scholarly journals Recurrence of earthquakes in the area of the Toktogul HPP cascade

2021 ◽  
Vol 929 (1) ◽  
pp. 012032
Author(s):  
B Ts Manzhikov
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Recurrence Period ◽  
Accumulation Characteristics

Abstract A brief statistical analysis of the current seismicity of the Toktogul region of the Kyrgyz Republic is done. The analysis concerns the region where the Toktogul HPP cascade on the Naryn River is located, and covers the period from 1973 to 2021 years. The space-time distributions of earthquakes, accumulation characteristics, probability and recurrence of seismic events of various magnitudes are considered. According to the analysis results, the maximum magnitude of seismic events in the Toktogul region can be ∼ 7.4, and the recurrence period of earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥ 7 and above T ≥ 10 years is equal.

Which Earthquakes are Expected to Exceed the Design Spectra?

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 1465-1483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iunio Iervolino ◽  
Massimiliano Giorgio ◽  
Pasquale Cito
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
National Level ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Probabilistic Measure ◽  
Design Spectra ◽  
Earthquake Resistant Design ◽  
Safety Margins ◽  
Earthquake Resistant ◽  
Elastic Design

Extended recording coverage of contemporary seismic events allows a comparison of observed seismic actions with their counterparts used for design. Said comparison shows actions systematically exceeding design spectra. This paper discusses: (1) that considered exceedances can be anticipated by the probabilistic seismic hazard on the basis of which design actions are determined, (2) exceedances of elastic design actions are expected for earthquakes occurring close to the site even if their magnitude is far from the maximum magnitude considered in the hazard assessment, and (3) design spectra are likely to be exceeded in epicentral areas of earthquakes that occur frequently in the region where the code is enforced, but rarely occur close to the site under consideration. In fact, code-mandated protection against these earthquakes is factually warranted by the rarity with which they are expected to occur near the structure and other safety margins implicit to earthquake-resistant design. All these issues, addressed with reference to Italy, are discussed with the intent not to criticize the way spectra are determined, but rather to raise awareness and give a probabilistic measure about what to factually expect from state-of-the-art design at a national level.

scholarly journals Economic and Statistical Analysis of Trade and Economic Cooperation Between the Kyrgyz Republic and the Russian Federation

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 51-64
Author(s):  
F. Santiago-Rodriguez ◽  
I. S. Lola
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Foreign Economic Policy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Trade And Investment

The authors developed economic and statistical analysis on bilateral economic and trade and investment partnership between the Republic of Kyrgyzstan and the Russian Federation for the past decade and formulated proposals for the further coordination of long-term foreign economic policy.The paper provides an analytical review of intercountry trade and investment cooperation with emphasis on manufacturing. It is based on data from various international organizations (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Eurasian Economic Commission) and the National statistical committee of the Kyrgyz Republic. Extensive statistical material supports the thesis on using the benefits of integration for the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic, even though it remains dependent on political fluctuations and has an underdeveloped business environment.The authors examine the implementation of bilateral contracts, projects and agreements from 2008 to 2016, with an emphasis on critical long-term interests of two states, and discuss perspectives for trade and economic cooperation in the medium and long terms. They also cover questions regarding coordination of economic policy in the abovementioned areas. Considerable attention is given to evidence-based reasoning in favor of strengthening the Russian-Kyrgyz partnership in the field of trade and investment. There is also a need for statistical support for the implementation of joint programs to improve the sustainability and competitiveness of national economies, as well as a broad integration cooperation agenda within the Eurasian Economic Union and other associations.

