for objective identification of 3-D potential vorticity anomalies

Potential vorticity (PV) analysis plays a central role in studying atmospheric dynamics and in particular in studying the life cycle of weather systems. The three-dimensional (3-D) structure and temporal evolution of the associated PV anomalies, however, are not yet fully understood. An automated technique to objectively identify 3-D PV anomalies can help to shed light on 3-D atmospheric dynamics in specific case studies, as well as facilitate statistical evaluations within climatological studies. Such a technique to identify PV anomalies fully in 3-D, however, does not yet exist. This study presents a novel algorithm for the objective identification of PV anomalies in gridded data, as commonly output by numerical simulation models. The algorithm is inspired by morphological image processing techniques and can be applied to both two-dimensional (2-D) and 3-D fields on vertically isentropic levels. The method maps input data to a horizontally stereographic projection and relies on an efficient computation of horizontal distances within the projected field. Candidates for PV anomaly features are filtered according to heuristic criteria, and feature description vectors are obtained for further analysis. The generated feature descriptions are well suited for subsequent case studies of 3-D atmospheric dynamics as represented by the underlying numerical simulation, or for generation of climatologies of feature characteristics. We evaluate our approach by comparison with an existing 2-D technique, and demonstrate the full 3-D perspective by means of a case study of an extreme precipitation event that was dynamically linked to a prominent subtropical PV anomaly. The case study demonstrates variations in the 3-D structure of the detected PV anomalies that would not have been captured by a 2-D method. We discuss further advantages of using a 3-D approach, including elimination of temporal inconsistencies in the detected features due to 3-D structural variation, and elimination of the need to manually select a specific isentropic level on which the anomalies are assumed to be best captured. The method is made available as open-source for straightforward use by the atmospheric community.

Intensity fluctuations in Hurricane Irma (2017) during a period of rapid intensification

Intensity fluctuations observed during a period of rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) between 04 September and 06 September were investigated in a detailed modelling study using an ensemble of Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) convection permitting forecasts. These intensity fluctuations consisted of alternating weakening and strengthening phases. During weakening phases the tropical cyclone temporarily paused its intensification. It was found that weakening phases were associated with a change in the potential vorticity structure, with a tendency for it to become more monopolar. Convection during strengthening phases was associated with isolated local regions of high relative vorticity and vertical velocity in the eyewall, while during weakening phases the storm became more azimuthally symmetric with weaker convection spread more evenly. The boundary layer was found to play an important role in the cause of the intensity fluctuations with an increase in the agradient wind within the boundary layer causing a spin--down just above the boundary layer during the weakening phases whereas during the strengthening phases the agradient wind reduces. This study offers new explanations for why these fluctuations occur and what causes them.

Total ozone potential vorticity and tropopause pressure : A comparative Analysis over south-east Asia

On the basis of TOMS data, a comparative analysis of total ozone. potential vorticity and tropopause pressure has been done over the area 20°- 50° N, 90° -160° E (south-east Asia) for a period October 1982 to September, 1983. The study has been done for three different latitude bands 20°-30° N, 30°-40° N and 400-50° N. High correlations have been found near the tropopause level at all seasons except in autumn.

Analysis of total ozone, potential vorticity and tropopause pressure over southeast Asia during winter

This article shows the analysis of total ozone and potential vorticity and also tropopause pressure during winter period (December, January and February) over the area 20°-50°N, 90°.160oE (southeast Asia), This is done for three different latitude bands 20o-30oN, 30° -40° N and 40°S -50oN. Due to maximum, latitudinal gradient of ozone in the lower latitudinal band, high correlation is found with potential vorticity and also with tropopause level

Moist Static Potential Vorticity Budget in Tropical Motion Systems

Analyses of simple models of moist tropical motion systems reveal that the column-mean moist static potential vorticity (MSPV) can explain their propagation and growth. The MSPV is akin to the equivalent PV except it uses moist static energy (MSE) instead of the equivalent potential temperature. Examination of an MSPV budget that is scaled for moist off-equatorial synoptic-scale systems reveals that α, the ratio between the vertical gradients of latent and dry static energies, describes the relative contribution of dry and moist advective processes to the evolution of MSPV. Horizontal advection of the moist component of MSPV, a process akin to horizontal MSE advection, governs the evolution of synoptic-scale systems in regions of high humidity. On the other hand, horizontal advection of dry PV predominates in a dry atmosphere. Derivation of a “moist static” wave activity density budget reveals that α also describes the relative importance of moist and dry processes to wave activity amplification and decay. Linear regression analysis of the MSPV budget in eastern Pacific easterly waves shows that the MSPV anomalies originate over the eastern Caribbean and propagate westward due to dry PV advection. They are amplified by the fluxes of the moist component of MSPV over the Caribbean sea and over the eastern Pacific from 105-130°W, underscoring the importance of moist processes in these waves. On the other hand, dry PV convergence amplifies the waves from 90-100°W, likely as a result of the barotropic energy conversions that occur in this region.

Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed

Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can cause substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are unclear. Here, such structural changes of strong North Atlantic cyclones in a warmer climate close to the end of the current century are investigated with storm-relative composites based on Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS) simulations. Furthermore, a piecewise potential vorticity inversion is applied to associate such changes in low-level winds to changes in potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at different levels. Projected changes in cyclone intensity are generally rather small. However, using cyclone-relative composites, we identify an extended wind footprint southeast of the center of strong cyclones, where the wind speed tends to intensify in a warmer climate. Both an amplified low-level PV anomaly driven by enhanced diabatic heating and a dipole change in upper-level PV anomalies contribute to this wind intensification. On the contrary, wind changes associated with lower- and upper-level PV anomalies mostly compensate each other upstream of the cyclone center. Wind changes at upper levels are dominated by changes in upper-level PV anomalies and the background flow. All together, our results indicate that a complex interaction of enhanced diabatic heating and altered non-linear upper-tropospheric wave dynamics shape future changes in near-surface winds in North Atlantic cyclones.

Characterization of transport from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone into the UTLS via shedding of low-potential vorticity cutoffs

Air mass transport within the summertime Asian monsoon circulation provides a major source of anthropogenic pollution for the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Here, we investigate the quasi-horizontal transport of air masses from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) into the extratropical lower stratosphere and their chemical evolution. For that reason, we developed a method to identify and track the air masses exported from the monsoon. This method is based on the anomalously low potential vorticity (PV) of these air masses (tropospheric low–PV cutoffs) compared to the lower-stratosphere, and uses trajectory calculations and chemical fields from the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). The results show evidence for frequent summertime transport from the monsoon anticyclone to mid-latitudes over the North Pacific, even reaching high latitude regions of Siberia and Alaska. Most of the low–PV cutoffs related to air masses exported from the ASMA have lifetimes shorter than one week (about 90 %) and sizes smaller than 1 percent of the northern hemisphere (NH) area. The chemical composition of these air masses is characterised by carbon monoxide, ozone and water vapour mixing ratios at an intermediate range between values typical for the monsoon anticyclone and the lower-stratosphere. The chemical evolution during transport within these low–PV cutoffs shows a gradual change from characteristics of the monsoon anticyclone to characteristics of the lower stratospheric background during about one week, indicating continuous mixing with the background atmosphere.