Unprecedented Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) disruption in 2015-2016: Implications for tropical waves and ozone

Abstract This study investigates tropical waves and their role in driving a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like signal in stratospheric winds in a global 7-km-horizontal-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The Nature Run (NR) is a 2-yr global mesoscale simulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5). In the tropics, there is evidence that the NR supports a broad range of convectively generated waves. The NR precipitation spectrum resembles the observed spectrum in many aspects, including the preference for westward-propagating waves. However, even with very high horizontal resolution and a healthy population of resolved waves, the zonal force provided by the resolved waves is still too low in the QBO region and parameterized gravity wave drag is the main driver of the NR QBO-like oscillation (NR-QBO). The authors suggest that causes include coarse vertical resolution and excessive dissipation. Nevertheless, the very-high-resolution NR provides an opportunity to analyze the resolved wave forcing of the NR-QBO. In agreement with previous studies, large-scale Kelvin and small-scale waves contribute to the NR-QBO driving in eastward shear zones and small-scale waves dominate the NR-QBO driving in westward shear zones. Waves with zonal wavelength < 1000 km account for up to half of the small-scale (<3300 km) resolved wave forcing in eastward shear zones and up to 70% of the small-scale resolved wave forcing in westward shear zones of the NR-QBO.

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The Early Development of the 2015/16 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Disruption

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/jas-d-18-0292.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 76 (3) ◽

pp. 821-836 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Pu Lin ◽

Isaac Held ◽

Yi Ming

Keyword(s):

Wave Packet ◽

Early Development ◽

Wave Structure ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Westerly Jet ◽

Tropical Waves ◽

Momentum Fluxes ◽

Main Driver ◽

Biennial Oscillation

Abstract An unprecedented disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) started to develop from late 2015. The early development of this event is analyzed using the space–time spectra of eddies from reanalysis data. While the extratropical waves propagating horizontally into the tropics were assumed to be the main driver for the disruption, it was not clear why these waves dissipated near the jet core instead of near the jet edge as linear theory predicts. This study shows that the drastic deceleration of the equatorial jet was largely brought about by a single strong wave packet, and the local winds experienced by the wave packet served as a better indicator of the wave breaking latitude than the zonal mean winds. Surprisingly, tropical mixed Rossby–gravity waves also made an appreciable contribution to the deceleration of the equatorial westerly jet by the horizontal eddy momentum fluxes, especially before January 2016. The horizontal eddy momentum fluxes associated with the tropical waves arise from the deformation of the wave structure when background westerlies increase with height. These horizontal eddy momentum anomalies from the tropical waves are commonly observed in the reanalysis data but are typically much weaker than those in the 2015/16 winter. The possibility exists that exceptionally strong equatorially trapped waves precondition the flow to disruption by an extratropical disturbance.

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