2000-2020: Two Decades of Evolution of Hydraulic Fracturing-Induced Seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Germán Rodríguez-Pradilla ◽  
David Eaton ◽  
Melanie Popp
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Sedimentary Basin ◽  
Unit Area ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Western Canada Sedimentary Basin ◽  
Canada Sedimentary Basin

Abstract The goal of this work is to calibrate a regional predictive model for maximum magnitude of seismic activity associated with hydraulic-fracturing in low-permeability formations in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). Hydraulic fracturing data (i.e. total injected volume, injection rate, and pressure) were compiled from more than 40,000 hydraulic-fractured wells in the WCSB. These wells were drilled into more than 100 different formations over a 20-year period (January 1st, 2000 and January 1st, 2020). The total injected volume per unit area was calculated utilizing an area of 0.2° in longitude by 0.1° in latitude (or approximately 13x11km, somewhat larger than a standard township of 6x6 miles). This volume was then used to correlate with reported seismicity in the same unit areas. Collectively, within the 143 km2 area considered in this study, a correlation between the total injected volume and the maximum magnitude of seismic events was observed. Results are similar to the maximum-magnitude forecasting model proposed by A. McGarr (JGR, 2014) for seismic events induced by wastewater injection wells in central US. The McGarr method is also based on the total injected fluid per well (or per multiple nearby wells located in the same unit area). However, in some areas in the WCSB, lower injected fluid volumes than the McGarr model predicts were needed to induce seismic events of magnitude 3.0 or higher, although with a similar linear relation. The result of this work is the calculation of a calibration parameter for the McGarr model to better predict the magnitudes of seismic events associated with the injected volumes of hydraulic fracturing. This model can be used to predict induced seismicity in future unconventional hydraulic fracturing treatments and prevent large-magnitude seismic events from occurring. The rich dataset available from the WCSB allowed us to carry out a robust analysis of the influence of critical parameters (such as the total injected fluid) in the maximum magnitude of seismic events associated with the hydraulic-fracturing stimulation of unconventional wells. This analysis could be replicated for any other sedimentary basin with unconventional wells by compiling similar stimulation and earthquake data as in this study.

scholarly journals BARENTS-EURO/ARCTIC

2019 ◽  
pp. 232-239
Author(s):  
Sergey Baranov ◽  
Sergey Petrov
Keyword(s):  
Remote Monitoring ◽  
Seismic Energy ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Seismic Emission ◽  
Murmansk Region ◽  
Tectonic Earthquakes ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Strong Seasonality ◽  
Digital Equipment

Continuous seismic monitoring of the Kola Peninsula and the Spitsbergen archipelago with adjacent water areas was carried out. Seismic events were recorded using digital equipment. Operational catalogs of earth-quakes were compiled. Great attention is paid to the improvement of systems for seismic and infrasonic monitoring. Seventeen seismic events with magnitudes from 0.8 to 2.8 which can be interpreted as tectonic earthquakes were recorded in the Baltic Shield area. The strongest earthquakes were recorded in the Arkhangelsk region (28.03.2013, M=2.9), in northern Norway (09.02.2013, MLрег=2.8), and in northern Finland (21.11.2013, MLрег=2.7). The maximum magnitude of the event in the Murmansk region was 2.3. The seismic activity in 2013 was the lowest over the last five-year period (from 2009 to 2013). The Spitsbergen archipelago was characterized by the smallest number of earthquakes in all ranges of magnitudes and by the smallest amount of released seismic energy for the five-year period from 2009 to 2013. The experimental research to monitor seismic and infrasonic emissions generated by glaciers was carried out using a seismic and infrasonic system installed before in the Spitsbergen archipelago. In particular, the seismic emission generated by the Isfjord glaciers has a strong seasonality. Activation is observed in the second half of summer and continues until the 20th of September. As a result of the studies, the possibility of remote monitoring of the destruction of glaciers by the seismic and infrasonic method was convincingly demonstrated

Statistical analysis of space–time relationships between sprites and lightning

2003 ◽  
Vol 65 (5) ◽  
pp. 525-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernanda T São Sabbas ◽  
Davis D Sentman ◽  
Eugene M Wescott ◽  
Osmar Pinto ◽  
Odim Mendes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Space Time
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